2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Hyrip123876 said:
Its not even about liking or disliking Trump anymore. What do you think the riots would look like if Trump were taken off the board? The reason he's been inactive is because this is very much a states issue. All the states with problems happen to be Democrat-ran, and civilians know this. IF Trump ordered the army impose a curfew, all it'd take is one wounded communist for the media to "wow just wow" at Congress until they impeached the Orange Man anyway. Trump basically has to win this year because even if you leave all the politics at the door, rewarding foul play of this magnitude with the win means USA is basically dead and anybody with the means would need to emigrate to a nation unswayed by American culture ASAP.

What I think is kinda funny though is the location of where the chaos is happening. Minnesota and Wisconsin are the last places you'd want BLM-related destruction happening in an election year. Trump would have been boxed in mathematically if the Blue Wall could be rebuilt, yet polling shows the Dems totally losing the gains they made in 2018 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

You had latino gangs team up with Chicago police to stop black gangs killing them, with a few being deputised on the spot to keep order. That's not a canary in the coal mine for the Coalition of the Ascendant mantra, that's a pile of dead miners. New York, reeling from coronavirus mismanagement, is given new reasons to hate its inept governor and odious mayor. De Blasio's own daughter was arrested in the protests. What the fuck, HOW do you fuck things up so badly that the NYPD endorses a Republican president?! And no, it isn't because both of 'em cameo'd in Home Alone.

Finally, you have the lovable CHAZ and whatever the fuck was happening in Portland... basically proving the whole thing was a ruse anyway. It was never about black lives, it was antifa communists wanting to instigate a revolution under everybody's noses, and wanted the police destroyed, but they also wanted the cover of state institutions and megacorps to do so. It's the most pathetic, entitled insurrection I've ever seen, brought to its knees by a 17 year old who's only crime was failing to protect a furniture store from fire, so settled on the car dealership.

What do you think aliens will think of us when they get the radio signals from earth, and see the combined autism of the left at work this year?
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I assure you, the strategy to deal with riots will look very different after election day.
 
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Closing in on one million.
 
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This article is from today from 538.

Could A Backlash Against Black Lives Matter Hurt Biden? The Two Don’t Appear Linked So Far.


TL;DR
All that said, there could be a bloc of voters who support the protests and currently back Biden but who will shift to Trump because of the riots. We can’t rule out that group emerging. But, crucially, that group has not emerged yet, despite plenty of opportunity. And based on what we’ve seen in June, July and August of this year, there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical that such a group will emerge. In terms of racial issues, America is much different from how it was in 1968 or 1988 — and maybe even in 2016.
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It REALLY seems like the Democrats are putting their heads in the sand if they don't think there is a backlash occurring. That, or their polls are fucked up and they are refusing to question it.

I mean, it's literally provably happened in Wisconsin already.
 
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Syaoran Li said:
I know nothing of the situation in Pennsylvania, but I think he'll be able to keep North Carolina and probably flip Michigan a second time by the narrowest of margins thanks to just how awful Gretchen Wilmer is. Detroit of all places clamped down hard on the BLM and Antifa shit, and I have no reason to think a large portion of Michigan residents will vote Republican just to spite Wilmer and the rioters.

Wisconsin will probably stay red thanks to the Kenosha riots and the fact that Kenosha itself has been hit hard and is in a county with a large population that's been trending like it could turn red in 2020 even before the riots began.

If he can make sure to win Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin again plus flip Minnesota and retain Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa then I think he can win without Pennsylvania but it will be close. Now if he can keep the swing states he won in 2016 and flip Minnesota and possibly Virginia, he'll not only win but it will scare the fuck out of the Democrats.

I'm thinking Minnesota is definitely in play for the GOP for the first time since the 70's and while it's not likely, I do think Trump has a feasible shot at flipping Virginia back to red since Richmond was hit hard by multiple BLM riots and the majority of the counties outside Richmond and NoVA hate Northam for a variety of reasons.

The Dems losing Minnesota (AKA one of the most reliable states outside of the West Coast and New York) and also losing the newly blued Virginia would be a major shock for the DNC and if paired with the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin and the light red states of Arizona and North Carolina, can make a win more likely without Pennsylvania and Michigan

If Trump does win, it will be very close no matter what and the same will apply for Biden as well

I'm hoping for the best, but deep down I'm expecting the absolute worst.
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I have said it before, but Trump can win the election without Pennsylvania and Michigan as long as he keeps every other swing state he won in 2016 and grab Minnesota. He can lose Wisconsin and one of Pennsylvania or Michigan and win the election as long as he keeps either Pennsylvania or Michigan and every other swing state he wins in 2016. Heck, he could lose Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and still win as long as he gets Minnesota and keeps the rest of the Swing States. Of course at that point, a faithless elector might throw the house to the U. S. House of Representative or just give Biden the election since at 270 electoral votes, it would only take one unfaithful electoral vote to change the outcome.

