Video by Baris discussing Pennsylvania and other states,
- Baris believes it is all eyes on Pennsylvania, the state that decides the election
- Kenosha County, Wisconsin looks like the state is even or even going a little for Trump by 2-4 points
- Disparity is not as bad in Pennsylvania as in other states. Both sides wants to talk to him while it's more like one side in other states, resulting in non-response bias
- Independents looks like it tightened, but not really. Believes that some Independents are really calling themselves Republican due to social desirability bias
- Trump is winning those without college degree 55%-37.5%
- Says there is no doubt social desirability bias with people with college degrees
- Trump is only a hair behind Biden in the 30-44 range - 46.7-46,8%
- Biden only moved up 0.2% while Trump moved up 1.8%
- Trump slightly closed female while Trump widened his leads with male, also overtook Biden when it comes to seniors but still lower than in Florida
- Seniors are also uncomfortable with telling people how they tell people to vote, same with black men. Baris was shocked to find out that undecided black men broke towards Trump
- Trump needs all of his voters, included sporadic voter who say they will vote for him
- Biden is under-performing among the youth vote while Trump leads Biden among 40-64 by a 3.9 lead
- Trump is doing fantastic in rural areas
- Trump has a fourteen point lead among Luzerne, Monroe, and Lackawanna
- Trump improved among crossover vote, which is a problem for Biden
- Trump gets vote share from those who somewhat disapprove, particularly old white Democrats
- Trump needs to get the conservative Independent for no degrees
- Complains about Trump supporters hanging up, approximately ten supporters for every Biden supporter
- Believes it's a wrap in North Carolina and Florida
- Looks like the Orlando areas will swing 4-5 points while Miami-Dade will swing 9-14 due to Cuban and Venezuelans and doing better among Hispanics in there
- Black vote increased from 16% to 18.9% in Pennsylvania
- Trump has increased his lead among whites but Baris thinks winning 55% would be the safety zone for him
- Biden is doing slightly worse in base erosion than Hillary Clinton
- Trump is winning 1/4 of the vote in Philadelphia, might come down a little as he continues to track ti
- Trump will do better in Central and Dutch Region
- Trump is at 37.7% in Allegheny County, but undecided White Democrats could boost Trump to 40%
- Sampling off could be off 7% with nationality
- Believes working class is underrepresented with Italians
- Union voters flipped for Biden compared to last polls by 3.2%
- Retired voters going for Biden, reminder not all seniors are retired
- Biden is falling with people with high school and less while Trump is increasing
- Suburban voters are apparently similar to what Hillary Clinton had in the 2016 poll against Trump in that state
- Trump needs to turn out the likely voters to win the state. Depending on turnout, he could win as much as two points, lose as much as four points
- Martha McSally looking like she will have a slight lead, at one or two points, might do better than Trump due to better Democratic crossover
@legalkochi
- Wisconsin and Michigan both have higher no-response bias than Pennsyvlania
- Looking at the raw data (which could be misleading), Wisconsin looks like it is close but does not believe Wisconsin is enough to win the election (I think it depends on how Nebraska Congressional District 2 and Maine Congressional District 2)
- 80% of people know the Biden scandal in Pennsylvania, 70% in Wisconsin, and 72.5% in Michigan, he believes the Biden scandal can hurt him as more people know about it
