2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Will the the thread of prophecy be severed?
 
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StarkRavingMad said:
Yeah, I'm calling bullshit on these stories, lol.

All these women are doing are regurgitating DNC talking points. "I felt I did a disservice to women" and "I voted for him because I loved The Apprentice!" Okay, I get it: You think that women who voted for Trump are gender betrayers or that they're stupid. Got it. Thanks, CNN.

And I still don't understand how Fentanyl Floyd is in any way connected to Donald Trump. lol. Amazing. Based on how these women were talking, Trump apparently was the one who knelt on Floyd's neck.
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Out of millions of people, it's not that hard to find some rube somewhere in the country who voted for Trump and now "regrets" it because he didn't meet their idiosyncratic expectations, or because the social pressure to hate orange man is really intense now, or whatever. It's all narrative-shaping bullshit, whether it's scripted or not.
 
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Well since we're all leaving political maps here, I guess I gotta give mine, and it's been pretty hard to make one, it was getting realnclose, but I'm not gonna lie, after the Libertarians decided to get Jeb for president and Bernie for VP, I have to-

Pickle Dick said:
Really liking the electoral map memes being posted here lately, perhaps I should join in?

View attachment 1658320
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DID I GET COUGARED BY A FUCKING SHITPOST HERE?! Daym this website. Only place on the net that manages to consistently out-autist my ass!

Ok, ok. If we already got a Jeb Landslide map I guess I'll have to get more serious. Sadly aftee getting all my predictions together it seems Trump will lose, but it will be a close fight, if he gets texas he might just turn it around.

Screenshot_20201013-140910_Firefox.jpg


Hehehehehehehehehehehe...
 
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ISDwarnedus said:
Out of millions of people, it's not that hard to find some rube somewhere in the country who voted for Trump and now "regrets" it because he didn't meet their idiosyncratic expectations, or because the social pressure to hate orange man is really intense now, or whatever. It's all narrative-shaping bullshit, whether it's scripted or not.
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Finding one isn't hard. Featuring them is the art of bullshit.

This was a woman interviewing women in middle class homes, in a faux social setting. They intercut it with the reporter in casual clothes driving to another house. They didn't bring in the interviewees to a local studio, they wanted to create an empathetic scene. "I can identify myself with those women: sitting on my porch talking, commuting to work, etc."

They are trying to craft a parasocial narrative that resonates with women: "look, these women have included me in their conversation, and this is what they think!" They know women are highly susceptible to social pressure. This isn't a segment intended to inform, it's a segment intended to create the illusion of widespread social consensus, which pressures other women into feeling they need to go along with the group.

The opening setup was a flyover of stereotypical suburbs and the narration that "50% of white women in PA voted for Trump". That's a blatant signal of what they're worried about. The side that accuses Trump of endless dog whistles to nefarious groups is also dog-whistling to the class whose likes to think they are thoughtful and informed: "you recognize this statistic we've been complaining about for 4 years? Do you recognize yourself in this statistic? Now it's time to do something about it!"

It really says something that the blowhard billionaire exudes more authenticity than a "woman on the streets" interviewer trying to connect with voters.
 
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Harvey Danger said:
Finding one isn't hard. Featuring them is the art of bullshit.

This was a woman interviewing women in middle class homes, in a faux social setting. They intercut it with the reporter in casual clothes driving to another house. They didn't bring in the interviewees to a local studio, they wanted to create an empathetic scene. "I can identify myself with those women: sitting on my porch talking, commuting to work, etc."

They are trying to craft a parasocial narrative that resonates with women: "look, these women have included me in their conversation, and this is what they think!" They know women are highly susceptible to social pressure. This isn't a segment intended to inform, it's a segment intended to create the illusion of widespread social consensus, which pressures other women into feeling they need to go along with the group.

The opening setup was a flyover of stereotypical suburbs and the narration that "50% of white women in PA voted for Trump". That's a blatant signal of what they're worried about. The side that accuses Trump of endless dog whistles to nefarious groups is also dog-whistling to the class whose likes to think they are thoughtful and informed: "you recognize this statistic we've been complaining about for 4 years? Do you recognize yourself in this statistic? Now it's time to do something about it!"

It really says something that the blowhard billionaire exudes more authenticity than a "woman on the streets" interviewer trying to connect with voters.
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Yeah, trying to shame white women into voting for Hillary worked out really well. I'm sure a Biden/Harris ticket will really win them over this time!
 