Minnesota being in play for GOP is important because as Hyrip said, it gives Trump more to work with than he did before. Last year, I saw Minnesota going to the GOP as a possibility only because it has been trending purple, but I scratched that off when Trump's approval rating was damaged by COVID-19 and thought the rise in BLM support was the end of not only his election chances but also that of our two-party system. Outside maybe Seattle and Portland, no city has been more badly battered by the riots than Minneapolis. That will be seen as the failure of Democrats, not Trump, and he only needs a 2% leaning towards Red to get it. Heck, I would not be surprised to see a double digit swing to Trump this election like what Iowa got in 2016. If that happens, it could position itself as a light red state for the future.

Like you, I am not expecting Trump to take Virginia. In fact, I would say that it is even less likely than Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Nevada, a state that I think has a slightly less than 50% of turning red. I'd even argue that we're just as likely to see Oregon turn red (though I could see that state gradually turn red) just because of how battle Portland was battered by the riots, which isn't very likely.
contradictionofterns said:
I find it interesting you're citing political betting, but also the 'Harris bump' that Biden got in the polls. This article explicitly states Biden’s odds dropped after he selected Kamala Harris as his running mate Aug. 11.

Sure, the bookie thinks Harris is going to help Biden's odds in the long term, but that might just be hopeful speculation because he's biased. The bets being placed say otherwise.

So if you're wanting to use political bets as your metric, Harris provided no bump, and even negatively impacted Biden's odds.

Sorry for the autistic sperging about combining betting odds + polls. I just think the polls are basically useless at this point and if you're using betting odds it's better to stick with betting odds across the board rather than looking at polls for one thing and betting odds for another.
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It's not that national polls are useful for determining election chances, it's that they are a tool for propaganda to demoralize potential Trump supporters. The point is for the MSM to spin the narrative and say "Haha, you don't matter!" and then get these voters to stay home while hoping to energize the nigger vote. And it looks like it is backfiring as we speak. The riots might end up costing them Minnesota - a state that has voted blue for eleven elections.

So that's why we see polls deliberately oversample Democrats like the YouGov one that said Biden was ahead, but left off the inconvenient fact that it oversampled Democrats by 10% and that Trump was leading the Independent vote by that same percentage. They are also ignoring that the battleground state lead that Biden has is declining and is already smaller than that of Clinton's in 2016. Trump will soon overtake Biden in betting odds and that to me shows how confident the DNC actually are in Biden. If he's barely beating Trump in betting odds now, how do they actually feel about Biden's chances even with cheating, stealing, and lying all the way to the end.
Tathagata said:
Voter registration in Pennsylvania is much tighter now than it was in 2016 when Trump won. That indicates a surge in identified Republicans, at least. There is some evidence.
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I assume you are referring to this, right? It's fascinating how the Republicans closed the gap by about 130,000 compared to a presidential election they won in 2016. Now I'm still hesitant to say it will turn red, but this makes the possibility slightly less surprising.

If nothing else, I do think Trump has a better shot of winning 2020 than he did in 2016. I all but wrote Trump off in 2016, but I think he has a decent shot of being re-elected and not one I am staying home for.
 
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Someone Awful said:
I have said it before, but Trump can win the election without Pennsylvania and Michigan as long as he keeps every other swing state he won in 2016 and grab Minnesota. He can lose Wisconsin and one of Pennsylvania or Michigan and win the election as long as he keeps either Pennsylvania or Michigan and every other swing state he wins in 2016. Heck, he could lose Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and still win as long as he gets Minnesota and keeps the rest of the Swing States. Of course at that point, a faithless elector might throw the house to the U. S. House of Representative or just give Biden the election since at 270 electoral votes, it would only take one unfaithful electoral vote to change the outcome.

Minnesota being in play for GOP is important because as Hyrip said, it gives Trump more to work with than he did before. Last year, I saw Minnesota going to the GOP as a possibility only because it has been trending purple, but I scratched that off when Trump's approval rating was damaged by COVID-19 and thought the rise in BLM support was the end of not only his election chances but also that of our two-party system. Outside maybe Seattle and Portland, no city has been more badly battered by the riots than Minneapolis. That will be seen as the failure of Democrats, not Trump, and he only needs a 2% leaning towards Red to get it. Heck, I would not be surprised to see a double digit swing to Trump this election like what Iowa got in 2016. If that happens, it could position itself as a light red state for the future.

Like you, I am not expecting Trump to take Virginia. In fact, I would say that it is even less likely than Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Nevada, a state that I think has a slightly less than 50% of turning red. I'd even argue that we're just as likely to see Oregon turn red (though I could see that state gradually turn red) just because of how battle Portland was battered by the riots, which isn't very likely.It's not that national polls are useful for determining election chances, it's that they are a tool for propaganda to demoralize potential Trump supporters. The point is for the MSM to spin the narrative and say "Haha, you don't matter!" and then get these voters to stay home while hoping to energize the nigger vote. And it looks like it is backfiring as we speak. The riots might end up costing them Minnesota - a state that has voted blue for eleven elections.

