2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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SmugAutist said:
It's what a fragmented, cockblocked movement looks like. The DNC shouldn't have ratfucked Boynie back in 2016 because I think he still would have lost against Trump but the Democrats would have had the advantage of saying: "well, we tried it your way and you fucked up." Instead, they nominated one of the most corrupt, hated women in America and got humiliated by a reality tv show star. Come 2020, Bernie fucks up because he's swallowed the Social Justice Kool-Aid while the party are about to lose again to the same reality tv star. So now the Woke left will be even more fervent in their ideology, believing they will secure a landslide for socialism until they get fucked Corbyn style and leave only a shattered party behind.

If only Obama hadn't stroked their micropeens with teases of socialism, they probably wouldn't be this up in arms, but it's the golem the Democrats have created, and now they have to live with them.
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Late as fuck but I am 99.99% (I could be wrong) certain than Bernie @016 and 2020 were scampaigns, I remember revealed in 2016 that Bernie was in on the whole plot to hand Hillary the nomination and if it the same was revealed again for 2020 election I wouldn't be surprised.
Bernie chucked Bernie and all it cost him was the illusion of dignity people believed he had and to pay a portion of the funds he grifted in each election
 
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Panthera Rosea said:
OH 500 BILLION TO NIGGERS is somehow a bad thing.
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"giving 500 billion dollars to niggers because they feel bad this week when one chimp charged the police with a knife is somehow a bad thing"

niggers should have their wages garnished to pay for businesses they destroyed, though that'll probably take centuries to pay off
 
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I found this on a whim and read it because I like to see outside my bubble every once in a while.


‘Warning flare’: New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead​

archive.is

‘Warning flare’: New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-…

archived 30 Oct 2020 20:24:48 UTC
archive.is archive.is

This is from a week ago, and boy howdy have things changed in just a week.

There’s a lot to talk about, I noticed a few mistaken assumptions that Barnes and Baris pointed out, like how modeling an electorate in states without voter registration rolls can’t really be trusted, overoptimistic estimates for Biden with independents, etc.

I loved this mother of all copes from a Democrat commenting on the Wisconsin race:
“Nobody's talking about Kenosha. They're talking about Covid. They're talking about these coronavirus numbers. And if you are a Republican counting on an in-person vote on Nov. 3, with the coronavirus numbers spiking, the chances of people showing up to vote are lower, especially if your base is older or more likely to get sick. They have to make up a huge deficit on Election Day in the middle of the biggest pandemic the country has seen in 100 years.”
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I guaran-fucking-tee that Democrat voters are going to be disproportionately affected by this. At worst it’s a wash.

Also, it’s :optimistic: as fuck to assume that civil unrest and safety aren’t going to affect turnout more than as COVID.

He’s making a few interesting points though, even if he doesn’t realize it. I’ll admit there are dangers associated with relying on Election Day turnout, but a lot of these races have tightened to the point where even a marginally better (R) showing on the 3rd is enough to seal the deal for DJT.

Secondly, I’m beginning to suspect that the recent media blitz about COVID isn’t quite organic, but an attempt to depress Election Day turnout enough so that Biden’s shrinking leads can hold.
 
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Tour of Italy said:
Secondly, I’m beginning to suspect that the recent media blitz about COVID isn’t quite organic, but an attempt to depress Election Day turnout enough so that Biden’s shrinking leads can hold.
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It's such a bad strategy though. That will mostly deter people that will vote the way they want, and they need as many as they can get. Florida early voting is on par with 2016, and there's still the weekend remaining.
Screenshot (131).png
 
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lol there won't be civil unrest if people are afraid of a whimpy ass virus and 17 year olds that can kick their asses.
 
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Someone Awful said:
Baris's video on Wisconsin is coming today at 3 PM EST.


