2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Jarolleon]

Awfully elitist to say the only people that matter are the ones in cities...who also vote DEM on mass.

A bit more insidious than that, it's appealing to a very common idea, that all men are created equal. So with enough naivete you'd wonder why some people's votes are weighted more than others, and the explanation for this is a bit more long-winded than the question, & so less convincing to the low-info voter.

 

[XYZpdq]

You know what sucks? Believing Biden's double digits.

local conservative media that was on the scene was joking about how the "in range of heckling CNN" seats were probably tickets you could scalp for good money

 

[RockPaper]

Indiana is strong Trump, it's similar to Iowa in regards to farming but more religious. Pence was their governor, so there is some name recognition.
You still have Indy being the lone blue city, but the state not having any riots (only chanting and the like) shows the strong conservative hold.

I would be hesitant to call it as red as KY or TN, but if Iowa were red than most likely so would Indiana.

Indiana is more reliably red than TN or KY, or even a lot of other stereotypical "red" states. Obama '08 was the only Dem to barely win it since LBJ. Before LBJ, the last Dem to win it was FDR in 1936. It also voted against FDR twice. It was one of the first states to be called for Bush41 in '92 when everyone knew Clinton was going to beat him in many other places. It votes GOP 75% of the time all the way back to 1860.

Pence doesn't need to be there - it's always going red until the Sun flames out, maybe.

 

[Someone Awful]

Now that the live stream is finished, here it is. The preliminary results for the Pennsylvania poll. Final results will be out tomorrow.

I'll reply to this post when I watch the whole thing.

Watched it. Keep in mind we will get final results tomorrow. Very, very, interesting stuff, worth the watch.

