Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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The reason people feal guilty about going out in public even with the lockdowns over in some states is because they dont want to spread the virus even if there is a slim chance of an asymptomatic person spreading it to others. Its true that this was the same before covid-19 but Back then we did not have media propaganda calling you a murderer for socializing.
 
It was a panic reaction that gained too much inertia and became too useful. Most western response plans for dealing with a pandemic assumed it would be influenza, which has well-studied transmission properties, infection rates, and outcomes, and a certain level of base immunity within the population. Under those plans, the protocol would be to hospitalise severe cases, keep less severe cases quarantined, and attempt to achieve herd immunity, relying on the initial base immune response to speed things up, until a more permanent solution was found.

That's why the initial response was to put severe cases on ventilators. A flu can become severe enough to require a ventilator for a short while, because it clogs up your lungs and makes breathing difficult, but it doesn't damage them in the way that a severe coronavirus infection does.

The problem is, it didn't work. Coronavirus fucks your lungs hard if it gets a strong foothold there. It's effect on the immune system is different from influenza as well; it almost turns your immune system against you, though it isn't quite an autoimmune disease itself. The result is your lungs getting turned to mush and left vulnerable to subsequent pneumonic infections. Flu doesn't do that, except in cases so severe that you're dead no matter what happens.

And we don't have the same base immunity to corona that we have to flu. There are some relatives lurking around, but this one was novel enough to spread rapidly, unhindered, and largely unnoticed, for months.

But I said it was a panic reaction. By itself, this coronavirus isn't all that deadly. If you reduce the initial viral load, it basically doesn't do anything to you except reproduce enough to pass on to someone else. The panic was primed first by China's response to the virus, welding people into their homes, and then by the complete collapse of Milan's healthcare system, as the virus started showing up. Hospitals there were already under strain on the best of days, overcrowded, poorly funded, and with long waiting times for services. The influx of an unexpected number of very ill people, who all seemed to require ventilation, overwhelmed their resources and created a perfect storm of panic-inducing death porn. The sigh of a ward filled with people on ventilators created the impression that this was a highly contagious disease with a high death rate.

Everyone assumed it had just arrived that month, and was going to tear through the population like a wildfire. That modeller faggot in the UK, who had been demanding lockdowns every time someone sneezed for the last 20 years, got his model into the limelight and boosted the panic with wild predictions of millions of deaths worldwide, even if everyone was locked in their homes for months.

After that, it was pretty much inevitable that politicians worldwide would respond by locking everyone up. The virus wasn't reacting to their national response plans in the way it was supposed to, normal treatments just seemed to make things worse, and doomers started appearing with predictions of terrible fates for everyone that caught it. Locking everyone up was the only thing they could think of, and once one or two countries did it, everyone else followed along like panicked sheep. The ad-hoc strategy of "flattening the curve" to prevent overwhelming the health services, was used to justify the lockdown. That strategy itself was based on experience of Milan, which as I said, was already on the verge of collapse even before severe cases showed up. It only made sense if you assumed the majority of cases would require long-term hospitalisation and ventilation.

tl;dr the why is: politicians are human, saw a scary situation, panicked when their initial plans didn't work, and went full retard. Now it's become convenient to perpetuate the current state of affairs.
The US is now above 7 million confirmed cases. The actual number, given that the majority of people who catch it are asymptomatic and don't get tested and that there was virtually no testing for the first 2 months of the outbreak, is way, way higher. Lets say 30 million have already caught it, that's 10% of the population. Herd immunity is reached at 20%, (given there seems to be widespread T-cell immunity to the coof).

200K who have tested positive have died. A massive proportion of them have died with rather than because of the virus. How do we know this? Because the death certificates are NOT being released to the public. If the coronavirus had actually killed 200K people each and every death certificate would read "cause of death respiratory failure/pneumonia secondary to Covid-19". I'll bet my house most of the old people and obese diabetics who kicked the bucket did not die of respiratory failure.

So the left argues for total lockdown until we develop the magical vaccine, which maybe will be ready some time late next year. The vaccine for the Rona, just like the vaccine for every other respiratory virus, will at the very best give a partial immunity. It will work best on the young and healthy who have robust immune systems, it will likely do next to fuck all for the old and chronically sick who have compromised immune systems. It may help us achieve a herd immunity if we can convince the young to take the shot. But what's the difference between that and following the Swedish model of encouraging the young and healthy to contract the virus while doing our best to protect the vulnerable? A destroyed economy, huge spike in mental illness and other more serious chronic diseases like cancer being left untreated which together will cause far more deaths than an illness which is maybe two or three times more deadly than the seasonal flu. In the UK, which is weighing up whether to go into another lockdown, the number of people dying from seasonal flu is currently five times higher than the number dying with Corona.

