2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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2d6 said:
What's the possibility of the election resulting in a 269-269 situation? It can happen if Trump takes all the battleground states plus MI, AZ, and Maine's 2nd District but Biden nags PA. I can only imagine the shit show that might cause.
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The only way I can see a 269-269 situation is if Biden gets PA, MI, AZ, all of Maine, and the the second/third districts of Nebraska while Trump has the rest of the states he won in 2016.
 
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Pointless Pedant said:
Trump popular vote win is unlikely because of how concentrated populations are in New York and California, but it's possible given how uninspiring Biden is. I believe Clinton's popular vote win in 2016 was entirely because of the massive margin in California.
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If you took away California, Trump won the popular vote in the other 49 states by 1.4 million. That's how big the gap in California is; Hillary won the popular vote nationwide by 2.9 million because she won California by 4.3 million.

Edit: Trump's biggest win by Raw population was Texas with 807K. Hillary won FOUR states more than that: California (4.3 million), New York (1.7 million), Illinois (945K), and Massachusetts (904K).
 
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2d6 said:
What's the possibility of the election resulting in a 269-269 situation? It can happen if Trump takes all the battleground states plus WI, AZ, and Maine's 2nd District but Biden nags PA. I can only imagine the shit show that might cause.
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Trump wins. The states elect the president on a one vote per state basis, and there are more red states than blue ones.

This has never happened, but there's a procedure that will cause massive outrage if it happens.
 
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UselessIdiot said:
Wow, that's quite a lot. How much do you get if you win?
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I've been making a series of smaller bets to it here and there as it dragged out (laptop/debates/blatant censorship etc) so the odds have ranged from $2 - $2.80. I think its around $9-9.5k USD.

Gambling is my one vice so I go balls to the wall with it. Will show receipts on election outcome win or lose, unlike that bloke who didn't eat that hat.
 
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Pointless Pedant said:
Trump popular vote win is unlikely because of how concentrated populations are in New York and California, but it's possible given how uninspiring Biden is. I believe Clinton's popular vote win in 2016 was entirely because of the massive margin in California.
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I'm hoping Trump manages to at least close the gap here in California a bit from 2016. I have seen a lot of open Trump support where I live and I passed a massive Trump caravan while driving through the Bay Area the other day, things I never saw in 2016. However LA alone is a massive blue bastion to say nothing of the other cities so it remains to be seen just how much Trump will lose by here.
 
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640by480 said:
I've been making a series of smaller bets to it here and there as it dragged out (laptop/debates/blatant censorship etc) so the odds have ranged from $2 - $2.80. I think its around $9-9.5k USD.

Gambling is my one vice so I go balls to the wall with it. Will show receipts on election outcome win or lose, unlike that bloke who didn't eat that hat.
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Local bookmaker let me stack Trump,republican and state win bets, as in the odds multiply. I'm not sure if they don't get how elections work or if they made a mistake, but it's not my problem lmao, 600 EUR expected return on a 10EUR bet. It's 2.7 on Trump here, even those are ridiculous odds IMO
 
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UselessIdiot said:
Seems bad if Trump has lost ground there compared to 2016 (when he lost it by 1.5 points).

I would hate it if Trump won FL/AZ/NC/OH/IA, but lost the entire Rust Belt -- which is a distinct possibility, as much as I hate to say it.
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There's always a chance Trump supporters aren't answering polls. Even GOP-friendly pollsters admit that it's a problem for them.
 
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The three day extension and no signature requirement on absentee ballots in Pennsylvania will stay.

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The reason for this is that Judge Amy Barrett did not have time to fully review the parties' filing since she was just recently appointed into the Supreme Court. However, the Pennsylvanian GOPs can reapply after the election in case there are issues with the ballots. Ballots submitted after November 3rd at 8 :00 p.m. EST and November 6th at 5:00 p.m. EST will be segregated (archive).

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But Kavanaugh apparently switched sides from the earlier Pennsylvania order, maybe because it was too close to Election Day, as he did not join in the statement Gorsuch, Alito, and Thomas made. Apparently, "additional opinions" may follow. But no guarantees that in case voter fraud flips the state to Biden that they will hear it.

Given that Biden is three points ahead in Trafalgar's Minnesota poll (archive) and that Baris has hinted that Minnesota and Michigan are not close (but I'll wait for the results first), it looks like Baris' prediction about Pennsylvania being the bellwether state are coming true. Our hope now is that Trump can swing Pennsylvania by a percent or more to avoid voting fraud from flipping the state. That or he can get Wisconsin which I still think he has a decent shot at.
 
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Someone Awful said:
The three day extension and no signature requirement on absentee ballots in Pennsylvania will stay.

View attachment 1692840

Link / Archive

The reason for this is that Judge Amy Barrett did not have time to fully review the parties' filing since she was just recently appointed into the Supreme Court. However, the Pennsylvanian GOPs can reapply after the election in case there are issues with the ballots. Ballots submitted after November 3rd at 8 :00 p.m. EST and November 6th at 5:00 p.m. EST will be segregated (archive).

View attachment 1692862
View attachment 1692864

But Kavanaugh apparently switched sides from the earlier Pennsylvania order, maybe because it was too close to Election Day, as he did not join in the statement Gorsuch, Alito, and Thomas made. Apparently, "additional opinions" may follow. But no guarantees that in case voter fraud flips the state to Biden that they will hear it.

Given that Biden is three points ahead in Trafalgar's Minnesota poll (archive) and that Baris has hinted that Minnesota and Michigan are not close (but I'll wait for the results first), it looks like Baris' prediction about Pennsylvania being the bellwether state are coming true. Our hope now is that Trump can swing Pennsylvania by a percent or more to avoid voting fraud from flipping the state. That or he can get Wisconsin which I still think he has a decent shot at
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I don't know about Minnesota. Biden had much more of a bigger lead a couple of weeks ago the fact that it went down to 3% should be saying something.
 
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