2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Looking at the 2008 Democrat Primary voter turnout, I can now see why people like Nate Plastic keep going on and on about how Biden will have 2008 level turnout even if I heavily disagree.
What that number fails to take into account is that 2008 had competitive primaries on both sides.

How many people took a Dem ballot this year because their state had open primaries? Also how many less caucuses are there now compared to 2008? And how much has the population grown in 12 years?
 
Look at the 2020 Democrat Primary voter turnout, its on the same level but the difference is that Obama rigged it so almost everyone dropped out to fuck Bernie.
What that number fails to take into account is that 2008 had competitive primaries on both sides.

How many people took a Dem ballot this year because their state had open primaries? Also how many less caucuses are there now compared to 2008? And how much has the population grown in 12 years?
Exactly, the whole "BIDEN WILL HAVE OBAMA TURNOUT" mantra is based solely on the total Dem primary voter turnout.
 
If you can, can you compare NH primary vote totals? Baris said that NH primary exhibits if the incumbant party is in trouble.
Here is the standard table.
Screenshot 2020-10-20 225131.png

Here is a table of crossover where people wrote in Trump in the Democrat Primary and vice versa.
Screenshot 2020-10-20 225148.png

Here is the overall picture assuming the crossovers were Republicans or Democrats changing their minds.
Screenshot 2020-10-20 225141.png
 
Here is the standard table.
View attachment 1676722
Here is a table of crossover where people wrote in Trump in the Democrat Primary and vice versa.
View attachment 1676723
Here is the overall picture assuming the crossovers were Republicans or Democrats changing their minds.
View attachment 1676724
That historically shows him beating Clinton, Obama, Bush 43, and even Reagan in percentage of vote share, and ergo, party unity in NH. Shocking.

NH is the type of state where if you fuck up, they will be the first to revolt against you. Seems like the Republican party is united with Trump.

Who thought propping up Biden was a good idea? He was fucking horrible in IA, NH, and NV, three swing states that can be pivotal to establishing your appeal among certain key demographics to win, and everyone said "Fuck that." Galaxy brain move.

Anyways, this happened in Miami today.
NewCuba.jpgEkpLAaPWkAAPay0.jpeg
I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubans and Venezuelans started their own militia, seceded, and declared war on Castro and Maduro. This is the 3rd caravan for Trump in Miami these last 7 days. They are getting bigger as both they organize and as the election nears. And they will vote.
 
That historically shows him beating Clinton, Obama, Bush 43, and even Reagan in percentage of vote share, and ergo, party unity in NH. Shocking.

NH is the type of state where if you fuck up, they will be the first to revolt against you. Seems like the Republican party is united with Trump.

Who thought propping up Biden was a good idea? He was fucking horrible in IA, NH, and NV, three swing states that can be pivotal to establishing your appeal among certain key demographics to win, and everyone said "Fuck that." Galaxy brain move.

Anyways, this happened in Miami today.
View attachment 1676734View attachment 1676735
I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubans and Venezuelans started their own militia, seceded, and declared war on Castro and Maduro. This is the 3rd caravan for Trump in Miami these last 7 days. They are getting bigger as both they organize and as the election nears. And they will vote.
Obama is the reason they are stuck with Joe Biden. Obama decided to intervene and ordered every other challenger to drop out so Biden could defeat Bernie using Niggers. Also Warren stayed in to destroy Bernie further. Bernie is the best example of a politician fully cucked after not learning his lesson the first time.
And word just got out Trump gots a bank account in good old China
So MSNBC is now acknowledging China is a threat to the country. A bank account is what all it took. Their October surprise is more lamer than Biden's coke head son.
 
I think they largely convinced themselves that 2016 was a fluke especially after they managed to retake the House in 2018.

"See guys, we aren't idiots, those Nazi Russians and that fat 4chan hacker guy were the only reason Trump won."

They could've spent time reflecting and shifting their positions to better match what the American people hoped to get from them but they just went further toward IdPol and blatant lies and taking things out of context.

Largely this is fueled by their own delusions that that is what Americans want, Americans want to see all these corporations paying lip service to BLM and Americans want to shun white people and pay reparations; and you know Americans love seeing "Made in China" on all their purchases and seeing people fired or laid off because their jobs are sent to China or India or even rendered obsolete because of automation.

Obviously not every Democrat thinks this way but as far as the DNC is concerned that's where they want to keep going but a Trump win here, especially if he can win enough to fend off ballot harvesting might lead to them changing course but that's very optimistic thinking.



If COVID hadn't struck I could see Trump doing much better in the polls, we'd still have Antifa/BLM rioting over all those dindunuffins but a law and order campaign would've helped out on that front and it'd be easier to counter than a Chinese plague even though the death toll has still been incredibly small when you see how large the US is and many of the fuck ups were the result of shitty governors like Cuomo and Whitmer.

