2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Update on early voting metrics.
Nevada may still be in play, but we have to wait until Clark County (Las Vegas) starts its VBM operation in 4 days on Oct 10. I am not taking it as likely for Trump until we get those results. Sorry for jumping the gun on these results with no context.

In general, this is horrible for Democrats for a variety of reasons. DEMOCRATS ALWAYS LEAD IN THE EARLY VOTE, and here they aren't. This means death come election day, when the Republicans come out en masse due to Trump endorsing it. Not only were they supposed to get out and MOSTLY vote by mail, it seems like that isn't the case in key states. We are talking a 60-70% vote by mail share. Its only 50 and change. Democrats are just not voting at levels to
1. Win key states
2. Cause this 30% new voter electorate going 90% Biden to make it a 10 point Biden lead like in all the polls say.

Youth early voting is way below expected. This should be obvious, because if BERNIE couldn't get them out to get him the nomination, how the fuck would Biden?

Wisconsin in particular is voting a lot by mail and still shows Dems and Republicans tied, with over 200k votes cast. Not a Nevada situation as far as I see (until I can retract it). Jury's out on Michigan.

If you see Florida, before you have a heart attack, remember they sent the ballots to the blue parts a week early. The red parts are catching up, and most will vote on election day.

Again, the trend is that Democrats always lead in early voting as Baris said. We shouldn't take this as a cruise to victory, but a projector of what's to come.

Here is the website if you want to observe results.
I'm taking this as "McConnell and Graham better keep pushing the Dems into the eventual and inevitable hearing to confirm Barrett next week."

No wonder they're flipping for in-person voting now. And all of the media pundits haven't got the word; they're just reporting the numbers, recommending VBM, and saying "Trump says VBM bad, but there's no prove lol."

It's no guarantee, but the Dems should really stop suckling off of China. They always get themselves stuck in their own finger traps.
 
Is there any Iowa early voting data? I know in previous elections it was extremely Dem early on at this point by more than double Republican.
 
Is there any Iowa early voting data? I know in previous elections it was extremely Dem early on at this point by more than double Republican.
Check NBC for results.
Here's Iowa. This is the only one I'll pull until we get interesting results from Rust Belt states, FL, ect.
IOWAEv.jpg

You see a lot of blue, right? Democrats ALWAYS dominate early voting. They did in 2016 in Florida and NC, and still lost them. Also keep in mind that Iowa is not competitive and is going to go to Trump easily. It evaluates that early vote gives us a peek, but not the whole picture.

As for the results here, unsuprising. I guess they havent tabulated ballot returns yet or don't report them.
 
So. I live in a blue state, and I commute in a very, very blue county.

I have seen more Biden signs than Trump signs, don't get me wrong ... But I see a lot of "Back the Blue" and "Blue Lives Matter" signs and bumper stickers, which might as well be Trump signs at this point, right?

The amount of Biden signs I've seen are still in the single digits, though. In 2016, I saw a lot more "I'm With Her" stickers and signs by comparison, and I distinctly remember noticing a lack of enthusiasm for "representin'" Hillary back then when compared to Obama (where his stickers and signs were literally everywhere back in 2008 and 2012) or even John Kerry back in '04. I just don't see the enthusiasm for Joe, even in a state where he will win.

On a side note, I recently moved and I have a new neighbor who had a huge homemade wooden Biden sign in her front yard, saying "For the SOUL of America." I drove by it every day for two weeks straight. I do not see the sign anymore. I thought she might have been working on a new one, but it's been weeks. She has since placed an American flag in her front yard. Not indicative of any "trend" or if she's changed her vote or anything ... But man. Zero enthusiasm.
 
So. I live in a blue state, and I commute in a very, very blue county.

I have seen more Biden signs than Trump signs, don't get me wrong ... But I see a lot of "Back the Blue" and "Blue Lives Matter" signs and bumper stickers, which might as well be Trump signs at this point, right?

The amount of Biden signs I've seen are still in the single digits, though. In 2016, I saw a lot more "I'm With Her" stickers and signs by comparison, and I distinctly remember noticing a lack of enthusiasm for "representin'" Hillary back then when compared to Obama (where his stickers and signs were literally everywhere back in 2008 and 2012) or even John Kerry back in '04. I just don't see the enthusiasm for Joe, even in a state where he will win.

On a side note, I recently moved and I have a new neighbor who had a huge homemade wooden Biden sign in her front yard, saying "For the SOUL of America." I drove by it every day for two weeks straight. I do not see the sign anymore. I thought she might have been working on a new one, but it's been weeks. She has since placed an American flag in her front yard. Not indicative of any "trend" or if she's changed her vote or anything ... But man. Zero enthusiasm.
Honestly I think this attributes to Joe Biden being the Mitt Romney of the Democrat party as both candidates try to run squeaky clean campaigns that rely entirely on not being the incumbent president. Biden however has the advantage of the media defending him for gaffes that would destroy other candidates and blatantly hiding his health issues from the public.

