2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Just saw this on /pol/ lol.


Annotation 2020-08-20 231719.png
 
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Someone Awful said:
This is why I, unfortunately, think Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will vote blue again and why possible predictions of New York becoming redder are optimistic. I still think Ohio and Iowa will go to Trump no matter what, but I also think their days of being swing states are over.

That means in order for Trump to win, he has to keep every other state he won in 2016 and figure out how to take Minnesota. While I think North Carolina, Georgia, and the 2nd congressional district of Maine and Nebraska will likely go to Trump, Arizona and Florida are much dicier. I have said this before, but Trump needs to put everything he can into winning Arizona, Florida, and Minnesota and hope that an unfaithful electorate doesn't decide to let the House of Representative pick Biden Harris anyway. I also think Trump has a shot of taking Nevada if he can narrow Biden's lead there (but it has also been forever since we last had a poll), but it will only be useful for deal with the potential problem of unfaithful electorates.

I don't think anyone has realized that if the electoral vote is close enough that unfaithful electorates could decide who the next president is, and that is a scary thought.
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I have no idea about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, I do think Ohio is very likely to go to Trump but it's always a swing state. Florida is another perpetual swing state but it also is one of the hardest hit states by COVID-19.

I think Michigan is still very much in play just because of how much Wilmer is hated and I also think Virginia has a chance of flipping red for similar reasons with Northam and how badly the Richmond area was battered by BLM. Trump is more likely to win Michigan than Virginia due to the fact that Wilmer is even more brazenly corrupt and openly detested than Northam is and because the DNC does not want to lose a Southern state that they spent decades turning blue.

I think Arizona is safely red for now but will definitely be a purple state in future elections, and I also think New York flipping red is very optimistic at the absolute best but I can see the GOP getting over the 40% threshold because of how bad Cuomo fucked the state and how bad NYC got battered by the pandemic and the subsequent riots.

Unless the voter turnout is extremely depressed within the wider NYC area and the voter base is extremely energized upstate, I do not think New York will be able to flip red. Same goes for the vote in Oregon, although I think Trump has a slightly better shot at winning Oregon than New York. Slightly.

The big ones to focus on are Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota.

Trump should also do what he can to get more ground game in Arizona, North Carolina, and Virginia in addition to Minnesota and the four key states he won in 2016. This would be both to keep the former three and possibly flip the latter one and make sure he wins the as many of the other five a second time.

Trump winning Minnesota is the kind of thing that can also be a motivating factor in the DNC and the corporate elites fully disavowing the Woke Left should Trump win 2020.

The Dems might win Iowa but it'll be close either way, so Trump should likely do some ground game there too.
 
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Dear Donald Trump,

My name is Estella. I am 11-years-old.

My mom is my best friend. She came to America as a teenager over 20 years ago without papers in search of a better life. She married my dad, who served our country as a Marine in South America, Africa, and Iraq.

My mom worked hard and paid taxes, and the Obama administration told her she could stay.

My dad thought you would protect military families, so he voted for you in 2016, Mr. President. He says he won’t vote for you again after what you did to our family. Instead of protecting us, you tore our world apart. Now, my mom is gone, and she’s been taken from us for no reason at all. Every day that passes, you deport more moms and dads and take them away from kids like me.

You separated thousands of children from their parents, and you put them in cages. Some of those kids are now orphans because of you.

Mr. President, my mom is the wife of a proud American Marine and a mother of two American children. We are American families. We need a president who will bring people together, not tear them apart.
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Yeah, that video's super neat and heart-wrenching and whatever, but Estella's mother is Alejandra Juarez. She was deported in 1998 under Bill Clinton, and caught living in the U.S. again in 2013 during a routine traffic stop. Obama's ICE flagged her for deportation that same year, and by 2018 that deportation order was finally carried out when her number came up.

Obama's administration could have shown leniency and thrown out her deportation order, but instead they reinstated the original one from 1998. I would say that Obama's the one to blame for Alejandra being deported, but the blame is entirely on Alejandra because she won't quit hopping over the goddamned border.
 
