I feel like the Dems are done at this point, unless they cheat, they have like no chance.
The amount of Trump converts are going to be super minimal, so they cannot bank on the changing of sides. The only canidates that were strong enough to have significant conversion were that of Bernie, Yang and Tulsi. Joe is a complete joke and the Boomer ideal of what a centrist candidate looks like, so no young people want to vote him in. He is a do-nothing candidate, so Trump supporters will get nothing other than an administration they hated coming back.
The problem does not just lye with Trump supporters though. Bernie supporters, or progressives, are speculated to have a higher turnout for Trump than Biden. A 15% to 9% if I remember correctly. Progressives want change, but Biden and Kamala are the most stagnant candidates they can offer. At best, had the Dems picked a progressive, they could have salvaged a few votes. I am guessing many would still turn away, but more would vote if they were given something. Point is, Bernie split the party, and by having two corrupt establishment powers, they are guaranteed to lose a huge chunk of the Democrats own voters’ base.
Now we have to look at moderates. Neither Biden nor Kamala have anything going for them. They are considered settle-for candidates. What push could they possibly give the moderate voter? It does not help that Kamala has a history of corrupt police antics that will likely dissuade anyone who was hurt by the footage shown of George Flyod. Kamala has imprisoned so many black Americans unjustly or for petty crimes, not to mention what her school idea implies as a destruction of the struggling family is an outcome to locking up single parents for delinquents.
At this point the Dems are riding on the older generations and radicals. The older gens still see value in CNN reporting and are fully convinced that they are right. The radicals will like both because democrats and representation. But even then, will electing a corrupt police split up the radicals, and will the older gens remember the debates? Only time will tell I suppose.