2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Salubrious]

Does NYC not basically decide everything regarding electoral votes for the state? I assume all of the NYC-types migrate from enough districts for that to be the case. I hope you're right as it'd be an amazing sight to behold but I am very dubious of it ever happening.

There's so many people in NYC that are so heavily blue that the rest of Upstate NY can't catch up. But like the rest of the country, anything not a decent size city is Red. The three blue counties in the west are the cities of Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse. (The city of Ithaca is a surprising Dark Blue to me). But as you can see, even in 2016 they were only a light shade of blue. If NYC gets a little bit lighter and some of those light reds get a bit darker, it can get more interesting in 16-20 years.

 

[break these cuffs]

There's so many people in NYC that are so heavily blue that the rest of Upstate NY can't catch up. But like the rest of the country, anything not a decent size city is Red. The three blue counties in the west are the cities of Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse. (The city of Ithaca is a surprising Dark Blue to me). But as you can see, even in 2016 they were only a light shade of blue. If NYC gets a little bit lighter and some of those light reds get a bit darker, it can get more interesting in 16-20 years.

View attachment 1532781

New Yorkers have been fleeing upstate for years and the wuflu has only accelerated it. The initial trickle bought second homes and have been petitioning local and county governments to put in higher speed internet access and other infrastructure to make it more appealing to other New Yorkers. The new wave is now moving out there to escape the wuflu and the new infrastructure allows them to work from home and live there full time. The pink areas around the city may flip light blue in 20 years. Moving out to the country to have a homestead or hobby farm and get back to nature has been a trend for yuppies and hipsters as well. It's big up here in New England and is happening down there as well.

The rats are fleeing their cities and infecting the countryside.

 

[BeboRefugee]

There's so much I disagree with that it's not worth the effort to go point by point. But I will address this gem of yours:

I can tell you have a leftist brain by this response. You propose a solution that you don't even know exists and it never dawns on you to first see if it exists before proposing it. Next time you say someone should do something, try knowing what that something is first.

"I'm sure there was..." Lol. So even widening your search to outside the people who ran, you still can't identify anyone in the party. By virtue of the fact this unknown, possibly non existent person did not run, you can conclude that they did not want to run or no such person exists. So what's your plan to make them run, if they even do exist?

So I have a leftist brain assuming one of the biggest political parties in the world could find somebody who looks good in a suit and didn't attend a communist rally in college? Thought they'd be more tactical than promoting a duo with the combined charisma of a dead geisha.
I'm trying to be constructive here, and I'm kind of regretting since this post is you gloating I didn't give an anecdote when my last post was getting far too long in the teeth anyway.

Had Tulsi not antagonised the Clinton faction she'd have fit this niche, and there's gotta be more like her. Her weird baggage would be about as manageable as Obama's, and the media's more biased than ever if you need me to put forth a cast iron example.

 

[Salubrious]

New Yorkers have been fleeing upstate for years and the wuflu has only accelerated it. The initial trickle bought second homes and have been petitioning local and county governments to put in higher speed internet access and other infrastructure to make it more appealing to other New Yorkers. The new wave is now moving out there to escape the wuflu and the new infrastructure allows them to work from home and live there full time. The pink areas around the city may flip light blue in 20 years. Moving out to the country to have a homestead or hobby farm and get back to nature has been a trend for yuppies and hipsters as well. It's big up here in New England and is happening down there as well.

The rats are fleeing their cities and infecting the countryside.

That is true to an extent; my counter is that taxes are so high even state wide, I'm hearing more that people are fleeing out of state rather than upstate.

So I think the northeastern counties near the Adirondacks will get more blue, but at the expense of the darker blue of the five borroughs. I still think overall the state will slide towards the purple side overall with people fleeing the state entirely, even if some more counties shade a bit bluer.

In 2016, the Bronx was 88-9 for Hillary, NY county was 86-10, Kings county was 80-18, Queens was 75-22, Tompkins was 68-25, and Westchester was 65-31. Hillary did not get 60% in any other counties. Even Albany was only 59-34. Hell, Buffalo (Erie County) was 51-45. It would be an upset, but Buffalo flipping red even in 2020 would not shock me.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

I am a little curious about New York state. I know Biden will win, but it's been trending red lately. It went from 63-35 in 2012 to 59-36 in 2016. That's a 5 point loss. I'd bet with the rioting, COVID bungling, and fleeing NYC, I wonder if it will be closer to 55-42/43. That would be a 10 point loss election to election.

I think that was mostly due to Hillary having her share of haters in NY. We've known a long time how awful she is.

And, yes, the majority of NY is red. Other than Ithaca, every metro region overall is red. Despite knowing all our votes statewide and beyond mean fuck all. NYC has all the population and still does easily even if a million leave.

