I'd argue Florida is redder than Arizona at this point. Trump is benefiting from an increase black and especially Hispanics, but it disproportionately helps him in Florida where there is a large percentage of Cubans and Venezuelans, who are voting right in comparison to other Hispanic groups. Venezuelans might very well be Trump's best group in Florida. While it's nice to see Maricopa County trending red, the rest of the state has been trending blue. We might be surprised in Florida with a 2-3% Trump victory but Trump likely won't carry Arizona by more than 2% unless Mexican-Americans are also trending right to similar extent.
Wisconsin Article,
Link 1 /
Archive
This is why I keep saying Wisconsin is not as unlikely to stay a Trump state as some may think, even apparently Baris. That's not to say it will happen but any states that requires counting the ballot on Election Day is bound to help Trump just on the basis of reducing fraud.
Pennsylvania voter registration shift
Link 2 /
Archive (May 18, 2020)
Link 3 /
Archive (July 29, 2020)
Link 4 /
Archive (August 31, 2020)
Link 5 /
Archive (October 5, 2020)
Spreadsheet dating back to 2015 for those who want it.
Fun fact: Johnstown was the city where the worst flood in the United States happened. Over 2000 people died in 1889.
That morbidness aside, every day makes it clearer Trump voters have a lot more on the line than your average Biden voter (outside maybe the elites and their propaganda arms). The average Biden voter just wants to get the bad orange man out of office. The worst that happens in the event of a Biden loss is that they throw a holy hell tantrum, calm down, and then get on with their lives like last time. Trump voters on the other hand have a lot to lose. They voted for Trump because for decades, their jobs were shipped to China and people were moving away from their towns. Now his administration has given them hope that their career still has a future given how manufacturing has been returning to this country. Their livelihood is at stake and many Trump voters can't afford to spend years acquiring a white collar career if Harris ships their jobs back to China, India, Mexico, etc. Survival of towns like Johnstown and those in the Iron Range may literally depend on a Trump victory. It goes without saying who is more enthusiastic.
Also, it's worth noting that not only has the registration gap been closing, but that it is
accelerating. In May 2020, Democrats had a D+803,427 advantage. Then in July, we saw that reduced to D+783,116, the margin closing by 20,311 votes. Within a month, the Democrats had a D+758,854 advantage, the margin closing by 24,262. Now we have a new report that as of October 5th, Democrats' advantage have reduced to D+717,386. Republicans closed the margin by 41,468, nearly twice of that of the previous update. That's amazing news for Republicans, especially since they will need all the vote they can get in what will likely be the state that decides the election.
Of course we also have to remember that in October, Trump had to reveal he had COVID-19 and he also shot down the poisonous stimulus bill. I know that right-wing electoral pollsters are ready to spin how much Republicans are winning voters in Pennsylvania with this argument, but registration does not close until the 19th. My point is, if either Trump catching COVID-19 or shooting down the Pelosi stimulus bill proposal reverse registration trends, Florida's results won't reflect it since voter registration is already closed. Pennsylvania will provide a more accurate look on whenever or not voter registration stays favoring Republicans or not.
If Democrats increase their margin from October 5th, then Biden has a good shot of flipping Pennsylvania. If Republicans keeps closing the margin though, then it is Trump's to lose and Biden has to rely on either voter fraud and/or a shockingly energetic turnout that we have seen no evidence of to flip it, which I'm not sure if he can do.