2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[heyitsmike]

I can't find any events Joe or Kamala are leading, and even if I could, there is not that many to see. Honestly, it's feels as if his base is doing most of the leg and mouth-work.

Kamala went to South Florida today and got lunch at a Venezuelan restaurant.

The owners weren't there but when they found out they were like "Que se chinguen Biden y Kamala." Unbeknownst to them, the owners are Trump supporters.

But that's what happens to people who use the word latinx. They're all the same flavor of latino. Kamala should have known not to go into a venezolano restuarant.

 

[Harvey Danger]

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events/

In terms of Trump tracking, he's going to do a triple in Nevada this weekend (Reno and Minden tomorrow, and Las Vegas Sunday), and on the 18th, he's doing same day rallies in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Still no sign of him visiting Arizona besides his base campaigning there for him. Pence is in Wisconsin on Monday and Ohio Tuesday.

That's a really weird schedule. I can see a double in NV, but a triple? And why on earth wouldn't he do a full day in MN and WI each? Both states are well within his reach, and he wouldn't have to freak out about MI so much.

Bemidji is a northern MN city, where he's pulling lots of support. OK, fine. But you just got historic Iron Range endorsements; go spend half a day to the east and brag about the energy boom over there.

Mosinee is a central WI city. If he spent a full day in WI, he could do a 2nd rally either in the Milwaukee area to the southeast, or near the Twin Cities market to the west while still staying in WI. Or stay in supportive areas to the south.

I think the People's Pundits guys are right, his campaign is failing him up there. He's still trying to be economical and pinpoint states on a "path to victory" instead of spending a bit more time/money, and aiming for some historic flips. This feels like he's trying to get stuff done quickly then retreat to Mar-a-Lago for the weekend.

The lack of events past a certain point indicates the campaign is either calling audibles, and arranging them on 1-2 week's notice based on polling data, or they don't want the Biden campaign to copy them. There has to be some FL, PA, and AZ visits coming in the week immediately after that.

 

[Grandpa Simpson]

Been seeing these appear on my YT feed..
I feel like post-May has really been an awakening for Dems. While I still believe most high liberals for Gen Z are a minority, I am starting to feel a little shaky compared to the pre-riots.

Something tells me that Liberal content is just being pushed now while we are in the semi-home-stretch. Tik Tok is becoming like Twitter where it just a very Liberal hive mind and a very Conservative hive mind going at it every 20 seconds. Still worth looking at though.

Tik Tok is owned by ByteDance.

ByteDance Ltd. (Chinese: 字节跳动; pinyin: Zìjié Tiàodòng) is a Chinese multinational internet technology company headquartered in Beijing.[3][4] It was founded by Zhang Yiming in 2012. ByteDance is reportedly worth over US$100 billion as of May 2020.[5]

Since it's a Chinese multinational, then it's by law an extension of CCP. And we know what China thinks.

 

[Boobie Bomb]

Random Discord server I found online.

 

[ditto]

Its funny because the only loves hes into is self love.

I don't think he has to masterbate very often.

 

[heyitsmike]

That's a really weird schedule. I can see a double in NV, but a triple? And why on earth wouldn't he do a full day in MN and WI each? Both states are well within his reach, and he wouldn't have to freak out about MI so much.

Bemidji is a northern MN city, where he's pulling lots of support. OK, fine. But you just got historic Iron Range endorsements; go spend half a day to the east and brag about the energy boom over there.

Mosinee is a central WI city. If he spent a full day in WI, he could do a 2nd rally either in the Milwaukee area to the southeast, or near the Twin Cities market to the west while still staying in WI. Or stay in supportive areas to the south.

I think the People's Pundits guys are right, his campaign is failing him up there. He's still trying to be economical and pinpoint states on a "path to victory" instead of spending a bit more time/money, and aiming for some historic flips. This feels like he's trying to get stuff done quickly then retreat to Mar-a-Lago for the weekend.

The lack of events past a certain point indicates the campaign is either calling audibles, and arranging them on 1-2 week's notice based on polling data, or they don't want the Biden campaign to copy them. There has to be some FL, PA, and AZ visits coming in the week immediately after that.

Calm down. It's not an either/or proposition with Trump. He can go to Nevada and go to Pennsylvania and go to Florida. Unlike Biden, he has the energy and stamina to go after all of them.

Trump is not the only one hard at work either. Their ground game is tearing it up in Pennsylvania right now.

