2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[GuntPunt]

Good show by People's Pundit (with Barnes Law). Most notable because they spend 30+ minutes shitting on Nate Aluminum, outright calling him a fraud, and going into the history of 538's utter failure at making sports odds. Sounds like it was kicked off by Nate calling out Baris.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yNGaBXAqlXJj

"If anyone wants to sue me for calling them a fraud, I'll prove it in court!"

They go into the details of what it takes to do proper election forecasting, not just modeling or poll reading. Shitting on Nate 538 starts around 15 minutes in, but the whole thing is worth listening to.

Always in for shitting on Nate Hydrogen, but really interested me is the state by state analysis they did and the trends they talked about.

Basically, if its too long to watch, Florida, N. Carolina, Iowa and Ohio aren't in play anymore. Biden is not even bothering to campaign there, so he is trying to reclaim the Rust Belt (obviously). But the states of Pennsylvania and Minnesota are trending extremely pro-Trump in voter registrations and primary turnout. The strongest to weakest states that can go back to Biden are Pennsylvania being the least likely, then Wisconsin, then Michigan. Minnesota is extremely in play not only because of the riots, but because both the Iron Range is endorsing Trump and voting trends like the only House seats to flip from Dem to Rep were 2 in Minn. Also, if the Hispanic polling is right, Arizona isn't in play and Nevada IS. Really interesting stuff. Would recommend.

 

[XYZpdq]

caught part of a radio interview with a Trump campaign staffer asked about New York
he was quick to list a lot of other questionable states that they have their eyes on more reasonablly, but basically for New York the tldr regarding current chatter was "yeah we don't expect it, but that sure is some shit ain't it"

 

[Salubrious]

I like that Nate said that Trump was the Nickelback of GOP candidates.

Look, you can say Nickelback is trash. But they've been wildly successful in their careers. They've been together for 25 years and are still raking in millions.

I personally think they are closer to average than trash, but I'm skewed because I think Jason Derulo is the worst artist in history. Hell, at least Chad Kroeger's singing voice can be hilarious at times.


Nate got lucky ONCE and has been the Jason Derulo of mainstream prognosticators ever since.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

Highly recommend that anyone interested in real election forecasters keep up with Baris and Barnes. Baris runs a show every weekday called "Inside the Numbers" on Youtube and Periscope where he discusses polling, including the incoming results of his own firm's polling data (Big Data Poll) and economic indicators. Baris is actually based af, he's a military vet and father somewhere in Florida. He and Barnes also run a more specific show on the state of the race called "What are the Odds" every week, usually on Mondays. Watching Baris' shows for a week will tell you more about the true state of the election than reading every single article Nate Scumbag has published on 538 since 2012 would.

 

[babadook]

I like that Nate said that Trump was the Nickelback of GOP candidates.

Look, you can say Nickelback is trash. But they've been wildly successful in their careers. They've been together for 25 years and are still raking in millions.

I personally think they are closer to average than trash, but I'm skewed because I think Jason Derulo is the worst artist in history. Hell, at least Chad Kroeger's singing voice can be hilarious at times.


Nate got lucky ONCE and has been the Jason Derulo of mainstream prognosticators ever since.

I don't get the memetic hate Nickelback get, they're a radio friendly commercial act just like many others, generically saying "they're song are all alike" is something you could apply to a lot of other musicians

 

[Salubrious]

I don't get the memetic hate Nickelback get, they're a radio friendly commercial act just like many others, generically saying "they're song are all alike" is something you could apply to a lot of other musicians

The weird thing to me is that Beyonce is probably a "better artist" than Nickelback, but I hate all of her songs outside of her Destiny's Child period. Nickelback has some genuinely enjoyable songs in a fauxinspirational type of way.

Hell, my favorite Nickelback song is "How You Remind Me of Someday" because it strangely works somehow.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

Highly recommend that anyone interested in real election forecasters keep up with Baris and Barnes. Baris runs a show every weekday called "Inside the Numbers" on Youtube and Periscope where he discusses polling, including the incoming results of his own firm's polling data (Big Data Poll) and economic indicators. Baris is actually based af, he's a military vet and father somewhere in Florida. He and Barnes also run a more specific show on the state of the race called "What are the Odds" every week, usually on Mondays. Watching Baris' shows for a week will tell you more about the true state of the election than reading every single article Nate Scumbag has published on 538 since 2012 would.

It was worth listening to just for the relentless Nate Tin bashing which he fully deserves. Although, I wish Barnes especially would tone down the partisan rhetoric. Trump isn't doing better than we think in damn near everything. They're better than being Republican cheerleaders like a lot of trash Youtube political channels.

 

[XYZpdq]

Natty Metalguy is fat and I would not have sex with him.