Trump on the other hand has enthusiasm that is shared by many presidents who have a naturally high charisma that leads to a cult of personality like Obama, Clinton, JFK, Reagan, and Pre-Watergate Nixon. Trump winning is something that would naturally happen here but if he were to lose then he'd be the first incumbent president with a popular following to lose to someone who runs on not being them.

We'll just have to wait and see in November for what happens.
 
So. I live in a blue state, and I commute in a very, very blue county.

I have seen more Biden signs than Trump signs, don't get me wrong ... But I see a lot of "Back the Blue" and "Blue Lives Matter" signs and bumper stickers, which might as well be Trump signs at this point, right?
I disagree.

It is still perfectly possible to be pro-Biden, and pro-cop at the exact same time. I know the mainstream media, and lunatics on Twitter make that seem like it's impossible, but there's a sizable amount of people in this country who are both these things, and just keep quiet about it.
 
I disagree.

It is still perfectly possible to be pro-Biden, and pro-cop at the exact same time. I know the mainstream media, and lunatics on Twitter make that seem like it's impossible, but there's a sizable amount of people in this country who are both these things, and just keep quiet about it.
Possible? Sure. Likely? Nope-- especially since the media and the Trump Admin have made a direct association with those slogans, and when so many law enforcement departments have formally endorsed Trump for re-election.

One of my neighbors has a Blue Lives Matter flag, a Semper Fi flag, and a Gasden flag on his car. I mean, I guess it's possible for him to be a Biden supporter ... But I'll wager a bet that he's probably a Trump supporter. lol.
 
Possible? Sure. Likely? Nope-- especially since the media and the Trump Admin have made a direct association with those slogans, and when so many law enforcement departments have formally endorsed Trump for re-election.

One of my neighbors has a Blue Lives Matter flag, a Semper Fi flag, and a Gasden flag on his car. I mean, I guess it's possible for him to be a Biden supporter ... But I'll wager a bet that he's probably a Trump supporter. lol.
Trust me, a good chunk of the country doesn't give a shit about what the media says. A lot of them are friends with cops irl, and they're not about to turn on them just because MSM, or CNN tells them to. They're also not about to become Trumptards, and switch sides just because their cop buddies endorsed him.

I know it's hard to believe nowadays, but you can be friends with people with different political views.
 
Trust me, a good chunk of the country doesn't give a shit about what the media says. A lot of them are friends with cops irl, and they're not about to turn on them just because MSM, or CNN tells them to. They're also not about to become Trumptards, and switch sides just because their cop buddies endorsed him.

I know it's hard to believe nowadays, but you can be friends with people with different political views.

You are talking as if the year isn't 2020; as if lockdowns and riots haven't happened for the majority of the year.

In a normal election year, sure! I'm inclined to agree. This year, though? Shit's crazy, with no signs of letting up. People are mad, fatigued, scared, depressed, etc ... I have seen and experienced the loss of friendships over the current events of this year. It goes beyond politics when the current events are pretty much affecting most Americans' personal lives.

"Yeah, I'm a cop and my job is now 100x more dangerous, and the Democrats keep wanting to defund us, and they refuse to call the protests riots and all. They also call me a racist over some junkie pornstar with a violent record ... But, you know, Biden's still cool and all! I think I'll vote for him!" Yeah right.
 
You are talking as if the year isn't 2020; as if lockdowns and riots haven't happened for the majority of the year.

In a normal election year, sure! I'm inclined to agree. This year, though? Shit's crazy, with no signs of letting up. People are mad, fatigued, scared, depressed, etc ... I have seen and experienced the loss of friendships over the current events of this year. It goes beyond politics when the current events are pretty much affecting most Americans' personal lives.

"Yeah, I'm a cop and my job is now 100x more dangerous, and the Democrats keep wanting to defund us, and they refuse to call the protests riots and all. They also call me a racist over some junkie pornstar with a violent record ... But, you know, Biden's still cool and all! I think I'll vote for him!" Yeah right.
I understand your anger, and disbelief, but you have to remember that what you see on social media, and the news doesn't represent the majority of America.

People are angry, tired, upset, and scared, but most of them aren't about to turn on each other. Dave might be a dyed in the wool, MAGA loving cop, but he's not about to turn on his friend Mike, despite the guy being Biden loving, "always vote blue" democrat.

They have things in common despite their differing political views, and they're not about to throw away their friendship because of riots happening hundreds of miles away, or because of lockdowns, or because the media says they should. And if they stopped being friends, it doesn't mean they'd stop being civil to each other. They know better than to just start hating someone just because they have different opinions than they do.

