I overheard talk that Trump went out and greeted the rally. Now the narrative seems to be spun that Trump does not understand the virus and will infect all his rally supporters.
K.
I think they are running on the idea that Trump is the most hated president in history and anything they do will be an instant win as they are not Trump. It is nothing more than smugness that they hope will get to Trump supporters so that they feel bad or stupid for liking him. Basically, the media wants to run their narrative, if they admitted to Biden losing, then they would not hold a stance of power as they are the losers. They want to dilute others, and themselves, enough so that their winning will happen. Then they can come out and go “told you so, I am smart“ by the end. The late nights, the news, they want to be right, and in this selfish desire, they will only crash.
My mom has already gone off about how they should show his recovery bill and let the American people know. Something tells me that some sentiment will be spread about Trump’s healthcare and how he got coverage for this..blah...blah..blah...
Expect more health care peddling from Dems is all I am saying.
A hermetically sealed SUV, which the Secret Service uses to protect against gas attacks, so there's zero danger of Wu Flu cooties escaping to the supporter line.
And he did it with his USSS detail... who is already with him 24/7... and could not possibly get more exposed by taking a drive instead of standing in a room with him.
"We're going to listen to science and doctors!", my ass.
The only reason I even had that clip on tap was a couple of weeks ago I made a post for this tweet. View attachment 1641426
Apparently the Dems should be 60 points ahead this time around.
I recently spoke with a conservative friend in Texas who feels Texas is going blue this election, based on yard signs in his neighborhood compared to 2016, how close Beto was to Cruz in their senate race a few years ago, and the volume of Californians moving to the state (complaining about Californians seems to be an official pastime there).
Wonder if Texas could be the new Florida WRT nailbiters.
I recently spoke with a conservative friend in Texas who feels Texas is going blue this election, based on yard signs in his neighborhood compared to 2016, how close Beto was to Cruz in their senate race a few years ago, and the volume of Californians moving to the state (complaining about Californians seems to be an official pastime there).
Wonder if Texas could be the new Florida WRT nailbiters.
If your friend lives in Dallas, Austin, or Ft Worth, he's getting a slanted view.
(Not that I would take anything for granted, even in Texas, because Beto never should have become anything in Texas. But those 3 areas are the epicenter of the blue swarm.)
Got some info on early voting in FL and some data on Virginia (Not in play) and Georgia (also not in play).
First, early voting.
For FL, mail in ballots were sent 1 week earlier in Blue strongholds of Palm Beach and others than the red areas of the state. If you see anything about FL early voting, ignore it.
Also, getting reports of NC being gone for Democrats due to trends showing a 2% increase in the white vote early vote share vs a 5% decrease in the black vote compared to 2016. Not 100% on the reports yet, and I want to confirm it before I trust it more. However, if this trend happens nationwide, Trump wins.
Now data. Virginia is gone forever unfortunately for Dems due to DC spreading beyond its Maryland containment. You probably knew this, but here it is in imagery.
Also, Georgia's highest registering counties are all extremely Republican leaning/pro-Trump. Anything saying otherwise is bull. It is not a swing state as Virginia is not a swing state.
And lastly, this...
If your friend lives in Dallas, Austin, or Ft Worth, he's getting a slanted view.
(Not that I would take anything for granted, even in Texas, because Beto never should have become anything in Texas. But those 3 areas are the epicenter of the blue swarm.)
I recently spoke with a conservative friend in Texas who feels Texas is going blue this election, based on yard signs in his neighborhood compared to 2016, how close Beto was to Cruz in their senate race a few years ago, and the volume of Californians moving to the state (complaining about Californians seems to be an official pastime there).
Wonder if Texas could be the new Florida WRT nailbiters.
At worst, I see Trump winning Texas, but with rather uncomfortable margins that don't bode well for future elections if current trends continue. Yard signs can be illuminating but if I were going solely off of what I see locally I'd be saying Trump has a good chance of flipping California, which will never happen. I don't live in a particularly red part of CA.
If current trends continue the GOP is gonna be in great shape. The Dems are making enemies out of demographic groups faster than they are making friends.
My mom has already gone off about how they should show his recovery bill and let the American people know. Something tells me that some sentiment will be spread about Trump’s healthcare and how he got coverage for this..blah...blah..blah...
Expect more health care peddling from Dems is all I am saying.
Your mom could probably ask for it via a FOIA request. Its probably public knowledge. Though it might be classified for a while.
And if Trump was faking it, it would leak. The left / MSM probably has a gigantic bounty for any info that would lead to Trump out of office. And a whistleblower would probably be be protected by the left / media at all cost.
Knowing how broke the left and MSM are. And how stupid they are too, what I said above probably isn't a thing.
At worst, I see Trump winning Texas, but with rather uncomfortable margins that don't bode well for future elections if current trends continue. Yard signs can be illuminating but if I were going solely off of what I see locally I'd be saying Trump has a good chance of flipping California, which will never happen. I don't live in a particularly red part of CA.