 

[Salubrious]

I think that was mostly due to Hillary having her share of haters in NY. We've known a long time how awful she is.

And, yes, the majority of NY is red. Other than Ithaca, every metro region overall is red. Despite knowing all our votes statewide and beyond mean fuck all. NYC has all the population and still does easily even if a million leave.

It does, but I also feel like it's chipping away little by little.

I think we'll get to 2032, and NYS will only be like 55-45 blue, and the DNC will start to worry a little bit. I expect it to be down to 56-57% this year in fact (it was 59% in 2016).

 

[heyitsmike]

So I have a leftist brain assuming one of the biggest political parties in the world could find somebody who looks good in a suit and didn't attend a communist rally in college?

Yes.

Personally, when my bright ideas get shown to be stupid ideas, I generally look around to make sure no one saw and... then never tell a soul about it. You saw the entire primary process unfold, that no one like the person you described ever emerged and still proposed it as a solution.

Had Tulsi not antagonised the Clinton faction she'd have fit this niche, and there's gotta be more like her.

Not true at all. Tulsi, unlike the rest of the Dems, has the ability to at least appear normal. She doesn't hate America. She doesn't hate Republicans. She doesn't support abortion up until the moment of birth. And she doesn't support the military industrial complex. That is enough to be anathema to the DNC, even before it got personal with Killary.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Of course, the American left is more schismatic than the American right (thankfully, or we'd be fucked) so it's not as relevant as this meme is.

The right has New Right (ideological conservatives), Bush-style "compassionate conservatives", managerial conservatives, neo-cons, libertarians, pro-business executives, Tea Party hybrids, and fundamental Christians. All of these were represented by specific candidates in the 2016 primary, and they had all been fighting for the party since 2012.

And then they were all blown out of the water by a populist civic nationalist, Donald Trump.

We can get into the additional schisms on the fringe right if you want: alt right, alt lite, white nationalist, protectionist, theocratic Christians, etc. But the point is, the right has way more ideological strains than the left gives it credit for. They just stopped getting as much air time once Trump ran over everyone on both sides.

 

[BeboRefugee]

Yes.

Personally, when my bright ideas get shown to be stupid ideas, I generally look around to make sure no one saw and... then never tell a soul about it. You saw the entire primary process unfold, that no one like the person you described ever emerged and still proposed it as a solution.

And surely somebody as smart as you gets calling somebody stupid and insulting them when they were trying to have a conversation really makes you look like the dick?
Look at some of the no-names shortlisted for VP and tell me Biden's original campaign plan wasn't to fly as far under the radar as possible, and at the very least pose like moderates.

 

[GuntPunt]

Part of Obama's speech leaked. Crossposting from the TDS thread.

 

[heyitsmike]

And surely somebody as smart as you gets calling somebody stupid and insulting them when they were trying to have a conversation really makes you look like the dick?
Look at some of the no-names shortlisted for VP and tell me Biden's original campaign plan wasn't to fly as far under the radar as possible, and at the very least pose like moderates.

I didn't call you stupid, but I am calling you functionally illiterate. I called the ideas stupid, not you. Notice I said I have stupid ideas too. What makes them stupid, both mine and yours, is when later events conclusively show them to be dead wrong. There is no other candidate like the one you described in the Democratic Party. Therefore your idea has been proven wrong. Period.

And yes, I've seen the shortlist. No one is arguing that wasn't Biden's plan. It's plain as day. But like we are all trying to say, they can't even manage to fake being moderate and sane and normal. They simply don't have it in them.

 

[RedStorm]

I mean if Biden wasn't suffering from Dementia he'd be in a much more secure position, right? And the results from Super Tuesday clearly spelled out how, absent a reviled figure to rally against, Bernie's policies just can't win against a moderate within their party.
The Dems were pitching him as a generic D candidate with a 'return to normalcy'. He was even visibly standing in opposition to half of Bernie's platform. What they're suffering with now, even ignoring his mental state + Kamala, is how their platform is totally uninspiring to their base. Even if Biden promises to abolish college tuition, nobody will believe him. You remember 2016, right? How envigorated Trump's side was? Because they thought he could change things, and he hasn't. I see its because the Deep State and RINOs are hamstringing him, but its still inhibiting (there was a demoralising element at play in 2018 at least), meanwhile the DNC have the entire media apparatus on-side to push Generic D over the line.... before the riots, at least.


