2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Sometimes I think the meme magic is real.

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We know that democrats are far, far more likely to request ballots by mail than republicans. There have been a number of analyses (from FL for instance) comparing the VBM numbers, showing that dems far outweigh republicans in voting by mail. Maybe this is to be expected, especially after Trump and the dems got into it over the past month. But look at those numbers. 24% of the ballots were rejected. This leaves us with two possibilities:

1) Trump goaded the dems on purpose to make VBM their hill-to-die-on when he knew that it would actually end up disenfranchising dem voters disproportionately

2) Trump goaded the dems on accident to fall into line behind VBM and the system is just happening to work in his favour

I take the second possibility myself, which just makes me think that there's something out there helping Trump succeed. This type of thing seems to happen all the time with Trump. Regardless, I think the VBM, even with the cheating the dems will attempt, will end up significantly helping Trump.
 
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darkwingosonichugorl said:
I think LBJ-Goldwater may be the closest scenario to Trump. You were labeled a monster if you didn't support JFK's successor and Goldwater was the dangerous guy who'd blow everything up. Even though LBJ still won easily, Goldwater ended up doing at least 5% better than any polls suggested.
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That last sentence of yours is just the screwiness of the EC, I believe.

Context around the Election of '64:
Electoral Votes:
LBJ: 486
Goldwater: 52

Popular Vote:
LBJ: 61.1%
Goldwater: 38.5% Poor dude got murked.

Context on "vote LBJ or Goldwater will blow ya up":

A bit of autistic pondering here on the bold part, but I'm wondering about a hypothetical Trump version of this. How would it go? A slow zoom-in on a child, but it gets faster and you hear the footsteps of running, and the kid almost screams, but gets cut off with the raising of the CCP's flag. And as the flag rises to top, you get the "China would prefer Joe Biden" quote, along with other Joe + China quotes. The pièce de résistance is a distorted US anthem.
 
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The last primary results I looked at was New York in June, and I noticed Biden was having problems consolidating support. Since then Delaware, New Jersey, Louisiana and Connecticut have had primaries... and Biden is still having the same problem.

Delaware - July 7
89.4% Biden 07.5% Sanders

New Jersey - July 7
84.9% Biden 14.7% Sanders

Louisiana - July 11
79.5% Biden 07.4% Sanders

Connecticut - August 11
84.9% Biden 11.5% Sanders

Trump is routinely clearing 95% in the primaries. Biden is having issues getting to 90% even in his home state. And this is well after Bernie dropped out.

If you're still voting for Bernie in the primary in August are you really going to turn out to vote for Biden in November?
 
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CrippleThreat said:
A bit of autistic pondering here on the bold part, but I'm wondering about a hypothetical Trump version of this. How would it go? A slow zoom-in on a child, but it gets faster and you hear the footsteps of running, and the kid almost screams, but gets cut off with the raising of the CCP's flag. And as the flag rises to top, you get the "China would prefer Joe Biden" quote, along with other Joe + China quotes. The pièce de résistance is a distorted US anthem.
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"It's clearly just a peaceful protest" quote or two, preferably from Biden or Pelosi.
Some kid playing in a park with some toys, but you hear walking and screaming as a crowd of black bloc Antifa stomp their way in.
They scream some commie bullshit as the kid runs away screaming for mommy, maybe some black bloc kids chase the kid, who drops their toys
"Check your white privlege!!! Death to America! PUT YOUR HAND UP!!!! SAY IT! SAY BLACK LIVES MATTER MOTHERFUCKER!"
Sounds of the kid being struck, screaming from off camera, camera falls over
The playground gets set fire in the out of focus background, tables are flipped, trash cans are tossed, culminating in the kid's toys melting in the fire as black bloc antifa stomp past chanting their commie bullshit

"When we win, do not forget that these people want you broke, dead, your kids (sound of broken glass) and brainwashed, and they think it's funny."

Fade to black with Kamala Harris's hyena laughter playing.



Or just take footage of that black guy breaking down after his brand new business had just been looted by BLM and Antifa, with some nigger literally coming back for the safe during the fucking interview.

Mother and kid driving through the ruined streets post-riot.
"Mommy, why did daddy's new business have to shut down?"
"Because only certain Black Lives Matter, honey."
 
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gd7 said:
I don't have a dog in this fight, but I see this argument thrown around a lot and I have to ask, didn't Trump have a hand in hundreds of businesses? Doesn't it stand to reason that it's normal to see a few (out of hundreds) not be a success?
Happy to be corrected.
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While he is a pretty damn good expert at land grabbing anything else he started has turned to ash. He tried to do Casinos not once but four times and each of those times ended in bankruptcy, one of em which nearly costed him his entire fortune.