So that's why we see polls deliberately oversample Democrats like the YouGov one that said Biden was ahead, but left off the inconvenient fact that it oversampled Democrats by 10% and that Trump was leading the Independent vote by that same percentage. They are also ignoring that the battleground state lead that Biden has is declining and is already smaller than that of Clinton's in 2016. Trump will soon overtake Biden in betting odds and that to me shows how confident the DNC actually are in Biden. If he's barely beating Trump in betting odds now, how do they actually feel about Biden's chances even with cheating, stealing, and lying all the way to the end.I assume you are referring to this, right? It's fascinating how the Republicans closed the gap by about 130,000 compared to a presidential election they won in 2016. Now I'm still hesitant to say it will turn red, but this makes the possibility slightly less surprising.

If nothing else, I do think Trump has a better shot of winning 2020 than he did in 2016. I all but wrote Trump off in 2016, but I think he has a decent shot of being re-elected and not one I am staying home for.
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I do think Virginia has a better chance of flipping red than Oregon does because most of the state is super-conservative outside of Richmond and NoVA. If the "Sanctuary Counties" are any indication, I think Virginia has a decent shot of going red one last time.

Trump flipping Virginia is about on the same level of likelihood as him winning Nevada but more likely than Oregon.

Otherwise I agree with you completely and I'm definitely voting on Election Day
 
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Someone Awful said:
So that's why we see polls deliberately oversample Democrats like the YouGov one that said Biden was ahead, but left off the inconvenient fact that it oversampled Democrats by 10% and that Trump was leading the Independent vote by that same percentage. They are also ignoring that the battleground state lead that Biden has is declining and is already smaller than that of Clinton's in 2016. Trump will soon overtake Biden in betting odds and that to me shows how confident the DNC actually are in Biden. If he's barely beating Trump in betting odds now, how do they actually feel about Biden's chances even with cheating, stealing, and lying all the way to the end.
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You managed to be way more eloquent about saying what I was vaguely stabbing towards. Excellent summary! 👌

I'll merely add that if you like tracking stats this article had an interesting one. I appreciated this breakdown of recent numbers they provided.

'Donald Trump continues to dominate the betting ahead of the US election, in the last seven days he’s accounted for 59% of all bets placed in the 2020 US Election betting market. Joe Biden has only accounted for 33% of all bets in the same period. A deeper dive into the 2020 US Election betting market shows that in the last week, just over 76% more people have opted to bet on Donald Trump winning the November election.'
 
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heyitsmike said:
The thing I like most about Trump is how unapologetically brazen he is. Fuck the Hatch Act.
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You just know that Trump has consulted his legal team about this for months now to get the ok. He knows exactly how his detractors are going to frame this. I look forward to them trying to impeach him over this and failing.
 
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Salubrious said:
This article is from today from 538.

Could A Backlash Against Black Lives Matter Hurt Biden? The Two Don’t Appear Linked So Far.


TL;DR


It REALLY seems like the Democrats are putting their heads in the sand if they don't think there is a backlash occurring. That, or their polls are fucked up and they are refusing to question it.

I mean, it's literally provably happened in Wisconsin already.
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They've banned everyone who disagrees with them, purged all conservatives from their institutions and have engaged in duplicitous use of statistics to get polling data they like. It's less them having their heads in the sand and more that they have purposefully blinded themselves. Contrary to belief, ignorance is not bliss.
 
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Obama was the first post World War 2 president to lose electoral votes in his reelection run. Nixon and Regan bascially gained more votes on their 2nd tries.

If Trump gains more states then I guess we can all call him the true president of diversity over King Nigger who actually lost states which then leads to 2016. Also it means that the public has faith in the GOP if Trump gains more states than last time. I predict him to get around 320 electoral votes in a potential win.

George Bush got fucked by Ross Perot. Jimmy Carter got nuked by the Iranian Revolution, the failure to rescue the hostages and the OPEC oil embargo. Gerald Ford was a VP who just go in the White House because Nixon cucked out and Jimmy Carter southern strategied him hard.

This 1976 electoral map is just so mind boggling to look at.

en.wikipedia.org

1976 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

1976_Electoral_College_Map.png
 
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jeb-sama2 said:
Things have been going pretty good for Don recently. What type of highly convenient tragedy will happen in weeks before the election to try and derail all of this?
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Unfortunately, Joe Biden's dementia caused him to forget not to shoot himself in the back of the head, and brave woman fronthole-haver Hillary Clinton, a political newcomer and all-round goodhearted soul will fill in for him. Her base of energized fanatics will skyrocket her poll numbers and she will win the Electoral vote by an unprecedented 1,000-0.
 
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Salubrious said:
I know the media is going to report everything is all roses, but I don't see how an impartial person can look at those numbers, look at what's happening in the midwest states, and say "yep, those reports of Biden being up 8-10 points are true alright!"
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"How can anyone look at the polls and think Donald Trump has a chance? Hillary has this in the bag!"

Remember: They didn't realize they needed to cheat in 2016 until it was too late. Expect fuckery. The only thing the left cares about is clawing their way back into power before the DOJ starts arresting them.
 
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