The Badger state is currently Biden+2, but it does not factor in the northeastern states. Once it does, it might be closer to Biden+1. Baris has said this is an important video, so I'm definitely going to give it a watch.
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- Wisconsin is basically tied
- Poll in Arizona has tighten a little bit for Trump, but still ahead
- The D/R split is not the be-all, end-all, region and education is so important
- Norwegians are 9% of the population, a low estimates, 45% are Germans, English are 6%
- Might be more Republican than what the inferred voter mapping map implies, but it is already at R+8 in inferred voters
- Democrats are far more willing to take surveys while Republicans like to abandon surveys
- Republicans inferred 37.99%, Democratic inferred 29.95% (massive), Unknown inferred 32.07% which shocked Baris
- Trump is underperforming in the Northeast Wisconsin
- Trump is losing Northwest Wisconsin but not as much
- Heavy non-response bias in Northeast Wisconsin
- Trump is leading in Kenosha, doing better among among Independents in Kenosha than statewide. This has happened twice
- Jobs & Economy is the most important issue, but Coronavirus is the second most important issue (a close second)
- Kenosha cares a lot about crime & safety
- Trump will win more in rural Wisconsin, but slippage is not as pronounced in the suburbs
- Trump has a slight lead in Wisconsin
- Trump needs to do better with men in Wisconsin
- Wisconsin could have a very male electorate
- College students outside postgraduates are not abandoning Trump, not doing bad among graduates but horrible among postgraudes (30 points behind)
- Trump has a significant lead among 45-64, not bad with 30-44 (better than most Republicans)
- There are problems with youth votes for Biden, Trump is at 36%
- Trump is doing underwhelming in the Northeast
- 48.2% Biden - 45.5% Trump, a Biden+2.7 lead but polling in northeastern Wisconsin is not done yet
- Douglas and Ashland are reliable Democratic Counties, and there are quite a few votes in Douglas
- Still think Pennsylvania is still Trump's best state and heading in Trump's direction
- Norwegians are voting for Trump by 18.5%
- Biden is winning with English, French, Swedish, Danish, and Scot-Irish
- Trump is winning Irish, Italian, Norwegians, and Germans
- Will likely lose the suburbs by ten points in Pennsylvania, Baris thinks Trump needs to park in Scranton
- If Trump wins, they will go for the Electoral College (same if Biden wins)
- 76% of people heard about the Biden scandal
- 48% are uncomfortable with Harris wins
- Seems to be a pretty big third-party vote in Minnesota according to raw data, Baris will crunch the results tonight
- Trump is taking 8% of leaners while Biden takes 5% in raw data, could change as Baris crunches and weight results
- Catholic vote goes a little for Trump in Wisconsin
- Biden looks to widen his margin in Bucks County, Pennsylvania but Trump is closing it in Lackawanna County
- Trump has to do better in the Southeast Wisconsin
- Big British betters are not betting against Barnes on a Trump win because they do not trust Nate Silver
- Believes that exit pollings are a sham and should be done away with
- Will be part of Decision USA 2020 which will be People's Pundit's Daily and it will have county-to-county breakdown
- He'll be popping on in War Room, Decision Desk 2020, and Quite Frankly
- He will do a couple of videos on Minnesota and the update on Arizona
 
