2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[GuntPunt]

Anyone who has any idea on why Biden is gaining on Trump in betting odds suddenly?

Depends on what betting odds. If you are talking about the RCP graph, its responding to the "vets are suckers" story.

 

[Someone Awful]

Doesn't change the fact that this election is pretty much two senile old man trying to become President of the states.

Remember that old AvP tagline "Whoever wins, we lose" This can be applied to the 2020 election as a whole.

Also I think he's lost Utah's vote.

Dude, Trump isn't senile. He's not having to stay in the White House to make his concession speech pre-recorded like Biden likely did.

Also, lol at losing Utah. You think Trump is going to one one of the most solidly Republican state this year? If anything, it will swing back red.

RCP average last time i checked today had Biden at 53.8% and Trump at 45.5%.

Saw that too. GuntPunt pointed out it's likely because of the "veterans are suckers" fake news story but I doubt that's making a big impact on potential votes as even my leftists friends don't buy this bullshit.

 

[BlackDragoons]

Dude, Trump isn't senile. He's not having to stay in the White House to make his concession speech pre-recorded like Biden likely did.

Also, lol at losing Utah. You think Trump is going to one one of the most solidly Republican state this year? If anything, it will swing back red.

Saw that too. GuntPunt pointed out it's likely because of the "veterans are suckers" fake news story but I doubt that's making a big impact on potential votes as even my leftists friends don't buy this bullshit.

Yeah he is senile, you saying it isn't doesn't change that fact. Also you don't realize how close we where to flipping third party during the 2018 election and with Mitt Romney fully against Trump well he has lost the majority of the Mormon vote.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

Anyone who has any idea on why Biden is gaining on Trump in betting odds suddenly?

Mostly the polls that came out on the 1st which didn't show a significant change, I think many were expecting a slight RNC bump after the lull in polls in the end of August. And you have the Nate Unobtaniums saying Biden got a bump.

The vets are suckers nonsense also caught on. A lot of voters seem to be from the UK, and they overstate how Muricans want to shoot everyone.

 

[Someone Awful]

Yeah he is senile, you saying it isn't doesn't change that fact. Also you don't realize how close we where to flipping third party during the 2018 election and with Mitt Romney fully against Trump well he has lost the majority of the Mormon vote.

So where are you basing your assumption that Trump is senile is from? You know full well the hostile media would be absolutely hammering him if he was even close to being as being cognitively defunct as Biden is.

Also most people hate Mitt Romney as he is considered the butt and joke of the new Republican establishment that is forming. Utah was already solidly Republican prior to Romney being the candidate in 2012. I doubt Mormons, who have historically been reliable Republicans, will suddenly shift to vote for Biden.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

Lol. He's not. It's the opposite. Trump is back to even in the betting odds.

There was suddenly a huge flood of +2 to 9 Joe Biden results from the betting odds sites. They were within 0.2% of each other at one point.

 

[heyitsmike]

RCP average last time i checked today had Biden at 53.8% and Trump at 45.5%.

Touché. Looks like you're right, Biden is again the favorite.

Judging by the fact that the odds reversed almost exactly as they returned to 50:50, I would suspect the action is people who believe Biden will win and want to get in at a higher payoff.

If you think Biden will win and want to put down $100, you will get a much nicer return on September 8 than you would when he was favorited on August 8. So people rush in and put money on Biden, which displays as Biden raising his odds.

And the opposite for Trump. I don't bet on events, but if I did, I would have thrown down last month. Getting 1:2 odds of Trump winning, knowing he has yet to figuratively bludgeon Biden over the head in the debates in basically like getting free money.

Same as in the stock market. AAPL or some other stock gets hammered for a couple days straight and then makes a huge rally. That rally is from people who still like the stock's fundamentals and want to take advantage of the discount. A bunch of people flood in to buy it cheap, which raises the price and displays as a huge rally.

 

[GuntPunt]

Peoples Pundit just threatened to sue Nate Silver for slander.

Somewhat justified, but lol. Everyone who runs a political podcast will begin to exhibit lolcow tendencies. Let's call that "Bloodsports Law."

 

[It's HK-47]

Yeah he is senile, you saying it isn't doesn't change that fact.

Saying he's senile also does not make him senile. I'd be more than willing to entertain any evidence, but considering that he jets around the country on a nearly constant basis to hold events for the upcoming election while also performing all of the duties of the office, makes time out of the day to attend additional events that almost never get publicized, and consistently holds press events where he's dealing with an overtly-hostile Press without getting caught up in any of their loaded questions, I'm not really seeing any indicators that would fit the literal definition of senility.

 

[RockPaper]

Saying he's senile also does not make him senile. I'd be more than willing to entertain any evidence, but considering that he jets around the country on a nearly constant basis to hold events for the upcoming election while also performing all of the duties of the office, makes time out of the day to attend additional events that almost never get publicized, and consistently holds press events where he's dealing with an overtly-hostile Press without getting caught up in any of their loaded questions, I'm not really seeing any indicators that would fit the literal definition of senility.