I recently spoke with a conservative friend in Texas who feels Texas is going blue this election, based on yard signs in his neighborhood compared to 2016, how close Beto was to Cruz in their senate race a few years ago, and the volume of Californians moving to the state (complaining about Californians seems to be an official pastime there).
Wonder if Texas could be the new Florida WRT nailbiters.
Keep in mind that Beto almost won because of two very big reasons:
1. The Democrats basically focused all of their funds on that election alone. They spent SO much money on Beto's campaign. He was supposed to be their rising star.
2. Ted Cruz's political career was knocking on death's door between 2016 and 2018. His 2016 Presidential campaign left a sour taste for a lot of Republicans due to his attitudes towards Trump-- attitudes that he wouldn't let go of until he finally let Trump help with his campaign only a couple of days before the election. Cruz was damaged goods until Trump helped him out, thusly leading to his redemption arc. I think that 2020 Ted Cruz would mop the floor with 2018 Beto.
Greg Abbott was up for re-election in 2018, and won by double digits. If Texas were turning blue, then I think that Abbott would have had a much more difficult time winning re-election. Had Beto won that Senate seat, it would have been Ted Cruz's fault.
Keep in mind that Beto almost won because of two very big reasons:
1. The Democrats basically focused all of their funds on that election alone. They spent SO much money on Beto's campaign. He was supposed to be their rising star.
2. Ted Cruz's political career was knocking on death's door between 2016 and 2018. His 2016 Presidential campaign left a sour taste for a lot of Republicans due to his attitudes towards Trump-- attitudes that he wouldn't let go of until he finally let Trump help with his campaign only a couple of days before the election. Cruz was damaged goods until Trump helped him out, thusly leading to his redemption arc. I think that 2020 Ted Cruz would mop the floor with 2018 Beto.
Greg Abbott was up for re-election in 2018, and won by double digits. If Texas were turning blue, then I think that Abbott would have had a much more difficult time winning re-election. Had Beto won that Senate seat, it would have been Ted Cruz's fault.
Yeah Ted Cruz's behavior made him hated among Republicans in 2016 and was actually partly why Trump didn't do well with the conservative purists until he picked Mike Pence. Especially before then Trump was seen as a New York Liberal tryin to hijack the party (which is true to an extent as Trump is probably one of the more socially liberal candidate the Republicans had)
Yeah pretty much, like while he does speak social conservative talking points, it's obviously just keeping the conservative purists in line as Trump seems to care more about the economy and foreign policy more than anything else (especially when his best accomplishments are in those two fields in particular)
I wish more states would give out party registration data. It'd be helpful to how much Minnesota is trending to the right because based on this, it's going to be a closer race than I thought.
I suspect Trump will make gains in rural Minnesota and flip all Iron Range counties except maybe Cook County (which could go either way). Unfortunately, Trump is having issues with keeping suburban voters so he needs to make gains within the Democratic Machine counties of Ramsey and Hennepin County. Thanks to the riots damaging Minneapolis and to a lesser extent, St. Paul's economy, he has a great opportunity to flip voters and there are signs he is already doing that. They won't be red counties, but if he can make them a lighter shade of blue due to depressed turnout for Biden and increased turnout for himself, he can eek out the state by less than 2%.
If you want some insight into the BILLIONS of methodologies that arm-chair zoomer pundits are waving around on Twitter, all claiming to be right, I can provide both interesting trends and retarded methods of prediction. I'll stick with nonexceptional data for the most part.
PA has no type of the maps that I've posted that you are requesting in one post, because they do track party affiliation per county, so their is no need for estimation.
EDIT: PA now has a map.
PA Registration Trends View attachment 1638367 View attachment 1640089View attachment 1640088
Some guessing/ estimation bullshit. This faggot's twitter is also as annoying to read as you might think. Makes me want to slam bleach cocktails. View attachment 1638353View attachment 1638354
This trend is interesting because it uses a method of linear regression based on Gallop and voter trends. It was coded by an employed electrical engineer. View attachment 1638364
I wish I knew the methodology for that linear regression. I just don't see that huge of a margin.
Wisconsin has a map like posted, but it uses Iowa's rural areas as some approximation.
Michigan's map is here. Trends are strange since Macomb county (3rd biggest vote share outside Detroit is trending Trump by like 60-high 30s. He is also doing a little better in Detroit.
Turnout using that linear regression voter trend method I found showed a steep decrease in turnout. View attachment 1638379
Overall, while that vtuber simp is compiling data, he is waaaay too optimistic for Trump's actual chances. This is why I throw his estimations into the trash along with his taste. Guy predicts a NM flip. While there is an overall uptick in GOP registrations in NV and NM during the summer, I'm not predicting Trump winning there.
And for reference, I do look at other data or analysts on the Dem side to be impartial but most are trash or are just based on polls and 538. This video below is an example of bad election predictions. Motherfucker here is completely delusional. Video opens up with Nate JUST's fursona so I know it will be more trash than the headline. Plus, he thinks Biden will get 400+ EV, SC and Alaska are going blue, Ohio and Iowa are tossups again, and in general is just a Nate Silver cocksucker without anything else influencing his knowledge.