Since 2016, Republicans have netted nearly seven times as many registered voters here than Democrats.

‘I want to be in the Trump party’: GOP rides voter registration surge in key state

Since 2016, Republicans have netted nearly seven times as many registered voters in Pennsylvania as Democrats.

www.politico.com

 

[Harvey Danger]

Calm down. It's not an either/or proposition with Trump. He can go to Nevada and go to Pennsylvania and go to Florida. Unlike Biden, he has the energy and stamina to go after all of them.

Yeah, but these are easy changes to chase big things. He's doing 2 days in NV, but only 1/2 a day in MN? You're already up there, save yourself a trip coming back in the next month and do a full day. Saving that trip next month could free up a day in NH, or OH, or even NY to lay groundwork for the future.

I'm sure he'll hit FL/PA eventually, and his surrogates are doing decent coverage. But he already knows he needs to run up his vote totals in close states, because the Dems are going to try cheating like never before. And the surest way to combat that is with un-stealable margins in the states he got in 2016, plus a flipped state or two this year. He can't rely on 2016 margins in FL, PA, MI, OH, etc this time around.

 

[heyitsmike]

Yeah, but these are easy changes to chase big things. He's doing 2 days in NV, but only 1/2 a day in MN? You're already up there, save yourself a trip coming back in the next month and do a full day. Saving that trip next month could free up a day in NH, or OH, or even NY to lay groundwork for the future.

I'm sure he'll hit FL/PA eventually, and his surrogates are doing decent coverage. But he already knows he needs to run up his vote totals in close states, because the Dems are going to try cheating like never before. And the surest way to combat that is with un-stealable margins in the states he got in 2016, plus a flipped state or two this year. He can't rely on 2016 margins in FL, PA, MI, OH, etc this time around.

Until Trump loses an election I'm gonna err on the side of assuming he knows what he's doing.

 

[Someone Awful]

Yeah, but these are easy changes to chase big things. He's doing 2 days in NV, but only 1/2 a day in MN? You're already up there, save yourself a trip coming back in the next month and do a full day. Saving that trip next month could free up a day in NH, or OH, or even NY to lay groundwork for the future.

I'm sure he'll hit FL/PA eventually, and his surrogates are doing decent coverage. But he already knows he needs to run up his vote totals in close states, because the Dems are going to try cheating like never before. And the surest way to combat that is with un-stealable margins in the states he got in 2016, plus a flipped state or two this year. He can't rely on 2016 margins in FL, PA, MI, OH, etc this time around.

I'd say Ohio and Iowa would be very hard to steal since Trump won them by 8% and 9% respectively. If he can keep those margins, he should do fine. Other states, definitely in the margin of error. Trump will need to try to win by at least 5% in close states to make up for any deficit the Democrats will try when it comes to cheating. If it is true that Trump is doing worse among white voters than he did in 2016, he has a uphill battle ahead in the tossup states.

I don't understand what Trump is seeing in Nevada that could pull him the state. Given how fucked up their VBM standards are, he'd probably need to win by 10% to make up for any margin of error and I don't see him doing that. It doesn't help that is one of the only states where Republicans poll better than Democrats.

 

[Vaclav]

About Arizona's dubious ruling on mail-ins and absentees: this definitely isn't a good thing, but let's look at what really tells you whether a state is in-play or not. Has Biden announced any plans to host rallies there, like he has after no doubt panicking over Michigan, Penn, Minnesota, and Wisconsin? Because his campaign's actions tell me that, although Arizona's technically winnable, they really don't want to expend time on the state--and time is the ultimate currency during an election.

Democrats are interested in Arizona, but it looks like their major investments are on the Senate race. Mark Kelly has been relatively quiet about the presidential election, even though he clearly has public sway in the state. That tells me, at least, that the party doesn't want to tie Kelly down with Biden; ideally, they'd want Kelly to somehow bolster turnout for Biden, but they're compromising on simply splitting the ballots of Republicans willing to vote for Trump but not enthused for McSally (and convinced Kelly is totally a moderate).

Alternate interpretation: they know 100% the fix is in and don't need to campaign there.

 

[Someone Awful]

In other news, a poll in Oregon finally came out. Predictably, Biden is leading by 12%. / archive

As usual, this should taken with a heavy grain of salt. But noteworthy is the question of whenever or not the Portland metropolitan area could start to become a lighter shade of blue. Biden so far is at 59% with third-parties to consider and that there are still unsure voters.