- When weighted, Biden is at a D+2.29. Keep in mind that in Baris's poll, Hillary Clinton was 3 or 4 points by October 24 in that state.
- 46 out of 54 counties in Pennsylvania are the cultural Appalachian region
- The final number will look different from what they are talking about today
- Currently at 1001 responses
- Reached out Independents around the states than the Sienna poll
- Raw electorate was D+9, D+10, or even D+11. 2016 in Pennsylvania was D+3 in exit polling, but Baris speculates it was actually D+4 or D+5
- Wants to get more responses from Erie, Bucks, and Beaver County
- Allegheny County: Biden 55.9% - Trump 35.3%
- Philadelphia Suburbs: Biden 50.4% - Trump 37%
- Barnes suggest the reason why the polls are so off for Biden - meaning he's not going to landslide in swing states - is because they use limited mode to poll
- Trump is up 55-44 with Luzerne, Lackawanna, and Monroe County
- Not a lot of response in Northeast Pennsylvania, but seems to be going for Biden
- Trump winning Greene County by only twenty points, much smaller than in 2016
- Berks County seems to be slipping away from Trump yet for some reason, is winning Chester County
- Bucks County is +7 Biden
- Baris can see Biden doing better in rural areas that were not friendly to Clinton
- He believes the sample is too moderate and too liberal
- Barnes speculates that the continuing decline in response mode and changes in modes and methodology may actually favor Biden
- Pollings have gotten even worse since 2018 and COVID-19 may have contributed to the increased bias in polls like YouGov which oversamples liberals
- Weighting control, which was a big thing under the 2012 election, is no longer a thing among many pollsters
- The sample Baris has so far is inconsistent, at least before weighting
- Barnes suspects that polls are inflated for Biden/Democrats because it is early voting and those who have voted early - especially on the Democratic side who will make up the majority of early votes - are more excited to tell who they voted for
- Democrats in general are not meeting expectations for voting by mail. Either they run a little below average (Virginia, Minnesota, and North Carolina) or awful (Michigan and Wisconsin). They are failing to get youth voters out there.
- Barnes wants to look at early voting for North Dakota and South Dakota. As they do not have any "Get out the votes!" (GOTV) efforts or competitive races that would put Republican incumbents in danger, he wants to see if Republicans are overperforming or underperforming where over 20% have voted
- South Dakota has a 19 point lead with Republicans while North Dakota has a 47 point lead, both states have high Norwegian populations which is indicative of how they will also vote in rural Minnesota and western Wisconsin. He speculates that polling errors is because the Norwegians are hard to reachs
- In Pennsylvania, Trump is winning Polish (53-40), Italians, French (60-40), German, Scot-Irish but losing non-Scot Irish Catholic to Biden by six points, English, and Dutch.
- Baris finds it odd that Trump is winning Chester County yet losing Bucks County by seven points, wants to reach out to Italians there
- Trump is doing great among economy and policing, but is getting killed in healthcare and coronavirus
- Baris and Barnes believe that Republicans totally screwed up by not preparing for Barrett's position on ObamaCare and pre-existing condition
- Confirms in the raw data that Trump is taking around 20% of the black votes in Pennsylvania
- Trump is winning among crossover votes compared to Biden who is only getting 8% of Republicans but needs to improve his margin among Indepedents as tied is not good enough
- Nearly half of the Pennsylvanian voters have no confidence in the integrity of this election and that's before weighting
- Most people are uncomfortable with Kamala Harris being president
- Fracking is overwhelmingly supported in Pennsylvania
- Leaners are going for Trump by three point
- Baris's 2016 poll did not show it going to Clinton+3 until October 24th (and might have been at Clinton+4)
- When Baris asked the question of if people were comfortable or uncomfortable with telling others about who they are voting for among family, friends, strangers, neighbors, co-workers, and pollsters, it is significantly worse than in Florida, a far more Republican-friendly state
- Barnes explains that Gallup did in-person polling from 1936 to 1968, switched to landline from 1968 to 2004, and that pollsters moved to online during the 2000s. Half of the people with a landline were polled, which creates random sampling. With the move to online polling, it gets rid of random sampling, making polling purely an art rather than half art-half science
- Most pollsters have failed to correct their mistakes from 2016 as they take the wrong lessons from why they got the election result wrong. Like for example, they aren't adjusting both education and region, just education
- Philadelphia was grossly overrepresented in the raw data at 18.8%. Weighting should take it down between 12-14%, making it an unusually low turnout
- Barnes believes that voter registration is a more accurate predictor of electoral outcome than polls. Voter registration trends have shown whenever or not a state trends Republican or Democratic. Ex. in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, Bush made gains in these states compared to 2004, they all dramatically shifted Democratic in 2008 when Obama had his landslide, shifted Republican when Obama had a closer victory, and all voted Trump when they shifted Republican again. All three states have trended Republican at an even faster rate than 2020.
- Baris plans to get 150 more samples
- Biden is three points ahead in Centre County
- Currently tied in Erie County, but that about 14% of the voters there are undecided (which neither Baris or Barnes believes)
- Nearly 2/3 of people believe there are "shy" voters who do not want to share they want to vote for Trump
- It's looking like Trump may flip Monroe County
- Trump is crushing Biden when it comes to working class voters 55-35

 

[Kulee Baba]

A lot of hoopla is being made because Allan Lichtman who correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote of every US Election since 1984 (excluding 2016 since Hillary won the popular vote) has predicted Biden will win the popular vote and thus most likely win the Electoral College as well. I'm here to tell you that his "13 Keys" is a very decent model but Lichtman has been fooled by his own liberal biases and is wrong this time. Highlighted is what I disagree with.

5 & 6. This is an unusual era due to shutdowns all over the world. Incumbents are thrown out due to recessions because voters naturally blame leaders. I think we can agree that this Covid would have happened no matter who was president. Also Trump and the Fed have prevented the ceiling falling on us by printing money. Stocks are up and so are house prices. The recession is undoubtedly coming but we're not in it yet. Thus both statements are true.
11. Trump has achieved major inroads in making peace in the Middle East. Also Trump has been getting soldiers out of Afganinstan and Iraq which the majority of Americans have wanted for very long. Finally ISIS & Muslim Terrorism itself has slowed down significantly under Trump. I don't see how those are not major successes.
12. Trump's not charismatic? He is one of the most absurdly charismatic people there is. That's why we're all fascinated by him.

So to sum it up Lictman says Trump will lose because 7 of his 13 statements have come up "False." In my view only 3 statements are false and by the prediction system's rules that means Trump wins. But maybe my bias is effecting me as well? We'll find out in a month.