Overall, with expectations in check and all data collected I have found, I have one conclusion to draw:
What's interesting about Pennsylvania is that even in 2004 when the Democrats had a slightly higher share of registered voters than in 2000 that Bush was closer to grabbing it in his re-election campaign. My question is, how did Bush close that gap albeit not win it? Other than that, registration trends have favored if the state became more Democratic or Republican and Trump has the advantage of the most enthusiastic and loyal base since possibly Ronald Reagan. I would have liked to see him pay more attention to Bucks County too, that's a potential flip for Trump. I'm shocked Lackawanna County is a potential flip for Trump TBH. Are Democrats there just not enthused at all about Clinton or Biden?
If Barrett gets confirmed to succeed Ginsburg and Trump can push a successful narrative regarding his fight with COVID-19 (and not face life-threatening complications), then Trump's chances of keeping Pennsylvania skyrockets. Voter registration trends indicate that Trump will win the state by 1-2%, possibly 3% on a really good night. Barrett would rule in favor of Trump in the event of a contested election, giving us a 5-4 majority. The only way that Biden can win Pennsylvania under that circumstance is if he gets a much more enthusiastic turnout among Democrats and that's a hard sell. If Trump can win Pennsylvania by a larger margin, we might be looking at Pennsylvania turning light red.
As for Wisconsin and Michigan, not too much to say. I believe Wisconsin is more competitive than what Baris suspects but can easily see it going either way. Wayne and Macomb County are looking better for Trump, but Biden nostalgia is stronger there than in other Rust Belt states due to the bail out. I'm not sure he can offset enough of the losses in suburban voters to keep the state but if he's trending 15-20% among blacks, he could keep it by razor thing margin.
I'd like to see data in Nevada from 2016 to 2020, not just last year. If Democratic registration trend indicates it's turning blue, then even without voting fraud, it's probably going to stay blue for the foreseeable future. New Mexico might be worth paying attention too though. It won't flip, but if it's trending Republicans, we might see a consequential shift towards the right. 60.3% of the population as of 2019 (archive) are either Hispanic or Native American and we are seeing Trump losing white support, so a rightward shift would have to come from either populations. New Mexico also has a very old population of Hispanics and unlike Arizona, made practically no gains this decade, so even with a Mexican American population, it's a perfect example to show if non-immigrant Hispanics are trending red in voting patterns or not.
Got some info on early voting in FL and some data on Virginia (Not in play) and Georgia (also not in play).
First, early voting.
For FL, mail in ballots were sent 1 week earlier in Blue strongholds of Palm Beach and others than the red areas of the state. If you see anything about FL early voting, ignore it.
Also, getting reports of NC being gone for Democrats due to trends showing a 2% increase in the white vote early vote share vs a 5% decrease in the black vote compared to 2016. Not 100% on the reports yet, and I want to confirm it before I trust it more. However, if this trend happens nationwide, Trump wins.
Now data. Virginia is gone forever unfortunately for Dems due to DC spreading beyond its Maryland containment. You probably knew this, but here it is in imagery. View attachment 1641533
Also, Georgia's highest registering counties are all extremely Republican leaning/pro-Trump. Anything saying otherwise is bull. It is not a swing state as Virginia is not a swing state. View attachment 1641541
And lastly, this... View attachment 1641551
Virginia is a light blue state turning solid blue because of the culture, not because of higher nonwhite population. Unless Trump makes unexpected gains in the suburbs and does better in black support than we think, Virginia is gone for good. It's also why Colorado is solid blue state for the foreseeable future.
Good to know about Georgia performing so well in registration. I'm filing Georgia under Solid Trump for now, especially given its very conservative white population. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Trump made gains in the state.
Keep in mind that Beto almost won because of two very big reasons:
1. The Democrats basically focused all of their funds on that election alone. They spent SO much money on Beto's campaign. He was supposed to be their rising star.
2. Ted Cruz's political career was knocking on death's door between 2016 and 2018. His 2016 Presidential campaign left a sour taste for a lot of Republicans due to his attitudes towards Trump-- attitudes that he wouldn't let go of until he finally let Trump help with his campaign only a couple of days before the election. Cruz was damaged goods until Trump helped him out, thusly leading to his redemption arc. I think that 2020 Ted Cruz would mop the floor with 2018 Beto.
Greg Abbott was up for re-election in 2018, and won by double digits. If Texas were turning blue, then I think that Abbott would have had a much more difficult time winning re-election. Had Beto won that Senate seat, it would have been Ted Cruz's fault.
Regarding Texas, we will have to see what happens with 2020. Trump is going to receive at least around 40% of the Hispanic vote in the state with second largest share of Hispanics but people are also saying it's subjected to Californication. Hopefully Trump can get back to around 10% above Biden in Texas this election but if it makes a significant shift to the left, then that points squarely to the population becoming more liberal.
I hope that Texas doesn't flip this decade, but it might if 2020 only has Trump winning by a hair-raising margin.
