The Dem's platform is rapidly diverging between progressives, who want to spend untold trillions reshaping every facet of our economy, and centrists, who want stability and a strong economy. The only thing holding them together right now is orange man bad and Trump won't be running in '24.
If you think that removes the Orange Man Bad factor, then you don't remember the 2008 election very well. The Democrats had devolved into BUSH BAD for a half decade at that point, and it was used (correctly) to paint McCain as just a continuation of Bush. Obama as a charismatic personality helped, but the thing that really got him that +7% win was centrists and even Republicans who didn't want more of Bush.
Even worse for them is that Trump has scooped up millions of disaffected voters who were left behind by shitty trade deals and/or Obama flipping them the bird with industry-breaking regulations, and he is now expanding the GOP's base further by broadly appealing to Blacks & Hispanics.
There's been some bashing on Barnes for the last few days over the SCOTUS pick. But I agree with one of his main election analysis points:
those voters are not GOP voters, they are Trump voters. They are coming out to vote for the man, not his recently adopted party, and certainly not for the New Right conservatism that's desperate to reassert itself.
Watch a few of his rallies. There aren't a lot of generic GOP merch/signs, they're all Trump signs or slogan signs (MAGA, Fill That Seat, etc). The identity signs aren't for the party or the ideology; they are for the man (Blacks for Trump, Workers for Trump, etc). The only other symbols flying are the American flag, and sometimes the Blue Lives Matter flag.
Listen to his speeches, hear what gets the biggest pop. He isn't pushing Republicans, he's bashing Democrats and the media. Republicans only get approval
if they agree with Trump personally. It's not an ideological purity test, it's a loyalty test.
I hope Pence has sense enough to know not to run in 2024. The GOP (and the Dems) have a hard time saying no to ex-VP’s who think it’s ’their turn’ and Pence would kill the current party unity. I’m looking out for Trump 2.0, there’s a few possibilities but prob too soon for most of them. I feel Candace Owens is one to watch, there are a lot of strong black Republican voices out there but it’s likely to be Don Jr in 24, he has the name, the money and (by then) a hotter FLOTUS than Melania. They could do worse.
In 2024, the Democrats get one last shot at Orange Man Bad as a rallying cry. They'll frame it as "he's so bad you need Generic Democrat to fix everything", and it will work. If a GOP candidate is anywhere remotely connected to Trump, the unity call automatically succeeds.
The GOP needs a Trump-like populist that can win the same coalition on his/her own personal recognizance. They completely failed to revamp the 2012-2016 ideological problems; it's been Trumpism or sectarianism for the last 4 years. They haven't overhauled their messaging to match Trump's formula, except to pick up diversity pandering to start highlighting more minorities.
Pence is out (and he knows it), Don Jr is completely out, and the Tea Party crowd (Rubio, Cruz) won't keep Trump's voters. I don't have a prediction for what happens in 2024, but I know what won't work, and that's trying to replicate Trump on short notice without the decades-long brand building.
