2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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GuntPunt said:
I might just doom away now, because aparently Oregon and Washington have fucked up online voter fraud. Maybe. My moneys on it being a LARP.
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In this potentially dark time, let me bring you: Stretchen Gretchen.
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It's probably a LARP given the whole "4chan hacked the voting machine" reeks of the same 2007 era /b/ "HACKERS ON STEROIDS" memes where Anonymous was using their hacking skills to spoil the last Harry Potter book and make random minivans explode.

Seriously, that headline reminds me of this infamous Fox News video...

 
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It's HK-47 said:
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I know that your first map is kind of a shitposty joke but you literally made one of Nate Silver's current election maps for 2020, just off by 1 electoral vote. He's giving Biden an even bigger prediction in this map than he gave Hillary in 2016. Excuse me for a bit, I need to go laugh hysterically for awhile because Nate Silver thinks he knows things.

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There's some early hints that bluefugees are starting to assimilate and vote red in AZ (2020) and TX (in 2018 ).

Could turn out to be some anomaly, and the AZ poll isn't finished, but yea.

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GuntPunt said:
I might just doom away now, because aparently Oregon and Washington have fucked up online voter fraud. Maybe. My moneys on it being a LARP.
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Checked /pol/, some people are claiming to be running scripts now to flip votes and change D vote addresses to invalidate them, some are saying it's debunked, some are saying the flipping doesnt actually stick but you can cancel votes, and is running a script trying to do that, so who the fuck knows, last 2 hunter Biden things to come from the chans turned out to be fake, a red Oregon landslide would be hilarious though.
 
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GuntPunt said:
James was always going to outperform Trump. He doesn't have such an adverse stigma to him.

I really disagree with your friend's sentiment that the Mueller probe was only used to cover up dirt. First, if they had any, they would've used it in the probe to directly impeach him. Secondly, the way Mueller and co were destroying cellphones and laptops tell me they want to be no where near the probe anymore or they can be implicated in conspiracy of overthrowing the president or some other charge. That probe took 3 years and found jack shit.

Furthermore, these October surprises like the taxes, the WWI story, the other rape accusation, and so on all did fuck all. They need Trump, in his own words, say that his supporters are the biggest fucking idiots on the planet to support him to make that breakthrough into the perception they want to expose him as a fraud. This is why Biden keeps screaming VERY FINE PEOPLE, because its the closest thing they have to anything even though its a lie.

The big smoking gun "October surprise" they had was the NYT Taxes story. That's why it was longer than War and Peace with all those cute little golden Trump Monopoly pieces. No one gave a shit 2 days later. They have nothing.

Meanwhile...
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Yeah, even if Trump loses Michigan, I believe he has a good shot of winning the Senate seat. If Republicans manage to win two seats, they can afford to lose four and still maintain control of the Senate.

Honestly, I do agree with you. If Mueller and co were destroying cellphones and laptops where the Mueller lie took place, then all additional dirt they might have on Trump go with it. The DNC's attempt to kill Trump's re-election campaign with a scandal fell flat on their face and he's still competitive. Giuliani's "October Surprise" might have more impact on this election although I am not holding my breathe on it significantly affecting outcome given how close it is to Election Day and how many people have now voted (twenty-two million).
GuntPunt said:
Trump has a 260 firewall in my eyes. Ohio and Iowa are not in play by both Trump and Biden ignoring the states. In North Carolina, Dems are underperforming in VBM. Florida is off the table, due to party registrations, Cuban / Nicaraguan / Venezuelan team up to elect Trump, and INSANE enthusiasm that I have never seen in my life time. Arizona is not for grabs because Baris is polling it and since Maricopa has a 5+ point lead for Trump and is 60% of the vote, the state is his.

This means the election comes down to 7 states: NM, NV, NH, MI, PA, WI, or MN.
If he wins 1 Rust Belt state, he wins.
If he wins NV, and either NH or NM, he wins. (Unlikely, I know you all are prepping those rainbows.)

I am only putting NV and NM on the list of states because Trump is still campaigning there, specifically in NV. NM is weird because of Johnson being a 9 point spoiler. Tall order but he could flip it. I would rather him be in PA and MN.

NH? Very slim Clinton win in 16 plus bringing back the Bush coalition into his own may deliver him the state. We shall see. Still, go to PA and MN, Trump.

I want him in the Rust Belt for tactical purposes, but if his polls show him with multiple paths, more power to him.

Keep in mind, Biden has to win almost ALL of these states to win the Presidency because of his low 207 firewall. Which sounds like the harder path to victory?
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Speaking of Arizona, Baris did give us another bits of info on Twitter.

In Arizona's, Trump's best group are the "first generation" (archive). Based on the context, I am assuming that this is referring to people who moved from another state to Arizona who are preferring Trump over Biden. I recall seeing an article saying that most people who leave California are conservative-leaning, so this does not surprise me. If this holds, that could one thing explaining why Arizona might trend right in Trump's favor this year. That said, I want to see if Baris's prediction holds before considering it a lock myself. A 5-7% lead in Arizona is not within the margin of error, 1-3% is.

As for Florida, I wouldn't call it a lock yet. 1.6% is within the margin of error and if Biden gets a much more enthusiastic turnout than expected, he could make a surprise grab. Besides, Florida has been a swing states for nearly three decades even if it has an Republican lean. If Baris's prediction about Trump leading in Arizona by 5-7% holds out, then Florida is still polling to the left of Arizona. Don't get me wrong, I'm very optimistic about Trump keeping the state because of all that he has going for him (closing the registration gap to near equal to Democrats, Cubans and Venezuelans being solid voting blocks, women being more conservative, voting fraud effort will be seriously hampered by a Republican government and ballots being due on Election Day), but there's a reason why he did multiple rallies in Florida last week. He needs to make extra, extra sure he has Florida and Arizona so that he can focus on the Rust Belt states (especially Pennsylvania, the state with the most favorable trends towards him).