 

[Kane Lives]

I know this is the presidential election thread, but something I don't see talked about often is how the downballot races are shaping up. Granted, that's also due to the sheer number of positions open in the entire United States. Nevertheless, we all know time and again that state and Congress seats matter just as much as to whether or not Drumpf stays as president. Possibly even more so, tbh.

What are the Amerikiwis thoughts on their respective Congress, state and local elections? Has the Biden effect leaked into the other reps with D on their names as well?

 

[Harvey Danger]

I know this is the presidential election thread, but something I don't see talked about often is how the downballot races are shaping up. Granted, that's also due to the sheer number of positions open in the entire United States. Nevertheless, we all know time and again that state and Congress seats matter just as much as to whether or not Drumpf stays as president. Possibly even more so, tbh.

What are the Amerikiwis thoughts on their respective Congress, state and local elections? Has the Biden effect leaked into the other reps with D on their names as well?

It's something I give a thought to from time to time. But the polling this year is so atrocious, and the year itself is so batshit insane, I have very little feel for what's going on downticket. Honestly I haven't had the time to investigate it.

In theory, this should be a Trump Wave Or Bust election: Republicans make gains if Trump wins, lose ground if he loses. But we've seen over the last 2 years that a Trump endorsement doesn't necessarily work out for GOP candidates. He makes a big deal when his primary endorsements pull through, but a lot of those are in noncompetitive races. Think Laura Loomer or Kimberly Klacik.

My general sense is that there's a fracture within the Republican Party, the same way there's one in the Democrats. Dems are split between libs and progressives, each trying to kick out the other. For the GOP it's mainstream conservative vs grassroots fringe, basically 2016's National Review vs Trump all over again. It's playing out in weird ways and very localized races; some districts are on board with Trump, others want regular old GOP conservatism.

I don't know how this interacts with Presidential down-ballot coattails. I don't know if the pro-Trump-but-not-GOP voter dynamic messes things up for pro-Trump GOP candidates. I don't know if the obvious Democratic campaign to commit mail ballot fraud this year strangles the local movements, since local races are way easier to steal than state-wide ones.

2020 is a hell of a year to try and project anything.

 

[MrJokerRager]

It's something I give a thought to from time to time. But the polling this year is so atrocious, and the year itself is so batshit insane, I have very little feel for what's going on downticket. Honestly I haven't had the time to investigate it.

In theory, this should be a Trump Wave Or Bust election: Republicans make gains if Trump wins, lose ground if he loses. But we've seen over the last 2 years that a Trump endorsement doesn't necessarily work out for GOP candidates. He makes a big deal when his primary endorsements pull through, but a lot of those are in noncompetitive races. Think Laura Loomer or Kimberly Klacik.

My general sense is that there's a fracture within the Republican Party, the same way there's one in the Democrats. Dems are split between libs and progressives, each trying to kick out the other. For the GOP it's mainstream conservative vs grassroots fringe, basically 2016's National Review vs Trump all over again. It's playing out in weird ways and very localized races; some districts are on board with Trump, others want regular old GOP conservatism.

I don't know how this interacts with Presidential down-ballot coattails. I don't know if the pro-Trump-but-not-GOP voter dynamic messes things up for pro-Trump GOP candidates. I don't know if the obvious Democratic campaign to commit mail ballot fraud this year strangles the local movements, since local races are way easier to steal than state-wide ones.

2020 is a hell of a year to try and project anything.

National Review has lose the war since Trump has a super unified GOP support behind him that would make any other past GOP nominees or incumbents jealous. I know its not scientific but looking at online dislikes for Trump's 2016 and 2020 RNC speeches. He has actually gained a giant amount of ground. He is what Obama was in 2008 for the democrats. Except Obama lost his shine 4 years lator whereas Trump has grown. We seeing neocons either fucking off to the democrats or accept the new order as hopefully more Republicans like Tucker dominate the party compared to cucks like Lindsay Graham. But it all depends on a Trump win or loss. But the GOP must have realized by now that the loss for the party means a giant skullfucking waiting for them by the new breed of democrats not in the mood for negotiations.

 

[Harvey Danger]

National Review has lose the war since Trump has a super unified GOP support behind him that would make any other past GOP nominees or incumbents jealous. I know its not scientific but looking at online dislikes for Trump's 2016 and 2020 RNC speeches. He has actually gained a giant amount of ground. He is what Obama was in 2008 for the democrats. Except Obama lost his shine 4 years lator whereas Trump has grown. We seeing neocons either fucking off to the democrats or accept the new order as hopefully more Republicans like Tucker dominate the party compared to cucks like Lindsay Graham. But it all depends on a Trump win or loss. But the GOP must have realized by now that the loss for the party means a giant skullfucking waiting for them by the new breed of democrats not in the mood for negotiations.