I decided to do math on the Oregon counties within the Portland Metropolitan for how Trump, Clinton, and 3rd parties fared in 2016. For those wondering, they are Clackamas, Columbia, Washington, Yamhill, and of course Multnomah, where Portland resides. It turned out to be this,

Spoiler

Portland Metropolian Area (Oregon) in 2016 election

Clackamas

Trump: 88,392 (41.30%)
Clinton: 102,095 (47.70%)
Johnson: 11,053 (5.16%)
Stein: 4,001 (1.87%)
Others: 8,498 (3.97%)

Columbia

Trump: 13,217 (49.65%)
Clinton: 10,167 (38.20%)
Johnson: 1646 (6.18%)
Stein: 572 (2.15%)
Others: 1,016 (3.82%)

Multnomah

Trump: 67,954 (17.03%)
Clinton: 292,561 (73.30%)
Johnson: 12,862 (3.22%)
Stein: 12,969 (3.25%)
Others: 12,757 (3.20%)

Washington

Trump: 83,197 (30.90%)
Clinton: 153,251 (56.92%)
Johnson: 15,266 (5.67%)
Stein: 6,005 (2.23%)
Others: 11,513 (4.28%)

Yamhill

Trump: 23,250 (47.69%)
Clinton: 19,301 (39.59%)
Johnson: 3,074 (6.31%)
Stein: 1,016 (2.08%)
Others: 2,112 (4.33%)

Total

Trump: 276,010 (28.82%)
Clinton: 577,375 (60.28%)
Johnson: 43,901 (4.58%)
Stein: 24,563 (2.56%)
Others: 35,896 (3.75%)

Total 2016 vote: 957,745

Keep in mind that Oregons residents voted independent candidates at a higher rate than average last year and the same will likely hold true for this year. Still, if the riots have practically zero impact on a swing in a county Republicans need to flip the state, then I don't see it turning red. Oregon goes back to solid blue in my book.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

I think it's important for Trump to campaign in New York State, not for this election but future elections.

There's a vicious cycle where Republicans don't even attempt to win elections in "blue areas", therefore Democrats can do whatever they want because they know that nobody will vote them out in the next election. To be fair, this happens vice versa too.

I think it's important for Republicans to campaign in heavy blue areas and Democrats to campaign in heavy red areas so that at least the middle normies don't think that it's a monopoly and maybe there's a chance to vote out the Ted Wheelers of the world if they are this much of a fuck up.

I disagree, but not because you're wrong. Trump is fighting not only against the DNC, but compromised voting systems, the media, and the global elite. He needs to focus on what he knows he can win, and then actually win. Fuck the DNC strategy of "We can campaign in Texas and Georgia! North Carolina is a battleground state that leans blue! Florida is a tie!" He needs to win what he won last time, with some potential pick ups in Minnesota and New Hampshire. Winning the election and either of those will do just as much to shock the democrats as wasting a day in New York would. Who knows, there's even some signs of weakness in Maine. But I think winning NH, which isn't even on the democrats' radar, is a much more laudable target. Especially since Basham at the Democracy Institute polled the state and allege that Trump is leading by multiple points.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

The lack of attention Trump has given to Florida thus far suggests to me Rs think they have it in the bag. It's the one competitive state Trump realistically must win to maintain any chance (or he sweeps PA, MI and WI again). That and Ohio which most polls show Biden winning.

 

[GuntPunt]

The lack of attention Trump has given to Florida thus far suggests to me Rs think they have it in the bag. It's the one competitive state Trump realistically must win to maintain any chance (or he sweeps PA, MI and WI again). That and Ohio which most polls show Biden winning.

Trump is no stranger to Florida campaigning. He once spent 3 days straight hitting up 6 locations across the state in September 2016. If he needed to, he would go, instead of sending his kids to campaign for him there. I don't think he is worried due to a lot of reasons, like the 2018 elections in FL, actually having a ground game this time around, and whatever internals he is seeing. I mean: this is the reaction for Trump making a 15 minute speech in Jupiter on September 8th. Keep in mind, Jupiter is in Palm Beach County, a solid blue county since '92:

EDIT:
And here is the reaction to Kamala Harris in Miami (CONFIRMED DETAILS): She was disavowed by the Venezuelan restaurant for an uninvited political visit. She was protested in the short 5 minute stop she had there. A Venezuelan woman in the parking lot held a Trump sign and said " Biden/Harris represent communism."