 

[FunPosting101]

Watched it. Keep in mind we will get final results tomorrow. Very, very, interesting stuff, worth the watch.

- When weighted, Biden is at a D+2.29. Keep in mind that in Baris's poll, Hillary Clinton was 3 or 4 points by October 24 in that state.
- 46 out of 54 counties in Pennsylvania are the cultural Appalachian region
- The final number will look different from what they are talking about today
- Currently at 1001 responses
- Reached out Independents around the states than the Sienna poll
- Raw electorate was D+9, D+10, or even D+11. 2016 in Pennsylvania was D+3 in exit polling, but Baris speculates it was actually D+4 or D+5
- Wants to get more responses from Erie, Bucks, and Beaver County
- Allegheny County: Biden 55.9% - Trump 35.3%
- Philadelphia Suburbs: Biden 50.4% - Trump 37%
- Barnes suggest the reason why the polls are so off for Biden - meaning he's not going to landslide in swing states - is because they use limited mode to poll
- Trump is up 55-44 with Luzerne, Lackawanna, and Monroe County
- Not a lot of response in Northeast Pennsylvania, but seems to be going for Biden
- Trump winning Greene County by only twenty points, much smaller than in 2016
- Berks County seems to be slipping away from Trump yet for some reason, is winning Chester County
- Bucks County is +7 Biden
- Baris can see Biden doing better in rural areas that were not friendly to Clinton
- He believes the sample is too moderate and too liberal
- Barnes speculates that the continuing decline in response mode and changes in modes and methodology may actually favor Biden
- Pollings have gotten even worse since 2018 and COVID-19 may have contributed to the increased bias in polls like YouGov which oversamples liberals
- Weighting control, which was a big thing under the 2012 election, is no longer a thing among many pollsters
- The sample Baris has so far is inconsistent, at least before weighting
- Barnes suspects that polls are inflated for Biden/Democrats because it is early voting and those who have voted early - especially on the Democratic side who will make up the majority of early votes - are more excited to tell who they voted for
- Democrats in general are not meeting expectations for voting by mail. Either they run a little below average (Virginia, Minnesota, and North Carolina) or awful (Michigan and Wisconsin). They are failing to get youth voters out there.
- Barnes wants to look at early voting for North Dakota and South Dakota. As they do not have any "Get out the votes!" (GOTV) efforts or competitive races that would put Republican incumbents in danger, he wants to see if Republicans are overperforming or underperforming where over 20% have voted
- South Dakota has a 19 point lead with Republicans while North Dakota has a 47 point lead, both states have high Norwegian populations which is indicative of how they will also vote in rural Minnesota and western Wisconsin. He speculates that polling errors is because the Norwegians are hard to reachs
- In Pennsylvania, Trump is winning Polish (53-40), Italians, French (60-40), German, Scot-Irish but losing non-Scot Irish Catholic to Biden by six points, English, and Dutch.
- Baris finds it odd that Trump is winning Chester County yet losing Bucks County by seven points, wants to reach out to Italians there
- Trump is doing great among economy and policing, but is getting killed in healthcare and coronavirus
- Baris and Barnes believe that Republicans totally screwed up by not preparing for Barrett's position on ObamaCare and pre-existing condition
- Confirms in the raw data that Trump is taking around 20% of the black votes in Pennsylvania
- Trump is winning among crossover votes compared to Biden who is only getting 8% of Republicans but needs to improve his margin among Indepedents as tied is not good enough
- Nearly half of the Pennsylvanian voters have no confidence in the integrity of this election and that's before weighting
- Most people are uncomfortable with Kamala Harris being president
- Fracking is overwhelmingly supported in Pennsylvania
- Leaners are going for Trump by three point
- Baris's 2016 poll did not show it going to Clinton+3 until October 24th (and might have been at Clinton+4)
- When Baris asked the question of if people were comfortable or uncomfortable with telling others about who they are voting for among family, friends, strangers, neighbors, co-workers, and pollsters, it is significantly worse than in Florida, a far more Republican-friendly state
- Barnes explains that Gallup did in-person polling from 1936 to 1968, switched to landline from 1968 to 2004, and that pollsters moved to online during the 2000s. Half of the people with a landline were polled, which creates random sampling. With the move to online polling, it gets rid of random sampling, making polling purely an art rather than half art-half science
- Most pollsters have failed to correct their mistakes from 2016 as they take the wrong lessons from why they got the election result wrong. Like for example, they aren't adjusting both education and region, just education
- Philadelphia was grossly overrepresented in the raw data at 18.8%. Weighting should take it down between 12-14%, making it an unusually low turnout
- Barnes believes that voter registration is a more accurate predictor of electoral outcome than polls. Voter registration trends have shown whenever or not a state trends Republican or Democratic. Ex. in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, Bush made gains in these states compared to 2004, they all dramatically shifted Democratic in 2008 when Obama had his landslide, shifted Republican when Obama had a closer victory, and all voted Trump when they shifted Republican again. All three states have trended Republican at an even faster rate than 2020.
- Baris plans to get 150 more samples
- Biden is three points ahead in Centre County
- Currently tied in Erie County, but that about 14% of the voters there are undecided (which neither Baris or Barnes believes)
- Nearly 2/3 of people believe there are "shy" voters who do not want to share they want to vote for Trump
- It's looking like Trump may flip Monroe County
- Trump is crushing Biden when it comes to working class voters 55-35