If you are under 70 and in reasonable health you have absolutely nothing to worry about from this virus. Anyone who says otherwise is a fucking liar. We are continuing to pursue lockdown policies when we will have achieved herd immunity before any vaccine comes along. It's so irrational and retarded that it defies belief. I don't know if there's some underlying conspiracy to fuck us, or it's dumb politicians pursuing policies based on a sunk cost fallacy, but whatever it is it needs to stop. Protect the old and let the rest of us get on with living.
 
Lets say 30 million have already caught it, that's 10% of the population. Herd immunity is reached at 20%, (given there seems to be widespread T-cell immunity to the coof).
So I agree with your post 100% in spirit, and I agree with most of the body but this isn't inherently true.

1) Different diseases have different thresholds of herd immunity. Some diseases have limited herd immunity (generally fast-mutators & fast spreaders), while others have lower (generally slow mutators & slow spreaders). COVID-19 is a fast spreader and slow mutator so what the threshold of herd immunity will be is anyone's guess right now.

2) Herd immunity is not a binary finish line, its a building process of sorts.
Each new person that catches the disease and survives (except in rare cases) is now blocked as a vector. At 0% herd immunity the virus has 100% of the population as targets.
If 100% of the population has recently had the virus, it has 0% of the population as targets. Now the later is almost entirely hypothetical, and in reality most viruses would evolve enough to keep alive, even in small pockets.

So its wrong to throw out 20% as a hard number, but it's also worth pointing out each new person who pulls through an infection decreases the odds of the infection spreading ever so slightly.
 
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This is no photoshops


GOD I hate this year so fucking much...
 
Okay guys, sorry to bust in on the convo but I’m officially over this mask business. I got a job during the quarantine and I had to interview in my mask. My boss didn’t know what I looked like for like two weeks. To avoid PL, I work with plants. I feel naked and like I’m doing something wrong if I don’t have my mask on. Is the government just gonna be like “okay everybody masks off!” one day? Because I would jump on that immediately but I feel like my employer and maybe a bunch of other companies would have workers keep their masks on to appease costumers. (But okay if they’re that worried about COVID why are they casually shopping around smh). My boss even told me he had costumers walk out just because some people in the store were not wearing masks ( it was hot as balls during the summer). Like,, why are you buying bullshit if you’re so worried.
 
Okay guys, sorry to bust in on the convo but I’m officially over this mask business. I got a job during the quarantine and I had to interview in my mask. My boss didn’t know what I looked like for like two weeks. To avoid PL, I work with plants. I feel naked and like I’m doing something wrong if I don’t have my mask on. Is the government just gonna be like “okay everybody masks off!” one day? Because I would jump on that immediately but I feel like my employer and maybe a bunch of other companies would have workers keep their masks on to appease costumers. (But okay if they’re that worried about COVID why are they casually shopping around smh). My boss even told me he had costumers walk out just because some people in the store were not wearing masks ( it was hot as balls during the summer). Like,, why are you buying bullshit if you’re so worried.

They are bitting their time until we just get "used to it"
 
Okay guys, sorry to bust in on the convo but I’m officially over this mask business. I got a job during the quarantine and I had to interview in my mask. My boss didn’t know what I looked like for like two weeks. To avoid PL, I work with plants. I feel naked and like I’m doing something wrong if I don’t have my mask on. Is the government just gonna be like “okay everybody masks off!” one day? Because I would jump on that immediately but I feel like my employer and maybe a bunch of other companies would have workers keep their masks on to appease costumers. (But okay if they’re that worried about COVID why are they casually shopping around smh). My boss even told me he had costumers walk out just because some people in the store were not wearing masks ( it was hot as balls during the summer). Like,, why are you buying bullshit if you’re so worried.
It's sad that "costumer" makes as much sense as "customer" here.
 
So I agree with your post 100% in spirit, and I agree with most of the body but this isn't inherently true.

