- Joined
- Apr 16, 2019
As a general rule of thumb, if people are holding boat parades in your honor, you're doing okay there.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.
- Thread starter Pickle Dick
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- May 25, 2013
also I can see them not wanting to go out on any limbs about rallies until shortly before to avoid any coof or other bullshits cancelling them
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- Dec 16, 2019
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- Dec 16, 2019
Cross-posting from the riots thread:
But even if there is a House with a Democratic majority that will re-elect Pelosi before Inauguration Day, wouldn't the electors have cast their vote in December by then? This whole scenario seems to depend on the electors waiting to cast their vote until it's too late, but from what I understand, either they vote by the 14th of December, or they don't, regardless of how many mail-in ballots are "uncounted" by then. And if no one reaches 270, then a contingent election elects the president, which cannot be Pelosi because they can only elect one of the top three candidates in terms of electoral vote number- which would most likely end up being Trump, due to the majority of states being represented by mostly Republicans in the House.
Sorry for being so anal about this (and for only linking wiki pages, though they seem accurate), but I really am trying to understand how this scenario would even play out. Most seem to say that it's incredibly unlikely (which I suppose means it shouldn't be discounted because clown world), but to me it seems practically impossible due to the electoral vote deadline being a month before inauguration. If anyone more informed can enlighten me on what I'm missing, ideally someone well-versed in how the US government functions, then please do.
I looked more into this, and I think I have a better understanding of this whole "President Pelosi" scenario, based on reading about the presidential line of succession and the terms and elections of the members of the House of Representatives. After thinking about it for a while, I still feel that there are some hurdles to overcome, though I admit I'm not too knowledgeable about the whole presidential election process. For one, this is assuming that the House will still hold a Democratic majority and re-elect Pelosi as the Speaker, but it's possible this will not be the case since the House can change seats and elect another Speaker before Inauguration Day, so even the presidential election is contested until Inauguration Day, it doesn't guarantee Pelosi would become president (unless the idea is that the House elections can be contested too? What would that mean for the House, since their terms expire before Inauguration Day? I can't find much on this compared to presidential elections, if someone can inform me on this that would be appreciated).
But even if there is a House with a Democratic majority that will re-elect Pelosi before Inauguration Day, wouldn't the electors have cast their vote in December by then? This whole scenario seems to depend on the electors waiting to cast their vote until it's too late, but from what I understand, either they vote by the 14th of December, or they don't, regardless of how many mail-in ballots are "uncounted" by then. And if no one reaches 270, then a contingent election elects the president, which cannot be Pelosi because they can only elect one of the top three candidates in terms of electoral vote number- which would most likely end up being Trump, due to the majority of states being represented by mostly Republicans in the House.
Sorry for being so anal about this (and for only linking wiki pages, though they seem accurate), but I really am trying to understand how this scenario would even play out. Most seem to say that it's incredibly unlikely (which I suppose means it shouldn't be discounted because clown world), but to me it seems practically impossible due to the electoral vote deadline being a month before inauguration. If anyone more informed can enlighten me on what I'm missing, ideally someone well-versed in how the US government functions, then please do.
MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2019
I like how the independents are fakes in disguise. Why not just register with the democrats at this stage. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are virtue signalling phones in the sense despite calling themselves independent, the voting records of both must be like 100% democrat.
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- Apr 21, 2013
MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 2, 2019
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- Jun 28, 2020
If I had to guess, he is referring to the Marist poll that his him with a plurality of Hispanic supporters over Biden in Florida, which will be critical to him winning the state. Cubans dragged him to that plurality given that they apparently have a sizable lead but Biden only have a slight lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in that poll too. He's assuming that means he may hit his 40% Hispanics target to win states like Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. I would not be shocked if he made the decision to hit Nevada based off speculation he is doing that much better with the Hispanics and want to turn them into potential swing votes like whites are. Of course he left off the fact the poll was in Florida which means either he does not remember the details or that not including that important bit helps his narrative that he's getting the nonwhite votes.
That said, it is possible he's visiting Nevada less to win the state and more to shore up the Hispanic votes to help keep Florida and Arizona. Only Florida, Arizona, and Nevada have a high enough Hispanic voting population and yet are somewhat competitive. He made a big deal about nonwhites (hate the word "minorities") making up 30% of a suburbs and emphasized that voting block. He knows the suburbs are crucial towards a potential victory so if he can grow lead, that can help him flip states like Florida. Personally, I hope tomorrow's visits are the last and he hits Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Michigan in that order going forward.
He wants to stop Demographic Is Destiny from becoming a reality and to do that, he has to get more nonwhite voters. 30% Hispanics and less than 10% blacks aren't cutting it any longer. Notice how he has been appealing more towards urban issues like riots and mail-in ballots when he knows the former is all Democratic cities fault and the latter favors the Dems. Even in white-dominated states like the Midwest and Pennsylvania when he talks about blue collar issues, he still bring urban issues to the table and jokes about the trashy state of Portland. Winning the election, in his eyes, kills the theory because he knows higher nonwhite turnouts are a major key to victory.