Looking forward to seeing the results tomorrow, I would assume that includes the voter registration numbers, right?

 

[dry roasted]

Mail-in voting is a mess. I wonder what percent will ultimately be lost or tossed.

 

[Puff]

Mail-in voting is a mess. I wonder what percent will ultimately be lost or tossed.

View attachment 1658126

I really want this to backfire on the dems. "40% of democrats torched their ballots for Corona virus"

 

[Someone Awful]

Looking forward to seeing the results tomorrow, I would assume that includes the voter registration numbers, right?

The voter registration number for Pennsylvania can be found here. Right now, it is D+717,386, nearly 200K lower than in 2016 when Trump took the state. I believe that number will go down further, but the more important thing I want to find out is, are the Republican gains slowing down or increasing? It did slow down in the last week so I wouldn't be surprised if it was doing that, but I highly doubt it will outright start reversing. But it's also worth noting that from October 3rd to October 10th in North Carolina, the final week had Republicans accelerate its gains.

Supposedly it's supposed to update with information today according to this guy that Baris talks to. Seems pretty knowledgeable but we should know how the number changed tomorrow.

 

[XYZpdq]

I really want this to backfire on the dems. "40% of democrats torched their ballots for Corona virus"

"This One Nifty Trick Can Make Your Mail-In Ballot Covid-Free!"

 

[Big Nasty]

Reminds me of the corona news video comment sections. Maybe I'm a schizo but the prevalence of comments about the comment section or random off topic on top lead me to think YouTube manipulates or allows other groups to manipulate the comment rating algorithm on certain kinds of videos. Anything that counters the select narrative gets buried. Lots of first name last name no content accounts

Do a lot of the accounts' first name + last name combos seem nonsensical?

 

[legalkochi]

WinRed, the Republican Party's answer to Democrats' ActBlue has reached $1 billion today. It only took 15 months to reach that mark since WinRed's launch in 2019 compared to ActBlue only reaching the $1 billion in 11 years.

I'm honestly surprised at how the Republican Party has modernized under Trump. He really is teaching them how to win.

 

[TrippinKahlua]

Seriously guys. Time to accept that Bidens finished.

Sure, a few weeks ago, I was worried. Trumps Covid diagnosis didnt help, but Biden has been doing the wrong things and saying the wrong gaffes.

This shit Trump uses on Hulu and other streaming services. I dunno how big tech let's pass the things i see.

I go from watching St Elsewhere on Hulu to get Sleepy Joe misreading the teleprompter and Donald Trump.

From Donald Trump back to Donald Westphal.

 

[make_it_so]

So here's my shot at a 270toWin prediction

I kept Trump's wins from 2016, plus added Minnesota (hypothetically due to citizens being pissed off by Burn Loot Murder), and for shits and giggles Nevada and Washington. Nevada because it's being rated as only leans dem and has been a focus for the Trump campaign, plus Trump has apparently been making gains with Hispanics. And Washington based on the possibility that it may elect a Republican governor in response the mayhem over the summer, and based on incumbent Jay Inslee's deranged performance during the recent debates there, where he proclaimed that riots weren't a problem in Seattle and proclaiming a large portion of the state's voters to be "Trumpians." Kind of call back to Hillary's "basket of deplorables."

