2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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CrippleThreat said:
My guy here brings up a pretty good point. This election could already be over because of early ballots for Warren G. Biden and The Return to Normalcy. Who knows?
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I just personally don't buy the notion that (outside of outright cheating), these at-home or early ballots strongly favor Biden. I just don't see it.
 
Early voting existed before this, just not as much. The vast majority of them were never going to change their mind anyway.

I'm of the opinion that the debates will be very disappointing for Trump supporters. Unless Biden massively screws up or has a clear Alzheimer's moment, they'll effectively be a wash due to lowered expectations. And I wouldn't be surprised if one or two are cancelled.
 
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Someone Awful said:

Only archived links since since you have to pay for it.

The Green Party is pending on whenever or not it will make the ballot in Wisconsin. If so, this will help Trump as it siphons votes away from Biden.
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I don't want Green Party on the ballot. Because anyone who votes Green at the top will vote blue down ballot. Green Party voters are the kind that if they don't have someone they like at the top, they'll just stay home. And if they stay home, they can't vote blue down ballot.

CrippleThreat said:
Trump's triple in Nevada is still a "Huh?" to me
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This week Cook moved Florida from lean Dem to toss up and Nevada from likely Dem to lean Dem. So if what they call lean Dem in Florida is as generous to Democrats as lean Dem is in Nevada, I'm all about making a play for it. Trump is showing great strength with Latino voters so hell yeah let's leverage that.
 
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Salubrious said:
See, I just look at the 2016 map, and I don't see any states that Trump loses in 2020 that he won in 2016. The only maybes to me are Pennsylvania and Florida. Florida I think Trump has because the Hispanic vote right now HATES Democratic progressiveness as they see the same things Castro was calling for. Pennsylvania could swing, but I just don't see it personally.

I think if anything, Trump gains electoral votes in places like Minnesota.
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I err more in the side caution when it comes to the Upper Rust Belt States and Pennsylvania myself. Voter fraud will be a thing and Trump can't afford to be complacent. Especially Arizona and Michigan - the latter just had the possibility of duplicate mail-in ballots be a thing and Michigan has a governor who loathes Trump and won't hold voting fraud accountable if it means owning the Orange Man Bad. If Trump has a really good election, he could potentially expand his electoral votes by grabbing Minnesota and New Hampshire but all the stars have to align for him to have over 300 electoral votes.

That said, I agree that Minnesota has a solid shot of turning red. I keep hearing about New Hampshire and why Richard Baris (of People's Pundit) predicts a possible flip there, but I'd to see where he explained it. He talked about it in yesterday's live stream but it was not nearly enough for me to chew on.
CrippleThreat said:
Pennsylvania perhaps, but Trump and I believe Pence too have been stopping around there often during the summer. Joe can't win it because of his "home-field advantage" there.

Trump's triple in Nevada is still a "Huh?" to me, but at least Pence's worker rallies always keep the general populist side of things intact.
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I thought about Nevada earlier today and I was wracking my head on why he would go for a triple rally when it's a state he is likely to lose. I came up with three things, his war with voting fraud, proof of improved Hispanic turnout, and being his normal egotistical self.

Nevada is a state where there are seemingly no deadlines for mail-in ballots. You could still hypothetical cast your ballot a month after Election Day, which makes an already hard state to grab even more difficult. If Trump wins the state, he will also win Arizona and that would mean in his mind that no amount of election fraud can skew a fair election. Being a devil's advocate, the Democrats would have never pushed for their insane mail-in ballot rules if they didn't think it could potentially flip.

It's also a state with a high Hispanic population, with almost 30% of the population. Trump's campaign has bragged about reaching over 40% of the Hispanic vote before all is said and done. My speculation is that he wants that much because he knows that the number he needs to get to not only keep Arizona, but also turn Nevada red again. Nevada voted for Clinton 60-29 (archive). If he narrows the margin - electoral fraud factored into it - by double digits, improves his turn out among blacks by modest numbers (above 15%), and keep the white percentage to offset the loss in Asian vote that's coming, he can flip the state. Winning Nevada will prove that Hispanics are willing to vote Republican and could potentially highlight a shift towards them becoming a swing voter.