I also didn't say the cop was a democrat, but that's besides the point. The point is that at the end of the day, and regardless of how crazy things are, people can, and do get along with each other despite having different political views. And if you can't believe that, you've given into the fear-mongering, and hateful bullshit the media has been giving to you.
 
I understand your anger, and disbelief, but you have to remember that what you see on social media, and the news doesn't represent the majority of America.

People are angry, tired, upset, and scared, but most of them aren't about to turn on each other. Dave might be a dyed in the wool, MAGA loving cop, but he's not about to turn on his friend Mike, despite the guy being Biden loving, "always vote blue" democrat.

They have things in common despite their differing political views, and they're not about to throw away their friendship because of riots happening hundreds of miles away, or because of lockdowns, or because the media says they should. And if they stopped being friends, it doesn't mean they'd stop being civil to each other. They know better than to just start hating someone just because they have different opinions than they do.

I also didn't say the cop was a democrat, but that's besides the point. The point is that at the end of the day, and regardless of how crazy things are, people can, and do get along with each other despite having different political views. And if you can't believe that, you've given into the fear-mongering, and hateful bullshit the media has been giving to you.

Please show me these people. Because I am fatigued from the remnants of my social life IRL (not online, mind you ... In real life). I'm sure these people exist, don't get me wrong, but there is an increasing amount of political tension within the country, and it's getting worse.

When a friend that you've known for 20 years tells you to your face that they have no problems ending the friendship over political differences, then the world doesn't look like sunshine and rainbows.

Among the few friendships I have left, I feel like I am constantly walking on eggshells around people because every word potentially feels like a landmine. Even discussions with extended family are tense. There's a reason why I am, for the most part, a closeted Trump supporter. I'm shutting up just to merely keep the peace and avoid flat-out tension. When people start the conversation with, "I hate people who support Trump, and I never want to associate with Trump supporters," then there's no really civil disagreement to be had, is there?

Even when I go out to run errands, it feels much more tense. People are meaner, more rude and impatient, greedy, etc.

The majority of people don't listen to the media or don't care about what the media says? Tell that to the empty toilet paper shelves back when the media told everyone to start panicking over COVID.
 
EDIT: It looks like the data was "modeled." I'm skeptical, I think they might not be taking COVID into account in their models.
All polls are bullshit regardless of what the results tell you.

To pour a bucket of cold water on the people counting signs on lawns as if that means anything, there is a large mass of Democrat voters who do it because their family has voted for Democrats since FDR. I have a large extended family (lol catholics) and they hated Hillary but have already voted for or are about to early vote for Biden and a lot of them are in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

All polls are bullshit. Counting lawn signs are pretty retarded too because those are vocal minorities; the vast majority who will vote don’t have those signs. You can’t extrapolate anything meaningful from this. Democrats plan on winning by committing wide scale voter fraud: more attention should be focus on how to stop it rather than checking bumper stickers.
 
All polls are bullshit regardless of what the results tell you.

To pour a bucket of cold water on the people counting signs on lawns as if that means anything, there is a large mass of Democrat voters who do it because their family has voted for Democrats since FDR. I have a large extended family (lol catholics) and they hated Hillary but have already voted for or are about to early vote for Biden and a lot of them are in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

All polls are bullshit. Counting lawn signs are pretty retarded too because those are vocal minorities; the vast majority who will vote don’t have those signs. You can’t extrapolate anything meaningful from this. Democrats plan on winning by committing wide scale voter fraud: more attention should be focus on how to stop it rather than checking bumper stickers.
Oh yeah, I agree with your sentiments. At the end of the day, the votes are the only thing that matter. It's just that there's "poll data," and then there's the level of enthusiasm for the candidates. In my area, in a solid blue state, I find it unique and out of the ordinary that I'm rarely seeing signs for the Democrat nomination for the Presidential Election compared to previous elections in my lifetime. This election year is very, very different from what I am used to. Low enthusiasm is Joe Biden's campaign story, pretty much.

The amount of legitimate Biden votes is going to be determined by how strong Trump Derangement Syndrome is, rather than it being determined by the quality of the candidate they are voting for from the looks of it. Historically, a person whose campaign is dependent on "how worse the other guy is" typically doesn't end well.
 
Please show me these people. Because I am fatigued from the remnants of my social life IRL (not online, mind you ... In real life). I'm sure these people exist, don't get me wrong, but there is an increasing amount of political tension within the country, and it's getting worse.

When a friend that you've known for 20 years tells you to your face that they have no problems ending the friendship over political differences, then the world doesn't look like sunshine and rainbows.