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It's HK-47 said:

Yeah, that video's super neat and heart-wrenching and whatever, but Estella's mother is Alejandra Juarez. She was deported in 1998 under Bill Clinton, and caught living in the U.S. again in 2013 during a routine traffic stop. Obama's ICE flagged her for deportation that same year, and by 2018 that deportation order was finally carried out when her number came up.

Obama's administration could have shown leniency and thrown out her deportation order, but instead they reinstated the original one from 1998. I would say that Obama's the one to blame for Alejandra being deported, but the blame is entirely on Alejandra because she won't quit hopping over the goddamned border.
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You missed the part where Trump invented ICE, deportation, and political borders.
 
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Syaoran Li said:
Unless the voter turnout is extremely depressed within the wider NYC area and the voter base is extremely energized upstate, I do not think New York will be able to flip red. Same goes for the vote in Oregon, although I think Trump has a slightly better shot at winning Oregon than New York. Slightly.
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Oregon could be in play. The Dems here over the last 4 years have been shitting the state up by jacking up property taxes and keeping us on lockdown even though we've barely been hit by Corona. Plus Oregon voted Bernie in 2016 and there may be a lot of Bernie bros who will be willing to turn up their nose and vote Trump after a second straight round of fuckery.
 
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HTTP Error 404 said:
And Obama Cages, the FIEND.
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Michelle said Trump did. I choose to believe woman.
Goldman said:
Maps that are really population density maps.
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No. The only correlation has got to be the Trump administration's neverending efforts to revoke the rights of people of color and rob them of their agency to vote.
 
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It's HK-47 said:

Yeah, that video's super neat and heart-wrenching and whatever, but Estella's mother is Alejandra Juarez. She was deported in 1998 under Bill Clinton, and caught living in the U.S. again in 2013 during a routine traffic stop. Obama's ICE flagged her for deportation that same year, and by 2018 that deportation order was finally carried out when her number came up.

Obama's administration could have shown leniency and thrown out her deportation order, but instead they reinstated the original one from 1998. I would say that Obama's the one to blame for Alejandra being deported, but the blame is entirely on Alejandra because she won't quit hopping over the goddamned border.
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And, of course, comments are turned off.
 
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It's HK-47 said:

Yeah, that video's super neat and heart-wrenching and whatever, but Estella's mother is Alejandra Juarez. She was deported in 1998 under Bill Clinton, and caught living in the U.S. again in 2013 during a routine traffic stop. Obama's ICE flagged her for deportation that same year, and by 2018 that deportation order was finally carried out when her number came up.

Obama's administration could have shown leniency and thrown out her deportation order, but instead they reinstated the original one from 1998. I would say that Obama's the one to blame for Alejandra being deported, but the blame is entirely on Alejandra because she won't quit hopping over the goddamned border.
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That looks like an updated version of LBJ's Daisy ad.

 
May I ask, how are the Democrats' finances holding up? After the Floyd riots?
I'm aware they were acutely cash-starved after 2016, and 2018 was a bit of a Hail Mary pass, but didn't a lot of the TENS OF MILLIONS the public donated and HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS private corporations donated, believing it was going to BLM, was in actuality going to DNC surrogates?
Am I retarded? Should this not mean the Democrats have a giant wellspring of money to work with in the last 2 months? So why is their ground game so barren with 0 sign of improvement? I get an unenthusiastic base but Mike Bloomberg paid people to attend his rallies and his entire campaign staff was composed of mercs, I'm sure they'd ride with Biden if the pay was good.
 