Finally there's Trump's inflated ego. He loves a challenge and he didn't back off of Nevada after news came out that hurt his chance there. Instead, he wants to once again redraw the map, only this time not only keep the Rust Belt but also make the Southwest and Northeast electable for Republicans again. It's why he went to New Hampshire last month, because he believes he can flip that state, and to be honest, he probably has a better shot there than Nevada and should visit there at least one more time. I think Trump has made Nevada personal to him.

If he makes another stop next month, that means he is going all in to win it. I really don't think this is a smart play though. Given what a Biden Harris administration implicates, it concerns me he's not giving Minnesota, a far easier flip, the same attention.
 
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darkwingosonichugorl said:
Early voting existed before this, just not as much. The vast majority of them were never going to change their mind anyway.

I'm of the opinion that the debates will be very disappointing for Trump supporters. Unless Biden massively screws up or has a clear Alzheimer's moment, they'll effectively be a wash due to lowered expectations. And I wouldn't be surprised if one or two are cancelled.
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This. I'm going to be early voting when it comes time in my state to do so. Nothing was going to sway me to vote for anyone but Trump since late 2019 and I didn't vote last election.

As for the debates, if Trump does a great job debating against Biden then even if he barely holds, he could get a small bump out of it. It's definitely not going to win the election for him though. I'd like to see a much better rallying schedule than what we saw this week so he can properly hit vulnerable states and a couple of plausible flips like New Hampshire and Minnesota. Regardless, I am watching the debates. Especially the Pence/Harris one since that might be a bigger game changer than people are speculating.
 
Salubrious said:
I think SOMETIMES it's overrated just where a person is campaigning barring a critical issue (like going to Kenosha or going to California for the wildfires).

Trump is campaigning and Biden is not. That's enough to sway some people.
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A campaign from the basement is still a campaign from home. The Warren Harding similarities are striking.

Someone Awful said:
...it concerns me he's not giving Minnesota, a far easier flip, the same attention.
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It's probably ego, and thoughts about the riots. Trump might be like us and think that Minnesota can't be that retarded to stay blue despite what happened this year.
 
CrippleThreat said:
It's probably ego, and thoughts about the riots. Trump might be like us and think that Minnesota can't be that retarded to stay blue despite what happened this year.
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It's not ego. It's common sense. Biden is underperforming in the Twin Cities and Trump is doing extremely well in areas like the Iron Range. Trump can win Minnesota if he wins all of the regions outside of the Twin Cities.

And that's just from the shit polls. Imagine what the actual feeling on the ground there must be.
 
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heyitsmike said:
I don't want Green Party on the ballot. Because anyone who votes Green at the top will vote blue down ballot. Green Party voters are the kind that if they don't have someone they like at the top, they'll just stay home. And if they stay home, they can't vote blue down ballot.
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Don't most voters vote straight ticket though, presumably including a lot of us here? It's a nice thought but I'd rather try to make up ground in midterm than to see a top-down push to reverse any and all changes Trump made during his administration if Harris gets in (as well as pass legislations and executive orders suppressing dissent). I'll take a temporary setback in the down ballot since it would allow the Dems to embarrass themselves out of seats anyway when they don't learn their lessons from a potential 2020 loss.
CrippleThreat said:
It's probably ego, and thoughts about the riots. Trump might be like us and think that Minnesota can't be that retarded to stay blue despite what happened this year.
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I don't blame him for thinking there's no way Minnesota could choose Biden this election after all that we've seen, but ego plays a larger role than he would like to admit. Minnesota is a richer target for him than Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and especially Nevada. He has an opportunity to not only flip the state but to make a reliably red one for the future and I'd hate to see him waste that chance.
 