I honestly think they do think 2016 was a fluke but I do find it interesting that the Democrats spent a good chunk of 2017 and 2018 hyping the "Blue Wave" where they'd take full control of Congress but they failed to take the Senate (and the GOP gained more seats there) while only getting a narrow majority in the House.

They learned all the wrong lessons from the 2016 election and the 2018 midterms. The Blue Wave turned out to be a purple splash and if Trump can win a second term despite the pandemic and the BLM coup, that is the kind of thing that would force the DNC's uppermost echelons to admit some uncomfortable truths and clean house, even if they won't say it publicly.


Looking at the 2008 Democrat Primary voter turnout, I can now see why people like Nate Plastic keep going on and on about how Biden will have 2008 level turnout even if I heavily disagree.

The problem with looking at the 2008 election is that it was very much a unique one of a kind scenario with both the primaries and the general election itself.

The primaries had a high turnout for the Democrats because you had both Hillary and Obama running for the nomination and both had a lot of hype behind them both because of the "first woman president/first black president" landmark moment vibe and because everyone was so pissed at Bush.

Hillary Clinton was also a lot less hated in 2008 compared to 2016, mainly because everyone was pissed at Bush and the GOP and Hillary leaned more on the idea of a "Clinton Restoration" and a return to the wider sensibilities of the 90's in her campaigning. The Great Recession sort of killed that then and there while you had Obama being far more charismatic by comparison.

The general election had a high turnout because of the hype surrounding the first black president plus the fact that everyone wanted the GOP gone.
 
I honestly think they do think 2016 was a fluke but I do find it interesting that the Democrats spent a good chunk of 2017 and 2018 hyping the "Blue Wave" where they'd take full control of Congress but they failed to take the Senate (and the GOP gained more seats there) while only getting a narrow majority in the House.

They learned all the wrong lessons from the 2016 election and the 2018 midterms. The Blue Wave turned out to be a purple splash and if Trump can win a second term despite the pandemic and the BLM coup, that is the kind of thing that would force the DNC's uppermost echelons to admit some uncomfortable truths and clean house, even if they won't say it publicly.




The problem with looking at the 2008 election is that it was very much a unique one of a kind scenario with both the primaries and the general election itself.

The primaries had a high turnout for the Democrats because you had both Hillary and Obama running for the nomination and both had a lot of hype behind them both because of the "first woman president/first black president" landmark moment vibe and because everyone was so pissed at Bush.

Hillary Clinton was also a lot less hated in 2008 compared to 2016, mainly because everyone was pissed at Bush and the GOP and Hillary leaned more on the idea of a "Clinton Restoration" and a return to the wider sensibilities of the 90's in her campaigning. The Great Recession sort of killed that then and there while you had Obama being far more charismatic by comparison.

The general election had a high turnout because of the hype surrounding the first black president plus the fact that everyone wanted the GOP gone.
Democrats are in course to get at least 60 million popular votes as they have been consistent in the last 4 elections. Democrats replaced the old white boomers with new BLM niggers and Bernie Bros already enslaved to the DNC ideology.

Question is that can Trump truly make that turnout happen in the rust belt to win. There is a lot of talk of the shy voter meme and silent majority meme but it might jinx it somehow for Trump.
 
I'm surprised 538 is still going and gets enough traffic. I think he was only saved because he was the least wrong during the last election, and noted that Hillary was vulnerable in the swing states compared to Obama 2012.

I remember this one Asian pollster guy who basically gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning, and ended up having to make good on his promise of eating a bug when she lost.
Nate Hitler's claim to fame was accurately predicting how the states and counties would go. His 2016 predictions seemed decent to me, at least on election night (you can argue he'd been full of shit then dialed it back as all the pollsters are doing now), albeit I don't recall it in detail. If you want to argue he was full of shit, you look at the individual predictions rather than just "who wins", and everything is correlated making even that challenging to evaluate. I think the current propaganda shill plot arc all happened since 2016. Given how hard he's predicting Biden wins in a landslide, I think he's over as a useful pawn if Trump is reelected.

Polls are complete fucking garbage. I know that's redundant and I know it's been said so many times that the sentence is starting to develop a smooth spot like it's the fucking Blarney Stone, but the biggest reason that polls are absolute dogshit apart from all of the other reasons that have been listed off since the beginning of time, are that polls and percentage-based predictions can't be tested and verified after the fact. Their results are never reproducible and they have no veracity.

Say that a poll puts one person at 80% and another at 15% and another at 5%. There's only a binary solution at the end of that equation though: One candidate wins. You only get to roll the dice one time. You're not aiming for an average amount of wins over time, you're not rolling the dice again to hope for a better candidate, and the situational conditions change tremendously with every single election, so what's the point of reducing it to percentages? Even if you ignore the fraudulent or misguided methods that go into each poll, what's the point if the outcome is singular and binary?

