2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[HTTP Error 404]

I really think getting over the virus made him stronger, and care even less about his critics than before.

I wager internal polling says that him getting COVID and getting over it has completely taken it off the table as far as DNC talking points go.

Which means there isn't anything left.

 

[Malodorous Merkin]

Biden is doing a Town Hall on Thursday on ABC. Trump then got NBC to do a Town Hall with him competing with Biden’s.

I can just imagine how Team Joe is going to try and explain away the ratings thrashing Trump's hullabalooza is going to inflict upon Joe's snoozefest.

They're probably going to try and factor in the millions of people tuned in to Joe's town hall on ham radios, baby monitors, and Ring doorbell cameras.

 

[heyitsmike]

Biden is doing a Town Hall on Thursday on ABC. Trump then got NBC to do a Town Hall with him competing with Biden’s.

I can just imagine how Team Joe is going to try and explain away the ratings thrashing Trump's hullabalooza is going to inflict upon Joe's snoozefest.

They're probably going to try and factor in the millions of people tuned in to Joe's town hall on ham radios, baby monitors, and Ring doorbell cameras.

From the perspective of NBC, dueling town halls is a definite winner because you get to have blowout ratings while simultaneously hurting one of your rivals.

But from the perspective of the Trump campaign, I don't like it because the more people see Biden, the better for Trump.

By all means, do a town hall. But don't help Biden by making sure no one sees his.

 

[2021Murder]

Today Baris did the in-depth analysis of the crowdfunded PA poll, he has Biden +2.4%. But Trump has some very strong indicators in his favor. Baris notes that Biden is underperforming where Hillary was at the same time, and PA broke extremely late for Trump in 2016, within the last 1-2 weeks of the race.

If FL is secure then PA becomes the linchpin of the race. Every other path for Trump depends on a flip, like MN or NH or NV, plus a shaky-looking MI hold. I like what Trump's doing with the schedule; after the Wu Flu diagnosis he can't afford to try and run up the numbers. He needs to fight for PA and MI, go for the MN flip, and maybe invest a day in NH trying for a payoff there.

Biden is fighting for PA heavily as well. These FL visits seem like tokens, there's probably behind-the-scenes organizing going on trying to get ballot shenanigans going in Broward again.

But neither side seems to be taking MI too seriously. Trump has a visit coming up, but he isn't hitting it hard, and Biden's ground game was reported as being invisible there. So I'll extend the Biden shenanigans theory to MI as well; he's counting on the governor to deliver the state by hook or by outright crook. Maybe Trump assumes it's too much of an uphill battle to overcome the margin of fraud, so he isn't spending the most resources there. But he can win FL over that margin, so he's solidifying it.

the poll we all determined wasn't jewed still has Biden up almost 3%. but sure trump has this in the bag

 

[EmuWarsVeteran]

Biden using rap battles to get more people to vote:
View attachment 1660664

More like "How do you do, fellow niggers?"

Can we not nuke both our parties and start over?

Libertarian Jeb 2024! Jokes aside. I keep saying it, murica needs a better vote counting system! STV, MMD, I don't fucking care. Just stop this FPTP bipartidistic bullshit!

From the perspective of NBC, dueling town halls is a definite winner because you get to have blowout ratings while simultaneously hurting one of your rivals.

But from the perspective of the Trump campaign, I don't like it because the more people see Biden, the better for Trump.

By all means, do a town hall. But don't help Biden by making sure no one sees his.

He'll get memed anyway. What is he gonna be running for next? VP? Gobernor of Texas? I'm hoping it's the House of Representatives!

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

the poll we all determined wasn't jewed still has Biden up almost 3%. but sure trump has this in the bag

It's a statistical tie and Trump was in the exact same position two weeks later in 2016. That's pretty okay for Trump. Not great, but not doom, either.

 

[Getting tard comed]

I posted this in the Biden news thread but it probably best belongs here.

News people are reporting this prediction model as a negative for Trump. https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/keys-to-the-white-house/

Spoiler: The 13 Keys

Key	Topic	Threshold condition
1	Party Mandate	After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats inthe U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previousmidterm elections.
2	Contest	There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3	Incumbency	The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4	Third party	There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5	Short-term economy	The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6	Long-term economy	Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7	Policy change	The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8	Social unrest	There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9	Scandal	The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10	Foreign/military failure	The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11	Foreign/military success	The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12	Incumbent charisma	The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13	Challenger charisma	The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Incumbant president needs 8/13 of these to be true for him to win according to the model. The creator of the model gave him 7/13. I give Trump 11/13, I think a more critical non TDS perspective gives Trump at minimum a 9/13. What do you all think?

 

[GuntPunt]

No real changes in voter registration trends since stimulus-geddon.

Not suprising because Pelosi is the dumbest, most out of touch politician ever.

Edit:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[Getting tard comed]

No real changes in voter registration trends since stimulus-geddon.
View attachment 1661335
Not suprising because Pelosi is the dumbest, most out of touch politician ever.
View attachment 1661357

GOP is slaughtering in voter registration and yet polls believe theres 21 million new voters breaking 2:1 for Biden? How does anyone take these polls seriously?

 

[heyitsmike]

The left will believe she is a klanswoman by proxy, and the right will believe she did nothing wrong. So the center, being fed that she would end Roe v Wade on loop and at the highest volume is just supposed to tune it out?

Still worried?

And this is pre hearings, mind you.

On a related note, this absolutely confirms that McConnell made the right decision by not even giving Merrick Garland a hearing or vote.