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Reposting my rundown of absentee ballot deadlines because I noticed it had changed since two weeks ago, and also I made some mistakes myself. Selected swing states in bold.
I missed Georgia and North Dakota on the last list.
New Jersey's deadline is 7 days, not 48 hours.
California's deadline is 17 days, not 3.
Washington D.C.'s deadline is 10 days, not 7.

Source is this website, which might not be entirely accurate. The page says some states may have changed policies due to Corona, but I'm not going to look that up for all 51 of them. I may glance over it in another two weeks to see if anything else has changed.
(archive)

1 day:
Texas

3 days after election day:
Georgia (3 business days)
Kansas
North Carolina
[Pennsylvania, (by court order)]
Virginia (noon)

5 days after election day:
Washington

6 days after election day:
Iowa
Utah
West Virginia (for postmarked ballots, one day for those with no postmark)
[Wisconsin (by court order.)]

7 days after election day:
Minnesota
New Jersey (by 8:00 PM)
New York

10 days after election day:
Alaska
D.C.
Maryland (by 10:00 AM)
Ohio

14 days after election day:
Illinois
[Michigan. (This election only, by court order.)]

17 days after election day:
California

Apparently no limit:
Nevada
North Dakota

[ETA: Pennsylvania's Supreme Court has ordered the state to accept late ballots.]
[ETA: Michigan Court of Claims has ordered the state to accept late ballots.]
[ETA: A federal judge has ordered Wisconsin to accept late ballots.]
 
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Someone Awful said:
Don't most voters vote straight ticket though, presumably including a lot of us here?
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Yes, if there is someone in every race. If there is only a Green candidate for President who are they gonna vote for down ballot? They're probably not just gonna vote for President and leave the rest of the ballot blank. They're gonna vote Green for President and blue for the rest, because Dems are the closest to them. Libertarians will probably vote Libertarian for President and red for the rest, because the GOP are closest to them.
 
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I hate it when the left fearmongers. According to the idiots at DailyKos, progressive activists are prepared to take to the streets if Trump tries to steal the election!


Donald Trump has made it clear he will contest any result of the 2020 election that does not confirm him as the victor. He has already indicated he is prepared to incite violence among his supporters in order to secure that victory, and, as recent events in Kenosha and Portland have illustrated, his supporters will respond by armed threats to American citizens. Because mail-in ballots this year overwhelmingly favor Democrats, due to well-founded concerns about in-person voting in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a significant possibility that at the end of the evening on November 3, Trump, who has systematically tried to disparage mail-in voting and has urged his supporters to vote in person, despite the pandemic, will have eked out a lead among the in-person ballot tally. At that point, it is likely that Trump will declare victory, and claim that any count of the remaining mail-in ballots are tainted by “fraud.” His supporters will then attempt to mobilize and harass ongoing vote-counting efforts in select swing states, in particular, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, much as the “Brooks Brothers” brigades successfully harassed vote counters in Miami-Dade 20 years ago.

This is not the stuff of an active imagination, but instead a highly likely scenario.
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The Biden campaign has preemptively announced it is well-equipped to handle the bogus legal challenges that the Trump campaign intends to mount in the event Trump cannot fairly win the election. But the Biden campaign cannot overshadow the threatening aspect of armed neo-Nazis and “militia” terrorists banging the doors at local election boards and auditoriums where these recounts will take place. That can only be achieved by sheer numbers of people demanding that the ballots be counted.

In sum, it isn’t going to be pretty, and for the most part we Democrats will be on our own, faced with a party now quite literally in thrall to fascism. These groups and the many sure to join them in the next few weeks will have our back, but ultimately it may come down to every one of us taking a stand, in the streets.
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Last time I checked, THEY are the ones who have been throwing a never-ending tantrum over election results. They're the ones who have also been trying to pull a coup on Trump over made-up bullshit.
 
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