Among the few friendships I have left, I feel like I am constantly walking on eggshells around people because every word potentially feels like a landmine. Even discussions with extended family are tense. There's a reason why I am, for the most part, a closeted Trump supporter. I'm shutting up just to merely keep the peace and avoid flat-out tension. When people start the conversation with, "I hate people who support Trump, and I never want to associate with Trump supporters," then there's no really civil disagreement to be had, is there?

Even when I go out to run errands, it feels much more tense. People are meaner, more rude and impatient, greedy, etc.

The majority of people don't listen to the media or don't care about what the media says? Tell that to the empty toilet paper shelves back when the media told everyone to start panicking over COVID.
I would if I could, but I don't want to powerlevel, or dox anyone over this. I'd love to show you that people can, and do have a great time together despite all this chaos, and even if they need to take admittedly annoying precautions now. I'd love to go out, and buy you a beer. It sounds like you really need it, no offense.

As for politics, the people I know just don't talk about it. I know it's incredibly hard to do so nowadays because everything and anything feels like it has to be politicized, but the people over here find a way to do it. They talk about hunting, or fishing, or sports, or whatever else they can. Admittedly, I live in a very small town, and I know my experiences aren't universal, but I also know that all the hatred, and rioting isn't universal either.

For your few friendships, and even though I'm sure you've already done this, all I can recommend is just focusing on what you do have in common with them, and not what you don't. Don't talk about the news, or politics, or whatever. Talk about video games, or TV shows, or whatever else you had in common before all this. If they start rambling on about how awful Trump is or whatever, try to change the subject to something less political. If they refuse to listen, just walk away. It's not worth fighting over. I've had to do that to, and eventually, we made up.

Trust me, my mother suffers from TDS, and she can and will rant about him whenever she gets the chance. This is why whenever I visit, or talk to her, I don't bring up politics, and if she does, I just politely try to change the subject. If she refuses to listen, then I just walk away, or hang up. I don't fight with her, because at the end of the day, I know it's not worth fighting over, and that she's just scared because she's an old, sickly, woman who just afraid for her future and the future of her children. I know it's not an excuse for her behavior, and it does frustrate, and anger the shit out of me, but I love her, and she loves me, and I'm not going to let politics ruin that.

With the panicking over Covid, the majority of people did listen because it was something different from the usual bullshit they'd been hearing for the last four years. It was this new, scary thing that people didn't know how to handle, or much about, so they did go out, and panic at first. Now that they do know more about it, and how it isn't nearly as catastrophic as the media and politicians made it out to be, and how we can now effectively treat it, they've gone back to ignoring them again. Sure, they might still wear a mask, but that's out of common courtesy, and just to save hassle, if anything.
 
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Looking at the current state of the libertarians, they probably stealing votes from democrats more than republicans.

Makes sense, considering Jo's the only third-party candidate on the ballot in many states. Even in "safe" Dem states like Virginia, Howie Hawkins and Kanye are being kept off the ballot by the state courts, which makes me think the DNC's a lot more worried about Biden's chances than they let on.

I think they kept the Libertarian candidate on the ballot because they think she'll take more votes away from Trump and because getting rid of all third-party candidates will be really fishy to even the most low-info of normie voters.

It's not. I get the feeling Green Party niggas went yellow as one last "Fuck you!" to the Democrats.

Dare I say, Jo! 2020

Pretty much. Considering that they're doing everything they can to keep the Greens and Kanye West off the ballot in many states, I think that could happen.
 
I guess to play devil's advocate, a lot of black voters in many states did show up to vote for Biden in the primaries this year; the demographic was part of the reason why Bernie got BTFO'd. I'm guessing Obama nostalgia was pretty strong.

That said, a lot has happened since then. And I think that the BLM movement may have (a) helped enough African Americans switch to the MAGA movement, and (b) worn down the black vote; "black-pilled" them, if you will. There's also a huge rift within the Democrat Party at this moment, between neo-liberals and straight-up Marxists.
The black support for Biden and Hillary in the primaries was driven by Democratic machine politics in the key southern primary states. The preachers and community organizers who drive those primary vote efforts are handsomely rewarded by the party, they're one of the most important defensive measures against upstarts like Bernie.

They're not as useful in the general, though. There's a big difference between driving black voter turnout in a few key areas to swing a primary and driving it all over the country to win a national election. A lot of black voters in swing states don't have reverends putting them on buses to go vote.
 
Ah shit, my betting might be wrong.

I'm still going under the delusion AKA safe guess that Drumpf is not going to win Nevada. Safe guess. He's been more focused on flipping Minnesota and some of the more nearer blue southern states instead of Nevada, so I don't think he'll win Nevada for that reason and not only for other reasons since despite winning by a lower margin in 2016, it was pretty damn blue.
 
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