Oregon could be in play. The Dems here over the last 4 years have been shitting the state up by jacking up property taxes and keeping us on lockdown even though we've barely been hit by Corona. Plus Oregon voted Bernie in 2016 and there may be a lot of Bernie bros who will be willing to turn up their nose and vote Trump after a second straight round of fuckery.
I just want to add to your statement, because I agree with you. The primary elections in Oregon that were held in May showed a pretty interesting trend. #TimberUnity, a group that has been formed by people who oppose the cap-and-trade legislation that the Oregon Democrats have passed, supported and endorsed conservative Republican candidates for local offices.
And many of their candidates actually won their races outright. From Clatsop County (the county home to Astoria; a county that barely went to Clinton and might actually go for Trump this year) to Clackamas County (which is the swing county of Oregon, along with Marion County and Washington County to a lesser extent) had conservative local candidates win their races outright or force their Democratic incumbents to a runoff. For example, the two conservative candidates running for county commissioner in Clatsop County managed to beat their Democratic incumbent opponents easily and achieved over 50% of the vote, which means that the Clatsop County Board of Commissioners will have a Republican majority.
Same goes for Clackamas County. Clackamas County has a County Commission Chair, Jim Bernard, a Democrat that was elected in 2016. In May, he lost the election to a conservative Republican by the name of Tootie Smith by a good and considerable margin, and another Democratic county commissioner was forced into a run-off with the second best (Republican) candidate, as he did not achieve 50% of the vote.
Now, let me get to the point of why this is significant. Oregon is actually a closed primary state, which means that only registered party members can vote in their party's primaries. Oregon Republicans did have a pretty good turnout in the primary, but not as much as the Democrats. However, a lot of the local offices in many counties are nonpartisan, therefore independents can vote in them (Oregon does have a few counties where party primaries are held for commissioner candidates, like Marion, Deschutes, and Malheur, but they're pretty rare). It turns out that a lot of the independents who voted for the nonpartisan local offices voted for candidates that were conservative and supported by either the local Republican Party or #TimberUnity.
And this was before George Floyd and the riots occurred, so the shift towards conservative candidates winning in Oregon is even stronger now.
It's pretty possible that Trump can win Oregon and I hope he does.