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Hyrip123876 said:
May I ask, how are the Democrats' finances holding up? After the Floyd riots?
I'm aware they were acutely cash-starved after 2016, and 2018 was a bit of a Hail Mary pass, but didn't a lot of the TENS OF MILLIONS the public donated and HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS private corporations donated, believing it was going to BLM, was in actuality going to DNC surrogates?
Am I retarded? Should this not mean the Democrats have a giant wellspring of money to work with in the last 2 months? So why is their ground game so barren with 0 sign of improvement? I get an unenthusiastic base but Mike Bloomberg paid people to attend his rallies and his entire campaign staff was composed of mercs, I'm sure they'd ride with Biden if the pay was good.
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lol what finances. The DNC is perpetually broke. Why do you think their Convention looked like it was put together by a high school film club? Because that was literally all they could afford. They have no ground game at all and their structural organization is a total fiasco, staffed completely by unpaid interns, the family of various congressmen, and geriatric boomers. Alot of this is Clintons fault. She and Bill didn't want the DNC to be a rival power structure to their own patronage network, and made it so that there was no daylight between the Clinton Foundation and the DNC since the 90's.

All through the Bush years they carefully neutered the institution so that when 2008 rolled around it would be just one big coronation for Hilldawg. But then Obama crashed into it. He was supposed to be their golden child "up and comer", but the ego of the man could not be contained. He decided he could be President in 2008, and so he built his own grass roots organization to finance and prop him up. Say what you will about Obama, the dude had a great ground game and was brilliant at organizing a political campaign. You could tell in 2008 Clinton was completely unprepared for dealing with an attack from outside her carefully crafted ivory tower.

Of course, she didn't take the right lessons from this. So all through the Obama years the DNC was deliberately broken down into irrelevancy. Obama didn't trust it because he knew it was an extension of his principle political rival within the party, and Clinton didn't want to let go of the leash because it was her turn damn it! This is bad because one of the principle duties of a sitting President is to campaign on behalf of his party. Getting donations rolling in, supporting candidates down ballot. Etc. Obama didn't do this though. What donations he raked in as President went into his personal warchest, not the DNC. Which was Clintons personal war chest. This meant the down ballot of the Democratic Party got absolutely eviscerated over the Obama years. But this was fine for Hillary. Because going into 2016 the outcome was predetermined. She was going to be the Nominee, and President. All that sacrifice and damage to the structure of the party would be worth it, and as President she could finally get around to rebuilding the DNC into something resembling a functional institution.

But then she lost. Which meant no sitting President to help get things back on track. Which meant a totally dysfunctional (by design) institution had 4 years to get its act together and challenge an incumbent President. Something they clearly failed to do. The flailing incompetents at the DNC (who again, were put there by design) are stuck in their base NPC programming loop and simply held another sham Primary. They also have no idea how to make money for the party, beyond desperate begging.
 
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Hyrip123876 said:
May I ask, how are the Democrats' finances holding up? After the Floyd riots?
I'm aware they were acutely cash-starved after 2016, and 2018 was a bit of a Hail Mary pass, but didn't a lot of the TENS OF MILLIONS the public donated and HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS private corporations donated, believing it was going to BLM, was in actuality going to DNC surrogates?
Am I retarded? Should this not mean the Democrats have a giant wellspring of money to work with in the last 2 months? So why is their ground game so barren with 0 sign of improvement? I get an unenthusiastic base but Mike Bloomberg paid people to attend his rallies and his entire campaign staff was composed of mercs, I'm sure they'd ride with Biden if the pay was good.
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Going by how they're acting, I think the rumbling about the tens of millions getting donated via that website backed by ActBlue was heavily astroturfed to drum up more donations. And most of those corporate donations made the effort to pick a pro-black organiztion for their charity besides BLM, because the whole point was pro-black PR. And you bring up Bloomberg as an example, but the artificial nature of his campaign was so blatant that he had staffers actually campaigning for the other candidate on his payroll, and the DNC definitely doesn't want to have that happen.

Unless there's a spree of ads/ground game awaiting us in September, I'm not seeing the signs that they actually got a major windfall out of the Floyd Riots.
 