Also hes still facing the whole Trump University Lawsuit as we speak.
 
CrippleThreat said:
A bit of autistic pondering here on the bold part, but I'm wondering about a hypothetical Trump version of this. How would it go? A slow zoom-in on a child, but it gets faster and you hear the footsteps of running, and the kid almost screams, but gets cut off with the raising of the CCP's flag. And as the flag rises to top, you get the "China would prefer Joe Biden" quote, along with other Joe + China quotes. The pièce de résistance is a distorted US anthem.
Click to expand...

Eh, it'd be better to appeal to white suburban woman.

Have a bechdel test passing conversation between a youngish woman on her phone at home with a friend discussing writing her anthropology thesis/preparing for an equity meeting/marking up papers. Suddenly you hear a din and shadows filter through the windows. She looks out. It's a mob of antifa with shields and setting fires. The woman turns off her lights and whispers to her friend on the phone that she's scared, the protests usually stayed in the city. Her friend asks if she has a gun at home, and she says no because the state banned them. The noise gets louder and closer. She hangs up and calls the police. More glass smashing, you can see a fire start to burn higher through the window. The crowd is now clearly chanting "Death to whites! Kill all cops! Destroy the suburbs!" She waits on the phone, only to get a message that the police is not available due to budget cuts and she is now 57th on the line. As corny elevator music plays, you hear a scream and her window breaks. Fire crackles in the background as the shot goes dark. Fin.
 
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Tathagata said:
Sometimes I think the meme magic is real.

View attachment 1581376

We know that democrats are far, far more likely to request ballots by mail than republicans. There have been a number of analyses (from FL for instance) comparing the VBM numbers, showing that dems far outweigh republicans in voting by mail. Maybe this is to be expected, especially after Trump and the dems got into it over the past month. But look at those numbers. 24% of the ballots were rejected. This leaves us with two possibilities:

1) Trump goaded the dems on purpose to make VBM their hill-to-die-on when he knew that it would actually end up disenfranchising dem voters disproportionately

2) Trump goaded the dems on accident to fall into line behind VBM and the system is just happening to work in his favour

I take the second possibility myself, which just makes me think that there's something out there helping Trump succeed. This type of thing seems to happen all the time with Trump. Regardless, I think the VBM, even with the cheating the dems will attempt, will end up significantly helping Trump.
Click to expand...

The risk of this strategy is that Democrats also have many constituencies who have very low turnout, like youth and some minority groups. VBM lowers the barrier to voting, and by enabling it nationwide for the general election, it risks drawing in votes from people too lazy or unwilling to drive to the polls on Election Day.

Even if a good chunk of those votes get tossed out, the increase in participation could skew things in the Democrats' favor. And that's before we start taking fraud into account.
 
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Look I can't speak for anyone else but myself.

All I'll say is that I did not vote for Trump in 2016. I'm an Independent, and I hated Hillary, but I could never take Trump seriously and I assumed any votes for him were more a vote against Hillary than anything else.

But the left has gotten so bad since 2016 that I feel like in 2020, I have no choice but to vote for Trump. And to be honest, Trump has actually kind of won me over little by little anyway.
 
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HTTP Error 404 said:
View attachment 1581581

View attachment 1581588
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That's pretty big, if true. But the overall poll is only 500 people, and the subset of Spanish-speaking respondants was only 33%, so only 167 polled there. I don't trust that subset sample because it'll have larger margins of error.

GuntPunt said:
It means the Cuban, Venezuelan, and Nicaraguan vote is coming out. Some Puerto Rican and working class Mexican too. Florida Latinos aren't predominently Mexican. If they were, Florida would be hard blue by now.
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Puff said:
Cubans. Not Mexicans. This whole "categorize people by skin color" thing doesn't work. Gotta look into where they actually came from.
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This is actually part of the breakdown in the source poll for some questions. Here's Trump's favorability:
Screenshot 2020-09-09 at 12.11.37 AM.png

Breakdown for the actual vote:
Screenshot 2020-09-09 at 12.16.36 AM.png

This one is wild. Donald Trump is winning among actual immigrants.
Screenshot 2020-09-09 at 12.14.47 AM.png

That's not trivial. Only 48% of respondents were US born.
Screenshot 2020-09-09 at 12.20.33 AM.png
 
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RumblyTumbly said:
Look I can't speak for anyone else but myself.

All I'll say is that I did not vote for Trump in 2016. I'm an Independent, and I hated Hillary, but I could never take Trump seriously and I assumed any votes for her were more a vote against Hillary than anything else.

But the left has gotten so bad since 2016 that I feel like in 2020, I have no choice but to vote for Trump. And to be honest, Trump has actually kind of won me over little by little anyway.
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That's where I am. Although I registered as an Independent in 2016 (and didn't vote), I've always considered myself mostly Democrat.