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Since I guess we're posting predictions, now it's time to post my 4; or repost:

Panthera Rosea said:
Alright, here's my election predictions:

View attachment 1630427

View attachment 1630431

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I think this is a fair analysis looking through voter trends and primary turnout as to what might occur, based purely on the research I've done for the past 4 hours or so. Out of them all, I think the second scenario is the most likely course of action.
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Tathagata said:
So Biden's coming to my neck of the woods today at 2:30, but it's impossible to find out where he'll be. I want to go and protest/document what it's really like, but it's literally impossible as of T-5 hours to discover where he's going to show up. This is insane. How is this guy an actual candidate?
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Yes, similar situation when he went to Las Vegas I believe. I remember a Tweet video from some local reporter who was outside of the location where Biden held an event and she said it was very confusing because it was a big event but essentially nobody was showing up, absolute bonkers. It's like they don't want people to know because they're afraid more Trump supporters will show up than Biden supporters.

Seriously, go to the Biden website right now and you need to scroll all the way to the bottom of the site and in the footer there is a link to "Events": https://bidenpresident.com/

Then you will land on this page: https://bidenpresident.com/Event with some terrible iframe with the events, which is hard to navigate. I don't even know how it would look like on a mobile device. Actual what the fuck, I can't even find the event for today you mentioned.

How the hell do you even support this guy when you want to? Nothing on the Twitter also: https://tw.tinf.io/JoeBiden/with_replies

So I found another site, this one: https://joebiden.com. Scrolling through that you get "Find an event" which goes directly to that iframed website on the campaign site: https://www.mobilize.us/2020victory/ so that should be it.

What a fucking mess.

Compare that to the Trump events page: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events/

It has all the stuff you want:
  • Location & time
  • Filter by Pence of Trump
  • Type of event
  • Bunch of other filters based on target audience
  • Search by State or Zip code
I'm actually really curious what the Biden virtual events consist of and how many people "attend" them.
 
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Tathagata said:
So Biden's coming to my neck of the woods today at 2:30, but it's impossible to find out where he'll be. I want to go and protest/document what it's really like, but it's literally impossible as of T-5 hours to discover where he's going to show up. This is insane. How is this guy an actual candidate?
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This is a bit of an autismal thought but Dems dis-proportionally voting early through mail does incentivize blocking later or election day voting.

I'm expecting at least attempts, successful or not, at shutting down voting locations from antifa/blm, maybe the occasional complicit mayor in Portland-tier areas.
 
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Early voting in my state starts tomorrow. I saw multiple pickups flying big Trump flags around town, so maybe we're not as screwed as I continue to think we are.

I still can't shake this idea that Biden will win due to the sheer gullibility of swing voters and/or a touch of fraud in key places. The polls don't have to be exactly right on the numbers; Biden can win by a razor-thin margin, and the Cathedral will gloat about how they were right about Drumpf all along.
 
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Big takeaways from Baris today:
  • He has Biden up 2 in PA with a 3.1% MoE. (Statistically tied)
  • Trafalgar had a similar result posted today
  • Some of his data he was refuting as he saw it. He saw that Trump and Biden were tied with Italian support. He doubts that because the Italian groupings typically vote more conservative.
  • He has Trump higher in PA than he had at the same time in 2016. Baris had Trump within 3 points of Clinton by October 24.
  • He is still urging that is extremely hard to get Trump's base
  • Trump is carrying the Union vote
  • More voters are uncomfortable to reveal voting intentions than FL
  • Says that Trump hit his floor in the state due to the Coof diagnosis. Its a sturdy floor
  • Good thing he is going there tonight to despel the rumors
  • Says it is still competitive
  • Still thinks its the best shot Trump has to victory
 
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Gezkill said:
Yeah, the mormon vote would have helped him but he burned that bridge.
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A thought on the mormon vote:

Utah is as good a proxy as any for how Mormons will vote in other states, and Trump is actually polling better currently in Utah than his final vote share in 2016.

The RCP average for Trump on 11/3/2016 was 37.4%, and he took the state with 45.9%. Today his average is 50%.

(As a side note, if ever you needed more evidence of the piss-poor state of modern polling, I saw that aggregate polls for every national election in the past 10 years underpredicted Republican performance to the tune of 6-10%, in fucking Utah).

2016 was a truly strange anomaly in Utah because people tend to forget that third party spoiler Evan McMullin (who also happened to be as Mormon as lime jello) got 21% of the fucking vote compared to Hilary’s 27%. And even then Trump saw a last minute break of nearly double digit percentage points compared to his polling average.

If there is such a thing as a shy Trump voter at all, then Mormons would be at the top of that list, and the numbers show it. They may kvetch in public about a meany president that drops the f-bomb, but like hell are they going to actually pull the lever for an alternative that is neck-deep in pro-choice and anti-gun bullshit. The Barrett nomination will also cover a multitude of sins I expect, especially with those two issues.

I expect Trump to carry Utah by about ten points more than in 2016, and large Mormon populations in Arizona to largely follow suit, if not break even at worst. Idaho is so laughably in the bag for Trump that I can’t even find polling for it. Utah only shows up in polling due to the powers that be wanting to keep a their fingers on the political pulse of both the church as a whole and the cancer that is the rogue progressive opposition in Salt Lake.

