All correct, but you are focusing on the qualifiers that exist while your worry papers over the missing elements.
The dissatisfacted side does not have military, manufacture, or supply capabilities. They are up against the premier military force of the world. There exists, within these areas of unrest, significant albeit quiet resistance to the party. These areas are co-dependent on the areas they'd move against, meaning that large scale political support will be minimized beyond base opportunism (And is why much has been pulled back). This goes on, while the core of unrest is there, there is a lack of what would be needed to really make a civil war occur.
This , x 1000 , when South Carolina sceeded in 1861, they had troops and cannon and used them to fire on Federal targets.... today, what does ANTIFA have? Nothing.
There's gonna be civil unrest for sure, but not war, the disaffected reeeing far-left has no military muscle or means of compulsion upon standing forces. The only power they have is the ability to riot, granted from officials like "Mayor" Wheeler who acquiesce time and time again before their demands. The first time they hit a concrete "NO" from State or Federal forces, they can do nothing but cry that at least they're martyrs now as they get cuffed, stuffed, or , in a rare handful of cases, bodybagged when they won't go quietly.
If California or Oregon were to say "we secede!" , well, literally WHO'S army is gonna make that stick? Or even try? Nothing will happen except some people will break windows in the street, and the Governor will look like a fool when the Feds roll in to restore order. That declaration won't be worth the 100% recyclable material Starbuck's Napkin it's written on.
The states don't have the backing of command-able militia units anymore, and those they technically DO are not going to die for empty liberal causes. And thanks to blue areas making it impossible to establish industry or even continuity of infrastructure, (to save nature) they can't logistically supply any loyal units they may have once outside help is cut off. (You think blue-collar truckers are gonna drive into active war zones?)
The modern State in the US no longer has independent war-making ability, PARTICUARLY not blue ones that can't keep needles and human shit from piling up in their own streets.