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Someone Awful said:
- Wisconsin is basically tied
- Poll in Arizona has tighten a little bit for Trump, but still ahead
- The D/R split is not the be-all, end-all, region and education is so important
- Norwegians are 9% of the population, a low estimates, 45% are Germans, English are 6%
- Might be more Republican than what the inferred voter mapping map implies, but it is already at R+8 in inferred voters
- Democrats are far more willing to take surveys while Republicans like to abandon surveys
- Republicans inferred 37.99%, Democratic inferred 29.95% (massive), Unknown inferred 32.07% which shocked Baris
- Trump is underperforming in the Northeast Wisconsin
- Trump is losing Northwest Wisconsin but not as much
- Heavy non-response bias in Northeast Wisconsin
- Trump is leading in Kenosha, doing better among among Independents in Kenosha than statewide. This has happened twice
- Jobs & Economy is the most important issue, but Coronavirus is the second most important issue (a close second)
- Kenosha cares a lot about crime & safety
- Trump will win more in rural Wisconsin, but slippage is not as pronounced in the suburbs
- Trump has a slight lead in Wisconsin
- Trump needs to do better with men in Wisconsin
- Wisconsin could have a very male electorate
- College students outside postgraduates are not abandoning Trump, not doing bad among graduates but horrible among postgraudes (30 points behind)
- Trump has a significant lead among 45-64, not bad with 30-44 (better than most Republicans)
- There are problems with youth votes for Biden, Trump is at 36%
- Trump is doing underwhelming in the Northeast
- 48.2% Biden - 45.5% Trump, a Biden+2.7 lead but polling in northeastern Wisconsin is not done yet
- Douglas and Ashland are reliable Democratic Counties, and there are quite a few votes in Douglas
- Still think Pennsylvania is still Trump's best state and heading in Trump's direction
- Norwegians are voting for Trump by 18.5%
- Biden is winning with English, French, Swedish, Danish, and Scot-Irish
- Trump is winning Irish, Italian, Norwegians, and Germans
- Will likely lose the suburbs by ten points in Pennsylvania, Baris thinks Trump needs to park in Scranton
- If Trump wins, they will go for the Electoral College (same if Biden wins)
- 76% of people heard about the Biden scandal
- 48% are uncomfortable with Harris wins
- Seems to be a pretty big third-party vote in Minnesota according to raw data, Baris will crunch the results tonight
- Trump is taking 8% of leaners while Biden takes 5% in raw data, could change as Baris crunches and weight results
- Catholic vote goes a little for Trump in Wisconsin
- Biden looks to widen his margin in Bucks County, Pennsylvania but Trump is closing it in Lackawanna County
- Trump has to do better in the Southeast Wisconsin
- Big British betters are not betting against Barnes on a Trump win because they do not trust Nate Silver
- Believes that exit pollings are a sham and should be done away with
- Will be part of Decision USA 2020 which will be People's Pundit's Daily and it will have county-to-county breakdown
- He'll be popping on in War Room, Decision Desk 2020, and Quite Frankly
- He will do a couple of videos on Minnesota and the update on Arizona
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>Wisconsin is basically tied.
>But the poll's not done yet.
>And Biden has a 2.7 lead.

Why even talk about it? He said it himself he waits until it done for professionalism. Furthermore, why even say its tied? Just say Biden lead and be done with it.
 
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Someone Awful said:
- Wisconsin is basically tied
- Poll in Arizona has tighten a little bit for Trump, but still ahead
- The D/R split is not the be-all, end-all, region and education is so important
- Norwegians are 9% of the population, a low estimates, 45% are Germans, English are 6%
- Might be more Republican than what the inferred voter mapping map implies, but it is already at R+8 in inferred voters
- Democrats are far more willing to take surveys while Republicans like to abandon surveys
- Republicans inferred 37.99%, Democratic inferred 29.95% (massive), Unknown inferred 32.07% which shocked Baris
- Trump is underperforming in the Northeast Wisconsin
- Trump is losing Northwest Wisconsin but not as much
- Heavy non-response bias in Northeast Wisconsin
- Trump is leading in Kenosha, doing better among among Independents in Kenosha than statewide. This has happened twice
- Jobs & Economy is the most important issue, but Coronavirus is the second most important issue (a close second)
- Kenosha cares a lot about crime & safety
- Trump will win more in rural Wisconsin, but slippage is not as pronounced in the suburbs
- Trump has a slight lead in Wisconsin
- Trump needs to do better with men in Wisconsin
- Wisconsin could have a very male electorate
- College students outside postgraduates are not abandoning Trump, not doing bad among graduates but horrible among postgraudes (30 points behind)
- Trump has a significant lead among 45-64, not bad with 30-44 (better than most Republicans)
- There are problems with youth votes for Biden, Trump is at 36%
- Trump is doing underwhelming in the Northeast
- 48.2% Biden - 45.5% Trump, a Biden+2.7 lead but polling in northeastern Wisconsin is not done yet
- Douglas and Ashland are reliable Democratic Counties, and there are quite a few votes in Douglas
- Still think Pennsylvania is still Trump's best state and heading in Trump's direction
- Norwegians are voting for Trump by 18.5%
- Biden is winning with English, French, Swedish, Danish, and Scot-Irish
- Trump is winning Irish, Italian, Norwegians, and Germans
- Will likely lose the suburbs by ten points in Pennsylvania, Baris thinks Trump needs to park in Scranton
- If Trump wins, they will go for the Electoral College (same if Biden wins)
- 76% of people heard about the Biden scandal
- 48% are uncomfortable with Harris wins
- Seems to be a pretty big third-party vote in Minnesota according to raw data, Baris will crunch the results tonight
- Trump is taking 8% of leaners while Biden takes 5% in raw data, could change as Baris crunches and weight results
- Catholic vote goes a little for Trump in Wisconsin
- Biden looks to widen his margin in Bucks County, Pennsylvania but Trump is closing it in Lackawanna County
- Trump has to do better in the Southeast Wisconsin
- Big British betters are not betting against Barnes on a Trump win because they do not trust Nate Silver
- Believes that exit pollings are a sham and should be done away with
- Will be part of Decision USA 2020 which will be People's Pundit's Daily and it will have county-to-county breakdown
- He'll be popping on in War Room, Decision Desk 2020, and Quite Frankly
- He will do a couple of videos on Minnesota and the update on Arizona
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It does not really matter but I will find it amusing if Trump edges out the Catholic and Irish vote if Baris' analysis is correct there, considering how Biden has tried to use his background to attract those voters.
 