Trump staked his 2020 run on the economy, and its in the shitter, with 200k dead. That alone was enough for the Dems to run with.
As for e-celebs, how many were vocal Trump supporters in 2016 and have now since left the stage? Better yet, there were plenty pro-Bernie people that just wound up being anti-Hillary. I don't consider the Charlottesville crew particularly relevant, have they ever influenced policy? And I bring up Ann Coulter because she gave Trump a copy of Adios America in summer 2015, and then a couple weeks later he started lifting policy suggestions from it verbatim because the crowds cheered loudly enough when he floated the ideas.
When Trump isn't delivering the concrete Big Beautiful Wall, I'm calling it out-- underdelivery at best.
And when Trump horse-trades with Nancy Pelosi and Schumer over giving Amnesty in return for wall funding? I'm gonna call it out. It's hard to ignore. He's the president and he had a majority in both houses for 2 years, he shouldn't have to horse-trade if it means sacrificing a key campaign promise.

You can call his critics useful idiots, but it doesn't change the fact their ideas were crucial in getting him over the line. Bannon still carries water for him, yet Trump talks about him like he's a piece of shit on twitter. Again, I hope he wins, but before the riots I just couldn't conceive any way of that happening.

It's autism to go "Giant Concrete Wall or Bust" when the see through bollard wall is *FASTER* to build, is actually *POSSIBLE* given that the Paul Ryan 2017-2018 congress or the Nancy Pelosi 2019-2020 congress would never fund a concrete one, and border security specifically preferred a see through bollard wall rather than a Giant Concrete one.

If Trump tried to stick to a Giant Concrete Wall or nothing, then he'd have gotten nothing (basic American politics; kind of like how Obama would never have gotten 100% free college and single payer healthcare), and the autists would be even angrier.

Ann Coulter's book being catchy for the crowds doesn't matter when she's gone full lunatic since 2017. You can claim she's "holding Trump's feet to the fire" but what's really going on is menopausal screeching and outright lies.

Bannon tried to war with the GOP in 2017 when *we needed the GOP on our side*. If Trump alienated the GOP establishment in 2017 they probably would have kicked him out in favor of Pence when impeachment started.

That is interesting but, as someone who's barely ever been there, isn't it also filled with absolutely fucking insane retards and corruption?

@Salubrious

Getting past 40% in New York is possible (George Dubya Bush did it in 2004 because of goodwill from 9/11). Getting past 50% is impossible if you don't have the D next to your name.

I'll be aiming to help Trump get past 40% in New York (I live here).

 

[legalkochi]

Third day of Dementia National Convention had started, and they begin with the most low-energy person possible, Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers.

He almost put me to sleep, until he said "Holy mackerel, folks, let's get to work."

Pure cringe.

And they're still going with their poor imitation of the #WalkAway movement with "Republicans."

Edit: Oh wow, they're gonna try to get the zoomer vote by having Billie Eilish perform tonight. And they're now dedicating a segment to ending "gun violence" with gun control, despite all that is happening... The Democrats are tone deaf.

 

[MrJokerRager]

YouTube hard at work making everything likable for these Day 2 statistics.

 

[Candlelight Desolation]

/pol/ thread is going wild.

 

[RockPaper]

(The city of Ithaca is a surprising Dark Blue to me).

FWIW, I'm not surprised at all because it's an Ivy League town.

 

[Kulee Baba]

Man I now know the Orange Man is bad now that heroin addict Billie Eilish told me so.

 

[Zig Zag]

@Salubrious

Getting past 40% in New York is possible (George Dubya Bush did it in 2004 because of goodwill from 9/11). Getting past 50% is impossible if you don't have the D next to your name.

I'll be aiming to help Trump get past 40% in New York (I live here).

The last time NYS went red at all, and for more than 50%, was in 1984 for incumbent Regan. It went red in 1980 for Regan previously but as you said with less than 50% of the vote. Prior to that, 1972 for incumbent Nixon with almost 60%. Before that, 1956, >60%. NYS may end up being more of a wild card in the near future although right now it is still considered a "solidly blue" state because of the influence of NYC. Trump probably doesn't have a chance of flipping the state this time around as most of the city (except Staten Island and Long Island) hates his guts. But the future is uncertain and this is 2020, so who the fuck knows?

 

[StarkRavingMad]

I think it's really interesting that Trump is so brazenly saying that they're keeping their eyes on the prize with New York. I can't help but ask myself, "Does Trump know something that we don't?"

I mean, at the very least, if Trump can get that 40% in NY, then I think that will definitely help him with the popular vote this time. Or, maybe he's playing the long-term game for the GOP; getting the ball rolling on trying to transform it into a red state eventually like the Dems have been doing with states like Texas. Trump might just be trying to get the GOP to play the same game the Dems have been for decades, and hey, it's about time.

Winning NY this year is one tall fucking order, and I don't expect it. However, let's just say this: If the madman actually does it, then Election Night 2020 is going to be one early night.

 

[XYZpdq]

the "right wing equivalent" of this meme

sorry, this is about ten pages too long for a right wing equivalent meme