I'd say Trump right now has 218 electoral votes locked up (including Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas). If Baris's poll shows him increasing his margin from 2016, then I'll say Arizona is locked up and he has 229 electoral votes. But Florida will tell the story of if Trump is still competitive after Election Day. If he doesn't get the state, I don't see him getting any of the competitive Rust Belt states you mentioned. If he gets Florida, we have to see if Trump carries one or two of Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, or Wisconsin. If not, Pennsylvania will be as I predicted, the bellwether state.

Regarding New Mexico, we need to see the Hispanics and "Others" breakdown in Baris's poll before we can deduce whenever or not New Mexico is in play. Also Trump hasn't made any indications that he will visit the state. If he doesn't, New Mexico is not in play even if it does trend right. The only way he can win without Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota is if he keeps every other state, and adds Nevada and New Hampshire, and getting one is already a reach. Even if he is doing better with Hispanics and Native Americans than we think, New Mexico is still at best an outside shot.

I'd say Biden's firewall right now is 210. I've given up on Virginia being a potential flip and I doubt New Mexico slightly trending Republican and Johnson not running for election will give Trump the state.
 
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Exterminatus said:
Most are likely using the last Georgia governors race in 2018, Stacey Abrams came damn close to winning the state and she's barely a notch above being legally and medically retarded, she lost by about 55,000 votes.

In 2016 Trump won Georgia by 5.1% which is about 2% lower than Romney's 2012 win in the state but he won by a larger margin than Brian Kemp did against Abrams. Clinton did just slightly worse in the state than Obama did in 2012 by about .55%

Basically the metro areas in Georgia have been growing by large margins and they voted much more heavily in 2016 then again in 2018 where they almost gave Abrams the state and Clinton managed to flip three counties blue for the first time since 1976, the state seems to be trending closer to becoming a battleground state as opposed to a sure fire win for Republicans we'll be able to take another look after this election though because if Trump pumps his numbers up that might quell the big city Dems in Atlanta for a little while.
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Personally I think Trump will do well in Georgia. 2018 was the "Blue Wave" where Democrats were able to get the vote out. Trump himself wasn't on the ballot and he was also dealing with his low point in Public Relations with the Mueller investigations.

Mueller & Russia are things of the past. Yes people are scared of Covid but as Mike Pence articulatedly pointed out Biden's Covid measures simply amount to more stupid masks. All that's left is race relations, and I simply refuse to believe your suburb voters want to reward BLM for its bullshit.

The concept that people will vote Biden just to hopefully pacify BLM is literally an argument that BLM riots are terrorism. And Americans overwhelmingly hate terrorists.
 
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Based on what we are seeing right now, if it's at all accurate, then it looks like Trump is going to win AZ, OH, FL, and GA, and it's looking very good for him in the Rust Belt at the moment.

The battleground state where he is most likely to lose is PA at the moment. In the event where that happens, then Trump needs to win any 2 of the 3 Rust Belt states ... Unless he pulls a huge upset in NV and flips it red; in that surprise scenario, then Trump will only need one of the Rust Belt states to hit 270.

The early numbers we are seeing in AZ right now are very encouraging. It certainly is looking like the refugees from California are not bringing their moronic politics with them.
 
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GuntPunt said:
The big smoking gun "October surprise" they had was the NYT Taxes story. That's why it was longer than War and Peace with all those cute little golden Trump Monopoly pieces. No one gave a shit 2 days later. They have nothing.
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I'm actually going to be really disappointed in the Democrats if the best October surprise they could muster is "rich man uses tax loopholes".

Then again, someone else said it, Dems have been sperging for so long about Trump that nothing short of Trump personally killing like 10 people is going to register as anything more than just more "Orange Man Bad" noise now.
 
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Iwasamwillbe said:
Where the fuck did this asinine sthuper-sthpreader event meme come from?
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It really can't be understated just how much the left opposes any grouping of people outside of BLM events.

I've had to argue with people because I said Fauci could go fuck himself if he's telling families to not get together for Thanksgiving and they started reeeing that "People need to make sacrifices to save lives!"
 
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MrJokerRager said:
Ice Cube found out the hard way that niggers really love gibs. The man tries to get help for his community, and is shit on by white leftists as expected and apparently niggers in his community. I seriously believe that Joe Biden could call them sheboons and niggers and still get their vote with enthusiasm.
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Think about everything that BLM says that they are fighting against and then realize that Kamala has done all of it.
 
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Shroom King said:
Yes, I don't get the mental gymnastics here.

"Every man's home is his castle! Your rights end where my private property begins! Cold dead hands, etc."

"Oh, no passport? No papers? COME RIGHT IN AND SHIT UP MY COUNTRY!"
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Yup, you can be libertarian in regard to your in-group/ nation whatever and want to be isolationist from the rest of the world with no cognitive dissonance imo.

The idea that if you're libertarian you have to be pro immigration is a gayop
 
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brahmarakshasasolempi said:
Yup, you can be libertarian in regard to your in-group/ nation whatever and want to be isolationist from the rest of the world with no cognitive dissonance imo.

The idea that if you're libertarian you have to be pro immigration is a gayop
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Most families are very socialist in their economic structure: can't have the kids working for their room and board until they're almost old enough to leave home. That doesn't mean that I want to share my food and home with strangers. Similar concept.
 
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