 

[Harvey Danger]

The lack of attention Trump has given to Florida thus far suggests to me Rs think they have it in the bag. It's the one competitive state Trump realistically must win to maintain any chance (or he sweeps PA, MI and WI again). That and Ohio which most polls show Biden winning.

It's possible he's saving that for a closer-to-election event. If you think you get a bump from an event, and it fades over time, then FL is one of the places where you want to have the freshest bump going. Mail-in ballots go out in late September, and early voting starts in mid-October (I think).

I think OH and PA need similar shoring up (he already hit MI), and as I said above MN and NH need to be treated as potential flips. That's where the hard work should be going on now. I'm not overly worried about FL, as long as Miami-Dade and Broward gets watched like a hawk for shenanigans. Just generally nervous.

It's hard to really judge this election cycle without the "extra" campaign stops that candidates usually make, in safe places like CA or ID, which boost their image and sometimes turnout in nearby markets.

 

[CrippleThreat]

It's possible he's saving that for a closer-to-election event. If you think you get a bump from an event, and it fades over time, then FL is one of the places where you want to have the freshest bump going. Mail-in ballots go out in late September, and early voting starts in mid-October (I think).

I think OH and PA need similar shoring up (he already hit MI), and as I said above MN and NH need to be treated as potential flips. That's where the hard work should be going on now. I'm not overly worried about FL, as long as Miami-Dade and Broward gets watched like a hawk for shenanigans. Just generally nervous.

It's a better strat that Joe and Kamala booking it to anywhere in a battleground state, and just setting up without public notice (Hey Joe's Team, the guy has supporters. Let them see him.). That's how you attract hecklers, the people who curse your name, and those who want you dead.

 

[Lodoss Warrior]

I'm just not convinced that Mark Kelly is going to win. More Republicans voted in Maricopa County than Democrats in the primary a few months ago. Also, as I said before in my previous post on Martha McSally and the polls, the polls are already tightening. The new poll has Martha McSally only three percentage points behind Mark Kelly.

Also, there's a good amount of vectors you can tar Mark Kelly with, such as his dealings with China and the recent "racist" audio that was released of him.

Also, a good rule of thumb I'd like to use is that I consider the undecided voters to be already in the tank for Martha McSally, so if you add the undecideds to McSally in the polls, then McSally would be leading Kelly 52%-48%, and even that I think is underestimating the support Martha McSally will get in the election.

Edit: Also, we haven't gotten to the presidential debates and when the debate does happen (or doesn't), it will negatively affect the Democrats' chances at the ballot box, even extending to the downballot.

Sure, that's worthy of its own debate. I'm more outlining what I think the Democrat's strategy for potentially winning Arizona is.

It's certainly the case that they've been spending quite a bit of money and time on Kelly, while leaving Biden out to dry in what's, according to the polls, is a swing state. From their actions, then, my best guess is that they're relying on Kelly's higher popularity in the state to coattail Biden into victory. If not, they'll be fine with losing the state but turning its Senate seat blue.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Apparently this is how the MAGA hats are made.

 

[Kulee Baba]

Prediction: The Middle East and specifically Israel will not be brought up in any debates because Trump will brag that he's brought peace, something Obama could never do.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Prediction: The Middle East and specifically Israel will not be brought up in any debates because Trump will brag that he's brought peace, something Obama could never do.

Tucker is agressivelty pushing for this and Assuange/Snowden to be pardoned. This will win over some Anti-War Bernie Bros and non idpol liberals.

Also Biden wants to keep troops in the Middle East.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1304429909658472448

Some quotes from the article about this:

“These ‘forever wars’ have to end. I support drawing down the troops. But here’s the problem, we still have to worry about terrorism and [the Islamic State],” Biden told Stars and Stripes in a telephone interview.

Biden said conditions in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq are so complicated that he cannot promise full withdrawal of troops in the near future.

“I think we need special ops capacity to coordinate with our allies,” Biden said, adding there should be a maximum of “1,500 to 2,000” on the ground, a smaller force that what he would likely inherit from Trump.

However, Biden said the military should not meddle in the political dynamics of the countries where they operate. He said U.S. forces must be able to coordinate with allies to train and lead to “take out terrorist groups who are going to continue to emerge.”

Should he become commander in chief, Biden said he would press for an inclusive military able to maintain its dominant position as the world’s most powerful force.

He has vowed to better equip the National Guard, which often trains and deploys with outdated equipment and has said transgender people should be able to openly serve in the military.