GuntPunt said:
>Wisconsin is basically tied.
>But the poll's not done yet.
>And Biden has a 2.7 lead.

Why even talk about it? He said it himself he waits until it done for professionalism.
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Because he said this was an important video, which is why I summarized it. The data is still relevant outside of Northeastern Wisconsin. I do think Wisconsin might turn purple once Baris finishes sampling that area though.

But it is good to know that Trump is leading in Kenosha. That keeps Wisconsin competitive and is a sign that Trump may have made gains in Hennenpin and Ramsay County in Minnesota too since they were even worse hit by the riots.
 
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Someone Awful said:
Because he said this was an important video, which is why I summarized it. The data is still relevant outside of Northeastern Wisconsin. I do think Wisconsin might turn purple once Baris finishes sampling that area though.

But it is good to know that Trump is leading in Kenosha. That keeps Wisconsin competitive and is a sign that Trump may have made gains in Hennenpin and Ramsay County in Minnesota too since they were even worse hit by the riots.
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I do watch the videos still, but I am finding myself a bit skeptical now of Baris for a reason.

You left out when Baris said in this video that he expects a 157 million voter electorate, or an increase of 21 million voters from 2016 after MONTHS of laughing at that model with Barnes. That shit was drilled into me, and now he wants me to believe it? When you get such a whiplash about what someone is telling you, you start to question stuff, be it from anywhere.

I don't mean to say Baris is acting in bad faith, I am saying repeating something for months and then saying the exact opposite is cause for at least some notice.
 
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GuntPunt said:
I do watch the videos still, but I am finding myself a bit skeptical now of Baris for a reason.

You left out when Baris said in this video that he expects a 157 million voter electorate, or an increase of 21 million voters after MONTHS of laughing at that model with Barnes. That shit was drilled into me, and now he wants me to believe it? When you get such a whiplash about what someone is telling you, you start to question stuff, be it from anywhere.

I don't mean to say Baris is acting in bad faith, I am saying repeating something for months and then saying the exact opposite is cause for at least some notice.
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A 157 million voter electorate is not unrealistic - 12.7% increase is still smaller than what we got from 2000 to 2004 which was 13.6%. I don't know if it will be that big, but I wouldn't be surprised. What he doubts - and he always had - was the media narrative that we would see 180 million voters suddenly come to the polls, which has no basis on happening and relies on a massive youth turnout (which so far we are not seeing).
 
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