I'd compare it more to Bush in 2004. Bush in 2000 ran as the "no more nation building" guy and lost the popular vote by 500k. Bush in 2004 had morphed into a post-9/11 war President, losing the libertarian and anti-war votes but consolidating into a 3% popular win. His opponent was a lackluster old Democrat whose main selling point was "I'm kind of better at doing Bush things but I'm not Bush".

I wouldn't count out the establishment GOP yet. Trump's populist base has the enthusiasm, but plenty of Republicans still want "proper" conservatism, without the Trumpism. The NR crew lost the national argument against Trump, completely; but when we're talking about individual Congressional seats, they have a lot of sway.

In fact I'd argue they pay attention to the downticket races more than Trump does, or to put it another way, they do it so he doesn't have to. Kind of like how Mitch McConnell is having a hell of a Senate run, without really bringing in Trump on anything other than judges.

I don't like what that means for 2024, because I think populism is the way forward for the GOP and I don't see any post-Trump populists taking off like he did. But for 2020, the two sides are co-existing. And I think Trump picked up a few NeverTrumpers from his own side over the last 4 years.

 

[George Floyd Sneed]

The GOP is already furiously masturbating to Nimrata Haley being the 2024 nominee so they can own da libs and get back to losing with principles. The downballot races are extremely important because if it’s just neocons and cuckservatives like before, then America has essentially just kicked the can down the road eight years instead of actually turning things around.

 

[Big Nasty]

Im afraid that the Dems already have made their minds up: In the event of a Trump victory, they will just label it as a Biden victory that Trump refuses to acknowledge.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

Im afraid that the Dems already have made their minds up: In the event of a Trump victory, they will just label it as a Biden victory that Trump refuses to acknowledge.

The left has created their own reality to live in for a while now, nothing new here. They keep sending raiding parties out to try and demand we change our reality to suit theirs, though.

 

[RumblyTumbly]

The sad thing is, if Trump wins, we're getting more rioting and possibly a bigger temper tantrum than what we got in 2016.

What I'm hoping for is in 2024 when the election is in full swing and we still have term limits and Trump is clearly out the door. I wonder if they'll admit they had an overblown reaction to Trump becoming a dictator for life.

 

[RockPaper]

What I'm hoping for is in 2024 when the election is in full swing and we still have term limits and Trump is clearly out the door. I wonder if they'll admit they had an overblown reaction to Trump becoming a dictator for life.

Unforunately, they'll use the narrative the Left always uses, which is that Trump really wanted to be a dictator, and the only reason he failed was because we fought him at every turn and kept it from happening! We need to keep fighting to stop the next Trump, so send money.

 

[heyitsmike]

Im afraid that the Dems already have made their minds up: In the event of a Trump victory, they will just label it as a Biden victory that Trump refuses to acknowledge.

The Dems already conceded that on election night Trump will likely appear to have won in a landslide since they've gone all in on mail in ballots.

So good luck to them trying that. Possession is nine tenths of the law. And Trump will possess the lead at the end of the night. He ain't just gonna give it up that easy.

He will have hours and even days of being in the lead before races are official. In that time he will have control of the media cycle and narrative saying that he won. If a lot of states start flipping it's gonna look real suspicious as he's already labeled the Dems as mail in ballot cheats and by denying it they've acknowledged the accusation.

He's gonna get on the stage and make a victory speech like Buttigieg did in Iowa. Did he really win Iowa? I dunno, but the narrative is he did, and that's the important thing.

 

[RumblyTumbly]

I remember when Al Franken got elected and it was after a bunch of absentee ballots were discovered, and I thought then it was super fishy. Nothing ever came of it though...until Franken got #MeToo'd and sunk his own career, lol.

All I'll say is that if Trump wins huge on election night and then mail in ballots come in and swing it the other way (which some media outlets are already predicting), it is going to look super suspicious, and it'll cause a shit show.

I also remember the Dems pushing mail in ballots really hard 4 years ago too. Around where I live, people were in my face constantly telling me to mail in my ballot and I was like "Um...I'm going to go in person" and they said that it was "too big a risk" to do it the conventional way, whatever the hell that means.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

The sad thing is, if Trump wins, we're getting more rioting and possibly a bigger temper tantrum than what we got in 2016.

What I'm hoping for is in 2024 when the election is in full swing and we still have term limits and Trump is clearly out the door. I wonder if they'll admit they had an overblown reaction to Trump becoming a dictator for life.

Somehow I think that unlike Bush / Bush2, Trump actually went against the system so he'll never be allowed into the good boy's clubhouse to hang out with Ellen.

My sincere hope is that Trump finishes his term and starts raising a hundred assholes just like him. He could teach classes in shitposting.