I see no real difference in Trump between now and ten years ago.

This is just "neener-neener no Trump's the one with dementia, incel!" because it's clear Biden is actually compromised.

 

[CrippleThreat]

Saying he's senile also does not make him senile. I'd be more than willing to entertain any evidence, but considering that he jets around the country on a nearly constant basis to hold events for the upcoming election while also performing all of the duties of the office, makes time out of the day to attend additional events that almost never get publicized, and consistently holds press events where he's dealing with an overtly-hostile Press without getting caught up in any of their loaded questions, I'm not really seeing any indicators that would fit the literal definition of senility.

Plus. Trump is 74 years old while doing all of this. He could be getting a Joe Biden level of drug cocktail or he's actually on that "high-energy" crack/cocaine. It's not as if we're seeing bodily scars, a la Biden though.

 

[BlackDragoons]

So where are you basing your assumption that Trump is senile is from? You know full well the hostile media would be absolutely hammering him if he was even close to being as being cognitively defunct as Biden is.

Also most people hate Mitt Romney as he is considered the butt and joke of the new Republican establishment that is forming. Utah was already solidly Republican prior to Romney being the candidate in 2012. I doubt Mormons, who have historically been reliable Republicans, will suddenly shift to vote for Biden.

You obviously don't live in Utah, yes Mormons employ a conservative vote but in the past the never truelly support anything beyond that.

Plus mormons love Mitt Romney.

And oh I know the media is hostile I've been alive long enough to know that. Still doesn't change the fact he's a senile old man who only ran for presidency for an ego boost.


Also I love that you ignored the fact that I called both old morons out.

 

[Iwasamwillbe]

Still doesn't change the fact he's a senile old man who only ran for presidency for an ego boost.

Did you even read @It's HK-47's post that responded to this exact same contention of yours, or is this some "he's senile because he's old and I don't like him" inanity?

And if Trump's egotism brought us more jobs and the dismantling of the Marxist deconstructionism that has taken hold of the government as of late, then more power to him.

Also I love that you ignored the fact that I called both old morons out.

If you want to call both candidates out, at least make your call-outs be based on reality.

 

[GuntPunt]

You obviously don't live in Utah, yes Mormons employ a conservative vote but in the past the never truelly support anything beyond that.

Plus mormons love Mitt Romney.

And oh I know the media is hostile I've been alive long enough to know that. Still doesn't change the fact he's a senile old man who only ran for presidency for an ego boost.


Also I love that you ignored the fact that I called both old morons out.

lol calm down

Have we found the fabled Utah Evan McMuffin voter?

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

Rasmussen polls aren't making any sense lately. +4 Biden nationally, and +4 Biden in Ohio? +8 Biden in Wisconsin? I know the Great Lakes areas are tough to poll, but ugh, give Nate Saranwrap ammo to rate your polls a D-.

Ohio polls are mostly showing Biden ahead, too. They're sparse, but that's another head scratcher since Trump won it by 8 and it's turning more red. You could see this and determine polls are bunk, but if they're right and a huge shift is occurring in the midwest for some reason...

 

[Salubrious]

It's not even white guilt. All I learned about South Africa when I was in school was that Mandela was basically their MLK. It was an extremely brief footnote. I had no idea what apartheid actually was or what Mandela actually did until I did my own research as an adult. I'm sure it's worse now, but 20-30 years ago that's all that was taught and it was still black washing.

Most people's only exposure to learning anything about apartheid is Lethal Weapon 2.

 

[Shield Breaker]

Rasmussen polls aren't making any sense lately. +4 Biden nationally, and +4 Biden in Ohio? +8 Biden in Wisconsin? I know the Great Lakes areas are tough to poll, but ugh, give Nate Saranwrap ammo to rate your polls a D-.

Ohio polls are mostly showing Biden ahead, too. They're sparse, but that's another head scratcher since Trump won it by 8 and it's turning more red. You could see this and determine polls are bunk, but if they're right and a huge shift is occurring in the midwest for some reason...

Look at aggregates, not individual polls.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

Look at aggregates, not individual polls.

This is just as retarded as saying to look at Nate Tinfoil for data. Look at transparent polls with communicative pollsters who are willing to discuss how they got their results. Look at crosstabs. Pollsters which oversample democrats (4% of the national electorate) do so at a rate of 7.62% on average. Proof. And this is directly about the polls used by RCP and Nate Saran Wrap.

Saying "hurr durr use aggregates" is retarded. Use polls that are trustworthy and have excellent records.

 

[The Pink Panther]

I see no real difference in Trump between now and ten years ago.

One could argue that the only difference is that in some ways, he's much more shouty.

 

[heyitsmike]

Better than either polls or aggregates is the good ol' Mk 1 Mod 0 Eyeball.

It's telling me that Biden's brain is mush and the Dems are burning down their own cities and harassing suburban bystanders.