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mindlessobserver said:
Of course, she didn't take the right lessons from this. So all through the Obama years the DNC was deliberately broken down into irrelevancy. Obama didn't trust it because he knew it was an extension of his principle political rival within the party, and Clinton didn't want to let go of the leash because it was her turn damn it! This is bad because one of the principle duties of a sitting President is to campaign on behalf of his party. Getting donations rolling in, supporting candidates down ballot. Etc. Obama didn't do this though. What donations he raked in as President went into his personal warchest, not the DNC. Which was Clintons personal war chest. This meant the down ballot of the Democratic Party got absolutely eviscerated over the Obama years. But this was fine for Hillary. Because going into 2016 the outcome was predetermined. She was going to be the Nominee, and President. All that sacrifice and damage to the structure of the party would be worth it, and as President she could finally get around to rebuilding the DNC into something resembling a functional institution.

But then she lost. Which meant no sitting President to help get things back on track. Which meant a totally dysfunctional (by design) institution had 4 years to get its act together and challenge an incumbent President. Something they clearly failed to do. The flailing incompetents at the DNC (who again, were put there by design) are stuck in their base NPC programming loop and simply held another sham Primary. They also have no idea how to make money for the party, beyond desperate begging.
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You left out the part where Hillary still did not learn how to deal with outsiders, as Bernie was destroying her in 2016. She was just lucky enough to have friends that would place her at the top.

As for the last 4 years, it is clear that the structure toppling is an effect of the old socialist creating the biggest political divide ever in the party. The Dems only furthered it when they brought up AOC and The Squad, as they are Bernie x10. The entire party is just infighting between an establishment set up in the 90s and a bunch of crazy wannabe Communists.

Trump was smart. He took over the entire Republican party and made it his platform. The Democrats are seen as weak as they have no one person calling the shots, and the divide between establishment and progressive is growing as a result of the failure to act. Either they should have killed off the Bernie wing completely or let him take over. As of now, the indecisiveness is haunting them.
 
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-4ZURE- said:
You left out the part where Hillary still did not learn how to deal with outsiders, as Bernie was destroying her in 2016. She was just lucky enough to have friends that would place her at the top.

As for the last 4 years, it is clear that the structure toppling is an effect of the old socialist creating the biggest political divide ever in the party. The Dems only furthered it when they brought up AOC and The Squad, as they are Bernie x10. The entire party is just infighting between an establishment set up in the 90s and a bunch of crazy wannabe Communists.

Trump was smart. He took over the entire Republican party and made it his platform. The Democrats are seen as weak as they have no one person calling the shots, and the divide between establishment and progressive is growing as a result of the failure to act. Either they should have killed off the Bernie wing completely or let him take over. As of now, the indecisiveness is haunting them.
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There was smarts on the RNC's side as well. They figured out pretty quick which way the wind was blowing. It was clear from the beginning they decided the smart play would be to bend to the wind rather resist. Early on Reince Preibus pretty clearly felt they could just accommodate Trump, and once he lost the election to Hilldawg they could get back to more staid politiking. After he won the election, Paul Ryan and McCain decided to work together to try and keep the institutional state in place. Its why the Republicans didn't accomplish anything in the first two years they controlled both Congress and the Presidency. There was too much daylight between Trump and the institutional party. I think what nobody expected was Mitch McConnell deciding to throw in with Trump. Of all the things to happen in the last 4 years, that was the most surprising. I shouldn't have been though. Mitch rode into the Senate in the 1984 election, so he's the product of a major political realignment. He probably saw something most of the other Republicans didn't in Trump and decided it would be better to hitch his Sail to the wind rather then work against it. Once Mitch was on Trumps side, the RNC just bowed to the inevitable, to the autistic screeching of the "Never Trumpers" who represented the old guard of the two parties, one system methodology that has defined US politics for the last quarter century.

Its going to serve them well for the long haul. The big defining feature of the Trump Presidency is that he's brought on a large number of young people into the Republican parties back bench, and has reshaped the entire Federal judiciary. The Democrats may control the cultural commons, but the Republicans are rapidly ensconcing themselves in the positions of power. Its going to be fascinating to see this play out over the next 20 years.
 
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