In short, any losses he had to Biden in the more suburban Mormons he will more than make up for with the ones who he lost to McMullin in 2016. The only thing that could change this is Romney endorsing Biden, which is admittedly possible, but it’d be a hard fucking sell for him to point out what exactly Trump has done that is worse than late term abortions and progressive insanity. The fact that Romney was dragged back in line for the Barrett confirmation means it’s unlikely he’ll break ranks for the general. At worse he doesn’t endorse anyone, but that won’t move the needle, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t want to call attention to the fact that his own business interests just so happen to overlap with the ones that have caused the massive scandal around Hunter Biden.
 
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Frisbee Disco Tits said:
Seriously, go to the Biden website right now and you need to scroll all the way to the bottom of the site and in the footer there is a link to "Events": https://bidenpresident.com/

Then you will land on this page: https://bidenpresident.com/Event with some terrible iframe with the events, which is hard to navigate. I don't even know how it would look like on a mobile device. Actual what the fuck, I can't even find the event for today you mentioned.

How the hell do you even support this guy when you want to? Nothing on the Twitter also: https://tw.tinf.io/JoeBiden/with_replies

So I found another site, this one: https://joebiden.com. Scrolling through that you get "Find an event" which goes directly to that iframed website on the campaign site: https://www.mobilize.us/2020victory/ so that should be it.
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"Aww, he thinks I gave him a real phone instead of a toddler toy with voice clips! That's adorable."

Screenshot 2020-10-13 at 1.04.52 PM.png


"Kamala! I just talked to a really happy voter! I'm winning them over, Kamala!"
"Of course you are, Joe. Of course you are."
 
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Tour of Italy said:
A thought on the mormon vote:

Utah is as good a proxy as any for how Mormons will vote in other states, and Trump is actually polling better currently in Utah than his final vote share in 2016.

The RCP average for Trump on 11/3/2016 was 37.4%, and he took the state with 45.9%. Today his average is 50%.

(As a side note, if ever you needed more evidence of the piss-poor state of modern polling, I saw that aggregate polls for every national election in the past 10 years underpredicted Republican performance to the tune of 6-10%, in fucking Utah).

2016 was a truly strange anomaly in Utah because people tend to forget that third party spoiler Evan McMullin (who also happened to be as Mormon as lime jello) got 21% of the fucking vote compared to Hilary’s 27%. And even then Trump saw a last minute break of nearly double digit percentage points compared to his polling average.

If there is such a thing as a shy Trump voter at all, then Mormons would be at the top of that list, and the numbers show it. They may kvetch in public about a meany president that drops the f-bomb, but like hell are they going to actually pull the lever for an alternative that is neck-deep in pro-choice and anti-gun bullshit. The Barrett nomination will also cover a multitude of sins I expect, especially with those two issues.

I expect Trump to carry Utah by about ten points more than in 2016, and large Mormon populations in Arizona to largely follow suit, if not break even at worst. Idaho is so laughably in the bag for Trump that I can’t even find polling for it. Utah only shows up in polling due to the powers that be wanting to keep a their fingers on the political pulse of both the church as a whole and the cancer that is the rogue progressive opposition in Salt Lake.

In short, any losses he had to Biden in the more suburban Mormons he will more than make up for with the ones who he lost to McMullin in 2016. The only thing that could change this is Romney endorsing Biden, which is admittedly possible, but it’d be a hard fucking sell for him to point out what exactly Trump has done that is worse than late term abortions and progressive insanity. The fact that Romney was dragged back in line for the Barrett confirmation means it’s unlikely he’ll break ranks for the general. At worse he doesn’t endorse anyone, but that won’t move the needle, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t want to call attention to the fact that his own business interests just so happen to overlap with the ones that have caused the massive scandal around Hunter Biden.
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They did a poll last week on Trump and its pretty much 50% Trump and 40% Biden.

In all honestly this election year is going to be fucking weird.

www.sltrib.com

Utah poll has Trump up 10, and a big majority don’t see him as a person of faith

President Donald Trump has a 10-point lead over Joe Biden in Utah with less than a month to go before the presidential election.
www.sltrib.com www.sltrib.com
 
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Tathagata said:
So Biden's coming to my neck of the woods today at 2:30, but it's impossible to find out where he'll be. I want to go and protest/document what it's really like, but it's literally impossible as of T-5 hours to discover where he's going to show up. This is insane. How is this guy an actual candidate?
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I think the campaign is aware that...
  • They cannot get the same crowd size as Trump
  • Trumpers will be there waving MAGA flags if they can
  • The "rallies" are pretty pathetic and uneventful
  • They don't need big rallies to win
So they don't seem to focus on the rallies, using corona as a justification for having a tight leash on Joe. I think they're right, as well, that their best chance is to keep Joe locked away and just fearmonger about the loss of healthcare during a pandemic, lack of gibs, etc etc. The usual democrat talking points.
 
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