Does anyone ever go back and prove that Trump had a 2% chance of winning and actually won the electoral lottery? Do they go back down through all of the numbers and verify with 100% certainty that Candidate A had 58% and Candidate B had 42%, and lay out exactly how they came to that precise, mathematical denomination and how the candidate managed to roll the dice in a way that lead them to beating their opponent despite allegedly having a smaller or larger percentage?

No. They're completely wiped after every election and everyone forgets about them. Without looking it up, what was Obama's chance to win the 2008 election? What was George Bush's? What was Clinton's?

Polls are wishful thinking; they're a random-number generator based on incredibly flawed data, incredibly limited focus groups, and their results can't be quantified after an election. There's no "has a % chance to win" because the system isn't set up to work like that in the first place. Even if it was absolutely bereft of fraud, the entire methodology behind polling is completely broken and completely unrelated to the electoral system. Polls are meaningless.
You're mostly right, but you can evaluate the accuracy of the many smaller predictions that went into the whole to get a touch more feedback then "win" or "lose". I agree polls have become largely irrelevant, but I think it's mostly other factors: land lines, the priority being to push a narrative, people not picking up the phone, etc.

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Expect COVID to become the Democrat talking point of the next two weeks at the exclusion of everything else.
That's their best strategy IMO. It's the one talking point that seems to have stuck to him outside the TDS bubble.

It'd frankly be hilarious (and kind of badass) if Trump lost mainly because nature itself fucked him over with a sudden hurricane, tornado army, and blizzards.

I wouldn't even be mad.
COVID is already looking like the mandate of heaven is lost, may as well make it explicit.

The democratic plantation is real, apparently.

And TDS is one hell of a drug.
It's primarily machine politics. Black churches get out the vote, social consequences for visible defiance, etc. This is what happens when the Democrats successfully make it socially unacceptable to vote GOP within a community.

You make us miss Ashy
Ashy got some good hits in sometimes. What ever happened to him anyway? Did he check into Calmwood quietly or prefer being dragged away kicking and screaming when Bernie cucked again?
 
In the past Id say LARP, but after watching that fat fuck Barr let Antifags burn down multiple cities over Fentanyl Floyd- Id be a bit spooked from that if I were a normie.
It's a false flag same as those emails "from the proudboys" in Florida telling people to vote for Trump or else. People know if you actually pull this shit it ends up working against you more than for you so it's more effective to pretend to be the other side and false flag it. Either that or it's just some random idiot larping who thinks he done good but no way any "let me put my felony voter intimidation in writing" sceme is actually an organized effort involving more that 2-3 people max. Only Jacob Wohl is that fucking stupid.
 
Via James Woods on Twitter. Trump supporters with yards signs are being sent these

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I'd say try it bitch, if that's how far you're willing to take it then you've made your choices. These fuckers are writing checks with their mouths that they better be willing to cash if they don't wanna get hurt. If this is legit, I'd recommend this guy take out a fat life insurance policy so his family can afford a nice casket.
 
It's a false flag same as those emails "from the proudboys" in Florida telling people to vote for Trump or else. People know if you actually pull this shit it ends up working against you more than for you so it's more effective to pretend to be the other side and false flag it. Either that or it's just some random idiot larping who thinks he done good but no way any "let me put my felony voter intimidation in writing" sceme is actually an organized effort involving more that 2-3 people max. Only Jacob Wohl is that fucking stupid.
just like 4th of july was gonna be isis underground 300 kills each muthafucka fireworks obscuring ak47 style gettysburg SEIGE!
 
I don't see anything big happening till after the votes are counted. With the exceptions of a few nutbags showing up to polling centers with guns "to prevent fraud" if they are red hats or "to protect voters" from the "Not Fucking Around" movement guys or New Black Panthers. Don't be surprised if a few of them cross a line and end up buried in a Fed prison for the next 10 years.

If Trump wins riots for sure, likely starting as soon as it's called. If Trump loses wingnuts coming out of every ass crack militia thinking they are about to jump off the Turner Diaries by shooting up liberals and minorities, though honestly we'll probably see that either way since we've already seen plenty of that action the past few years. Left wing domestic terrorism wouldn't really shock me but overall that scene isn't as organized as the right wing militia boys who've been jerking each other off out in the woods for the past 20 years.

This country is a fucking mess.
 
It's primarily machine politics. Black churches get out the vote, social consequences for visible defiance, etc. This is what happens when the Democrats successfully make it socially unacceptable to vote GOP within a community.
Incidentally, this is also the reason why euro social democrats are banking so hard on islams.
 
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