I left New Hampshire in the blue due to the fact that the state has consistently been a tease for Republicans, always leaning but ultimately going Democrat. Likewise with New Mexico. In the past 20 years, both of these states have only gone Republican once, and neither in the same election.

 

[CrippleThreat]

The voter registration number for Pennsylvania can be found here. Right now, it is D+717,386, nearly 200K lower than in 2016 when Trump took the state. I believe that number will go down further, but the more important thing I want to find out is, are the Republican gains slowing down or increasing? It did slow down in the last week so I wouldn't be surprised if it was doing that, but I highly doubt it will outright start reversing. But it's also worth noting that from October 3rd to October 10th in North Carolina, the final week had Republicans accelerate its gains.

Supposedly it's supposed to update with information today according to this guy that Baris talks to. Seems pretty knowledgeable but we should know how the number changed tomorrow.

Honestly, yesterday was the first time I gave B&B a go, and I actually enjoyed the full session. Many thanks to you and @GuntPunt for the shilling.

So, are Baris and Barnes checking the numbers for PA only later in the morning? Or will the battleground states, and other states of interest be counted as well?

 

[Doctor of Autism]

WinRed, the Republican Party's answer to Democrats' ActBlue has reached $1 billion today. It only took 15 months to reach that mark since WinRed's launch in 2019 compared to ActBlue only reaching the $1 billion in 11 years.

I'm honestly surprised at how the Republican Party has modernized under Trump. He really is teaching them how to win.

Honestly Trump needs to keep it up post-election no matter what so the Republican party doesn't return to honorable losers and cuckservatives.

 

[legalkochi]

Honestly Trump needs to keep it up post-election no matter what so the Republican party doesn't return to honorable losers and cuckservatives.

He will. He probably has a big plan for the 2022 midterms (and hopefully we can win back a lot of those states, like Michigan for example. Would be great to see Gretchen Whitmer be defeated). And I do not foresee the party going back to being "honorable losers" and "cuckservatives". They're experiencing winning like never before. Why would they go back to the old ways? All those neocon "Republicans" joining the Democratic Party or endorsing Joe Biden won't ever be welcomed back in their old party, so, it really is a transformational shift of a party that cannot be undone.

So do not worry. Like Trump said, he is gonna teach them how to win.

 

[heyitsmike]

I guess since we're all doing electoral maps now, so here's mine. Barring any unforeseen events, Trump will pick up Nevada, Minnesota and New Hampshire but lose Nebraska's 2nd congressional district.

But if something crazy happens, like Jeb! entering the race, all bets are off.

 

[Doctor of Autism]

He will. He probably has a big plan for the 2022 midterms (and hopefully we can win back a lot of those states, like Michigan for example. Would be great to see Gretchen Whitmer be defeated). And I do not foresee the party going back to being "honorable losers" and "cuckservatives". They're experiencing winning like never before. Why would they go back to the old ways? All those neocon "Republicans" joining the Democratic Party or endorsing Joe Biden won't ever be welcomed back in their old party, so, it really is a transformational shift of a party that cannot be undone.

So do not worry. Like Trump said, he is gonna teach them how to win.

Speaking of winning, I honestly think if Biden loses then the Democrats have more to lose than Trump has to gain. Trump gaining a second term would be great but he will still deal with the same enemies as before and has to keep up with the 2022 Midterms to get things done.

The Democrats however would be very split apart and it doesn't help their leaders are getting too old to even lead things anymore (Pelosi is in her 80s) and Obama likely is going to spend the rest of his life enjoying the luxuries of the money he has rather than help the DNC. So it's going to be more divided between the Bernie fans and the Establishment Democrats along with the Neocons like never before.

EDIT: Also I wonder how Kanye West would affect the vote?

 

[Pickle Dick]

Really liking the electoral map memes being posted here lately, perhaps I should join in?