I woke up one morning this year and realized that I was a Republican now because the Democrats went fucking insane.

Even last year, I started to realize how terrible people Democrats were. I've had a lot of stupid debates with Republicans, and we left mutually thinking that the other was the dumbest person on Earth, but we respected each other's right to be dumb. I've had arguments with Democrats where I was 95% on their side, and they said I was a terrible person who should lose his job and friends because I was clearly a monster/bigot.
 
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Kane Lives said:
This sounds like real :optimistic: to me.
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Believe it or not, Cernovich wasn't talking out of his ass. / archive.

Trump is tied with Biden in this poll. A wider universe of polls, at least if we go by this article, actually has Trump leading by 4 percent. This is from NBC although to be fair, there are more Republicans than Democrats in this sample.

It's worth noting the white, independent, and senior vote is down from 2016 (archive) but look at the Hispanic support. Clinton beat Trump handily when it came to Hispanic support yet we have Trump beating Biden in Hispanic support in a state where he needs their vote to win. Notably among Cubans, Trump is said to have a sizable lead and given that they are the most populous Hispanic ethnicity in Florida, this is a big deal. Cubans have as of 2008 become swing voters and voted for Obama in the 2008 and 2012 election yet they leaned red in 2016 when they voted Trump in. The fact Cubans are said to have a sizable lead means that if this data pans out, Cubans are once again a reliable voting block for Republicans, at least if the GOP knows what the fuck they're doing after Trump leaves. I said that Maximo Alvarez helped Trump's chances in Florida but I didn't think it would do so to this extent.

More importantly, Biden is only slightly ahead of the non-Cuban Hispanic voters. Once again, we don't have numbers but I can't imagine he would have more than a five point lead among them. That means Trump made an around 20% gain among non-Cuban Hispanics in that state. That's incredible for a Republican candidate, especially when said incumbent once called Mexicans rapists. It also has ramifications for other states highly populated by Hispanics.

Trump has bragged about receiving over 40% of the Hispanic vote (archive) this election. I'm still not sure if he will receive that much, but great polling numbers among them in Florida definitely puts the possibility of a double digit increase on a national level on the table. If that happens, Texas is safe, Arizona is safe, Trump has a good shot of winning Nevada even with mail-in ballot fraud, and Colorado is in play. New Mexico will stay blue but it will be close and Republicans would have an opportunity to take the state back in 2024 if they can continue to build on goodwill among Hispanics.

On the flipside, bad polling numbers among whites and independents in Florida bodes poorly for him in the Midwest and Pennsylvania. I still think he'll take Iowa and Ohio, but it makes Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania harder to get seeing as they rely on the white vote a lot more than Florida does. The NBC poll shows a six percent drop in white support and a double digit drop in independent support and he needs both to win the upper Midwest states. Of course the circumstances could be different there - Minnesota and Wisconsin did have cities badly battered by riots that could turn things in Trump's favor - but I've been hesitant to say Trump will keep Pennsylvania and Michigan and this only affirms it.

Regardless, it's been a bunch of good news for Trump in Florida. I'm legit going to file Florida under "Likely R", especially given how much Trump has closed the gap after the RNC Convention in that state and the report of less than a 100 Biden campaign staffers in the state compared to 250 under Obama in 2012. It's a must-win state for Trump, but one I feel good about now.
 
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Salubrious said:
That's where I am. Although I registered as an Independent in 2016 (and didn't vote), I've always considered myself mostly Democrat.

I woke up one morning this year and realized that I was a Republican now because the Democrats went fucking insane.

Even last year, I started to realize how terrible people Democrats were. I've had a lot of stupid debates with Republicans, and we left mutually thinking that the other was the dumbest person on Earth, but we respected each other's right to be dumb. I've had arguments with Democrats where I was 95% on their side, and they said I was a terrible person who should lose his job and friends because I was clearly a monster/bigot.
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Were these people declaring you a monster/bigot not white? I can't imagine white democrats doing that if I'm not mistaken on your level of melanin. Their brains are just wired in such a retarded way that it'd be racist to even consider calling any nonwhite a monster/bigot. (asians are honorary in this case)
Feel free to ignore.
 
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Aidan said:
Were these people declaring you a monster/bigot not white? I can't imagine white democrats doing that if I'm not mistaken on your level of melanin. Their brains are just wired in such a retarded way that it'd be racist to even consider calling any nonwhite a monster/bigot. (asians are honorary in this case)
Feel free to ignore.
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It's usually my white liberal friends telling me how disrespectful it is that my biracial ass doesn't support BLM and that I'm dehumanizing criminals because I said that Blake should have been shot for going for a weapon.
 
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