 

[Shroom King]

I dunno about y'all, but I was greatly underwhelmed by the examples he gave of the Democrats rhetoric, especially in comparison with the ones he gave from Trump.

He must have been too busy reading the Book of Mormon the past 100+ days to notice Democrats aiding and abetting the burning down and looting of cities all across America.

 

[Harvey Danger]

From the perspective of NBC, dueling town halls is a definite winner because you get to have blowout ratings while simultaneously hurting one of your rivals.

But from the perspective of the Trump campaign, I don't like it because the more people see Biden, the better for Trump.

By all means, do a town hall. But don't help Biden by making sure no one sees his.

I don't know, last time Biden did a town hall, he wasn't good, and nobody watched it. Do you remember anything from it?

I think this is clever; Trump is turning an easily ignored Biden event into an outright competition. That drives interest in seeing who "wins". Everyone keeps saying Biden looks weak, but during his carefully staged events, he actually holds up a bit. He looks weak in comparison to other people, and any scenario where a direct comparison can be made benefits Trump.

 

[CrippleThreat]

I don't know, last time Biden did a town hall, he wasn't good, and nobody watched it. Do you remember anything from it?

Only thing I remember is the scandal that Biden's town hall was full of faux "undecideds" to sway undecideds to Biden.

I think this is clever; Trump is turning an easily ignored Biden event into an outright competition. That drives interest in seeing who "wins". Everyone keeps saying Biden looks weak, but during his carefully staged events, he actually holds up a bit. He looks weak in comparison to other people, and any scenario where a direct comparison can be made benefits Trump.

It works as a "separate" debate; the viewers at home get to see Trump say his stuff while he looks decent, and others might get to see Biden lose himself at some points. And this is all with the benefit of not seeing these old guys scream at each other like they did on the debate stage.

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

I posted this in the Biden news thread but it probably best belongs here.

I’d give it an 8 personally but it’s a bit subjective in some areas.

 

[Hungry Hungry Bitch]

And this is pre hearings, mind you.

On a related note, this absolutely confirms that McConnell made the right decision by not even giving Merrick Garland a hearing or vote.

I would bet a lot more Democrats would be in favor to confirm after the hearings. She's been absolutely delightful to listen to, such a smart person and the amount of knowledge she has on hand is impressive.

 

[Someone Awful]

If he loses MI and PA, he is still at 270. The problem is with faithless electors. However, since Trump has consolidated the Republican base and the fact that they are probably accounting for a close election, they are going to vet the electors super thoroughly. Would still perfer more incase of fuckery.

I don't think thats entirely true. If you give up on a state, you stop campaigning there. You can make the arguement that he cut funding for MI ads, but he redirecting it to his 260 firewall and PA for a safer win. Pence, Trump, and the family are still in Michigan and Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent, MN.

I am also looking at Wisconsin's early vote, and holy shit, the WOW counties are pissed about the riots. They have a 77% Republican lead in Waukesha's early vote. BLM should not have fucked around in a Republican stronghold. This is evidence that Trump has consolidated the Walker coalition into his WWC one, which will deliver him the state easier since NeverTrumpers are no longer a sizable portion of the Republican party.

Source on how well Waukesha County is doing? Trump won the county by 26.7%. A Republican 77% lead would be massive and Wisconsin does not register party preference.

 

[GuntPunt]

Source on how well Waukesha County is doing? Trump won the county by 26.7%. A Republican 77% lead would be massive and Wisconsin does not register party preference.

Targetsmart returns. I should preference that I misremembered and it was 77% Republican, not R+77. Still, R+70 is pretty ok.

I know about "inferred voters" for them, but they use voting records for estimation of the returns.

 

[CrippleThreat]

I would bet a lot more Democrats would be in favor to confirm after the hearings. She's been absolutely delightful to listen to, such a smart person and the amount of knowledge she has on hand is impressive.

She's seems like a prodigy, but a lot of judges (they choose for SCOTUS, that is) are very intelligent. I wish more like her were the senators we have to listen to. I swear I can't listen to those creatures. Ted Cruz is one of the few exceptions I heard, and I completely understand why he refuse the nomination; the Republicans will lose a strong player if he gets in.

It sucks that ACB has to be confirmed during such a turbulent time, such that the Dems can harp on shitty healthcare and "Please panic," but she is good for the job.

 

[2021Murder]

She's seems like a prodigy, but a lot of judges (they choose for SCOTUS, that is) are very intelligent. I wish more like her were the senators we have to listen to. I swear I can't listen to those creatures. Ted Cruz is one of the few exceptions I heard, and I completely understand why he refuse the nomination; the Republicans will lose a strong player if he gets in.

It sucks that ACB has to be confirmed during such a turbulent time, such that the Dems can harp on shitty healthcare and "Please panic," but she is good for the job.

honestly i hope Ted gets to be on the court one day. all signs point to texas only seeming in play around 2030. and by then either the GOP will be powerless or will have let trump get a 4th term in office. but a Justice Cruz would be nice. also we're less than 3 weeks from elections. either vote on the cunt or fuck over the 1/3rd of senate currently in desperate need of re-election.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

Disappointed my state doesn't have early voting.

The past couple years I've not paid as much attention to politics as I did in 2017 and 2016 for mental health purposes but when I saw a footage of current Ted Cruz recently I gotta say it was a bit of a shock. He looks like a wise elder character about to fight some Orcs on the back of a unicorn or something.