- Joined
- Jul 17, 2019
I'm taking this as "McConnell and Graham better keep pushing the Dems into the eventual and inevitable hearing to confirm Barrett next week."Update on early voting metrics.
Nevada may still be in play, but we have to wait until Clark County (Las Vegas) starts its VBM operation in 4 days on Oct 10. I am not taking it as likely for Trump until we get those results. Sorry for jumping the gun on these results with no context.
In general, this is horrible for Democrats for a variety of reasons. DEMOCRATS ALWAYS LEAD IN THE EARLY VOTE, and here they aren't. This means death come election day, when the Republicans come out en masse due to Trump endorsing it. Not only were they supposed to get out and MOSTLY vote by mail, it seems like that isn't the case in key states. We are talking a 60-70% vote by mail share. Its only 50 and change. Democrats are just not voting at levels to
1. Win key states
2. Cause this 30% new voter electorate going 90% Biden to make it a 10 point Biden lead like in all the polls say.
Youth early voting is way below expected. This should be obvious, because if BERNIE couldn't get them out to get him the nomination, how the fuck would Biden?
Wisconsin in particular is voting a lot by mail and still shows Dems and Republicans tied, with over 200k votes cast. Not a Nevada situation as far as I see (until I can retract it). Jury's out on Michigan.
If you see Florida, before you have a heart attack, remember they sent the ballots to the blue parts a week early. The red parts are catching up, and most will vote on election day.
Again, the trend is that Democrats always lead in early voting as Baris said. We shouldn't take this as a cruise to victory, but a projector of what's to come.
Here is the website if you want to observe results.
No wonder they're flipping for in-person voting now. And all of the media pundits haven't got the word; they're just reporting the numbers, recommending VBM, and saying "Trump says VBM bad, but there's no prove lol."
It's no guarantee, but the Dems should really stop suckling off of China. They always get themselves stuck in their own finger traps.