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One more thing I noticed,
Not a single incumbent who earned more popular votes during their re-election for a second term than the first has lost re-election. You would have to go back to the 19th century to find an example that breaks this. If Trump receives more vote in his re-election campaign than last time, that is a good sign. The thing is, we're also going to have higher turnout and the largest voting population in history. It will not be unreasonable if we hit 150 million votes. Sixty-five million for Trump likely won't save him but seventy million places him in a very good position for re-election even if he loses the popular vote once again.
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- Joined
- Mar 17, 2019
Powerful stuff. I'm shocked Trump isn't a dead cert to win in 2020
I wonder if this was sent to Trump supporters that he is presently ignoring in Portland?
I wonder if this was sent to Trump supporters that he is presently ignoring in Portland?
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2020
The way to defeat Demographics is Destiny is by a working class message and sealing up the border. Everyone's gotta work. Rename illegal immigration fight into "War on Gang Violence" and watch it print results.
In other news, IT KEEPS HAPPENING.
Link. No archive because it was acting exceptional.
Its only a matter of time before the Saudis bend the knee. The only reason this is happening at all is because of them easing up.
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2018
The NYPD is just a ridiculously massive, centralized police department to begin with so that just distorts it. The area that NY covers is solely NYPD whereas in other large metropolitan areas like Chicago you'd have a Sheriff's Department and smaller PDs for much of the smaller cities.
- Joined
- Oct 20, 2019
He has good in his heart and knows his purpose is true.
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2019
Trump said at his rally that Joe('s team's) latest ad was so dishonestly brutal, that he had to get brutal while he was speaking. Play their own game. The people who think those poor illegal aren't all that bad will soon want nothing to do with them.
Do I hear a third Nobel Peace Prize nomination?
ditto
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 17, 2019
In other news, IT KEEPS HAPPENING.
Link. No archive because it was acting exceptional.
Its only a matter of time before the Saudis bend the knee. The only reason this is happening at all is because of them easing up.
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2017
True, but you usually don't see them endorse the opposition candidate, at least not publicly.
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2019
Trump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocks
The RNC says it has knocked on the doors of 12 million potential voters in battleground states since mid-June — that’s around 1 million a week — while the Biden campaign has knock…
nypost.com
{The following is a summary by me.}
12 Million of which was door to door since mid-june. A million doors a week in battleground states.
2,000 hired staff have trained over 2 million volunteers, mainly focused on 22 battleground states.
This effort is three times larger than 2016.
Biden's team has not gone door to door, citing corona-virus concerns. {I believe it is due to the lack of enthusiastic volunteers}.
_
What are my thoughts?
While Trump's campaign has not been as aggressive with TV ads as Biden's, TV ads are quite expensive for the effect that you get, which is a slight boost to enthusiasm, and a boost in name recognition, but next to no voter conversions. Trump already has a very enthusiastic voting block, and his name recognition is 100 percent. Door to door has a very low percentage chance to get a convert, but nevertheless it still has the highest voter conversion rate of all traditional mass campaigning tools. The problem is that it takes time, money, and enthusiastic volunteers to be effective.
The only high percentage voter conversion system is friends and family, everything else pales in comparison. Barring that, door-to-door is your best option.
Anyway, that is my two cents.
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2019
There's an additional thing that interested me in that article, in that they claimed that the DNC has outspent Drumpf in ads and media campaigns.Trump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocksTrump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocks
The RNC says it has knocked on the doors of 12 million potential voters in battleground states since mid-June — that’s around 1 million a week — while the Biden campaign has knock…
{The following is a summary by me.}
12 Million of which was door to door since mid-june. A million doors a week in battleground states.
2,000 hired staff have trained over 2 million volunteers, mainly focused on 22 battleground states.
This effort is three times larger than 2016.
Biden's team has not gone door to door, citing corona-virus concerns. {I believe it is due to the lack of enthusiastic volunteers}.
_
What are my thoughts?
While Trump's campaign has not been as aggressive with TV ads as Biden's, TV ads are quite expensive for the effect that you get, which is a slight boost to enthusiasm, and a boost in name recognition, but next to no voter conversions. Trump already has a very enthusiastic voting block, and his name recognition is 100 percent. Door to door has a very low percentage chance to get a convert, but nevertheless it still has the highest voter conversion rate of all traditional mass campaigning tools. The problem is that it takes time, money, and enthusiastic volunteers to be effective.
The only high percentage voter conversion system is friends and family, everything else pales in comparison. Barring that, door-to-door is your best option.
Anyway, that is my two cents.
But aren't they supposed to be bankrupt? Who's bankrolling these eye-watering media blitz then?
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2015
Strangely enough there are still people pushing the idea that the DNC is going to drop Biden from the ticket in October and replace him with Hillary Clinton.
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2019
I don't know the specifics as to what they can do at this point, since he's now the nominee.
Either way if they do that it's over for them. The boost they'll get for replacing him won't counteract the huge hit they'll take from:
- People upset they removed him
- People upset that they confirmed the dementia
- People upset they picked Hillary again
- People upset they didn't pick Bernie / screwed over Bernie
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