1) Different diseases have different thresholds of herd immunity. Some diseases have limited herd immunity (generally fast-mutators & fast spreaders), while others have lower (generally slow mutators & slow spreaders). COVID-19 is a fast spreader and slow mutator so what the threshold of herd immunity will be is anyone's guess right now.

2) Herd immunity is not a binary finish line, its a building process of sorts.
Each new person that catches the disease and survives (except in rare cases) is now blocked as a vector. At 0% herd immunity the virus has 100% of the population as targets.
If 100% of the population has recently had the virus, it has 0% of the population as targets. Now the later is almost entirely hypothetical, and in reality most viruses would evolve enough to keep alive, even in small pockets.

So its wrong to throw out 20% as a hard number, but it's also worth pointing out each new person who pulls through an infection decreases the odds of the infection spreading ever so slightly.
We do know that at around 10% the disease vector falls of a cliff. Best estimates that there are 5 times more positive cases than show up in testing, so when we get to a 2% positive case number for a given population the curve collapses as we reach suppression/ partial herd immunity. This happens every single time, lockdown or not.

The ZOMG! bullshit around the second wave in Europe and the US is nothing more that an artifact of testing. When the coof migrated out of China there was hardly any testing being done. Now with mass scale testing we're seeing equivalent positive case numbers but an extraordinarily low mortality rate, impossible for a slowly mutating virus.

My biggest concern is not Covid, the big pandemic wave is obviously done, but rather the lockdowns which are doing far more harm. Case in point is how we will handle the coming seasonal flu outbreaks this winter. They've kept people locked up for months. Stressed them out, prevented them from going outside and enjoying the sun leading to endemically low Vitamin D in the population and stopped people from mixing which also represses immune response. Oh and we're also making them wear stupid cloth masks, which are unhygienic leading to breathing in mold and bacteria. When boomers start dying in droves from the common flu will we at last see an end to this insanity?
 
Michigan, USA

[ETA: This whole thing is apparently moot, as the state Supreme Court has ruled that the 1945 law in question is unconstitutional. See my next post]

"Unlock Michigan" turned in their petitions today to limit Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D)'s emergency powers.

The legal situation: In Michigan we have two laws about states of emergency. One is from 1945 and sets no expiration date on a state of emergency proclaimed by the Governor. One is from 1976 and says that states of emergency last 28 days, and anything longer needs to be approved by the legislature. Since the 1976 law did not explicitly repeal the 1945 law, the Governor has argued that she can ignore the 1976 law's time limit and keep a state of emergency in effect as long as she sees fit, without the legislature's approval. This petiton is to repeal the 1945 law.

The group gathered 539,384 signatures, which will now be reviewed by the State Board of Canvassers. If they find that there are 340,047 valid signatures (63% of what was gathered) the petition will go before the Michigan legislature.
If a simple majority of both houses votes "yes," the petition becomes law and the Governor cannot veto it. If they vote "no," the petition is placed on the ballot at a future election (it won't be on the November ballot).

Unlock Michigan says the validation of signatures should take about 60 days. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) says it will take about 105 - i.e. after inauguration day, which in Michigan is January 1st. The Republicans currently control both chambers of the legislature. The Senate is not up for reelection; the House is, and Republicans there only have a 58-51 majority. (One Democrat died and has not yet been replaced).

It should also be noted that Michigan's Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) has launched a criminal investigation into Unlock Michigan on suspicion of collecting signatures via fraudulent means.


I remember reading or hearing somewhere (it's not in the linked articles) that even if the legislature approves the petition, it probably wouldn't take effect until April, for reasons I can't remember.
 
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tl;dr the why is: politicians are human, saw a scary situation, panicked when their initial plans didn't work, and went full retard. Now it's become convenient to perpetuate the current state of affairs.
I know my early reactions to the coof we're heavily motivated by what was coming out of China early this year, so I can understand the government's early reactions to the Wu-Flu. I remember when we got the first case in my state, I was expecting shit to get really bad really fast, but it never did. We're still under nine-hundred deaths here despite nobody following the lockdown measures, and our governor still insists on keeping these ineffectual measures in place when all they do is hurt people worse than the virus would have. At this point, the response has been so inflexible that it looks like the measures are being kept in place due to ego and spite rather than any "follow the science" justification I've seen. It's been time to change strategy for a while now.

At least I've learned not to get so doompilled about this kind of shit in the future. I know I was expecting a worst case scenario early on in this thread.
 
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