2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Dyn]

Both sides are acting as if they are going to lose

The choices are Trump or Biden. Both sides are going to lose.

 

[FAQnews Correspondent]

Republicans are now near 92k fewer votes than Democrats, a closer, more favorable margin than 2016 in Florida.

 

[GuntPunt]

This election is weird.

Earlier in the week, I saw the Trump supporters showing signs of "cope." Over the past two days, though, I have seen the left showing signs of "cope."

Both sides are in a state of cope right now, from what I see. Both sides are acting as if they are going to lose, aside from the candidates themselves. Tuesday is going to be a shitshow, indeed.

Maybe on the internet, but Trump supporters are getting more bold in real life. They chased Joe out of Texas and are holding dozens of car rallies across states and areas. Fucking Beverly Hills, CA is having Trump-less rallies. Biden is lucky to get 100 people to even look in his direction that aren't honking clown horns at him. And its only amplifying as the 3rd grows near.

Call it cope or call it what happened last time: people started going to Trump en masse at the last second to give him the win. We see its happening again in some polls that defy Nate Silver's decree of Orange man losing like that Iowa poll.

Let's see if lightening strikes twice.

 

[RedStorm]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1322707927640190977

This guy claims Dems are up +430k in Florida.

Where is he getting this?

You're severely misreading that tweet. He's saying +430K as in the vote total of Dems/Repubs/Indies since he last tweeted about FL results has increased by around 430K.

He's saying Dems are only 1% over the Reps in FL in the combined VBM/early-in-person voting so far. Similar to their 2016 lead pre-election day. That's a terrible sign for the Ds given that voting by mail and voting early is more popular for Democrats this year than it is for Republicans. This implies that election day voting in Florida will even be more Trump friendly than 2016, which suggests that Trump will win FL by a greater margin than he did in 2016.

If Trump wins FL by a greater margin than he did in 2016, it suggests he's winning re-election. These things don't happen in a vacuum.

Maybe on the internet, but Trump supporters are getting more bold in real life. They chased Joe out of Texas and are holding dozens of car rallies across states and areas. Fucking Beverly Hills, CA is having Trump-less rallies. Biden is lucky to get 100 people to even look in his direction that aren't honking clown horns at him. And its only amplifying as the 3rd grows near.

Call it cope or call it what happened last time: people started going to Trump en masse at the last second to give him the win. We see its happening again in some polls that defy Nate Silver's decree of Orange man losing like that Iowa poll.

Let's see if lightening strikes twice.

Lightning doesn't need to strike twice.

It is NOT a miracle to outperform polling with poor methodologies in an environment that exacerbates polling error more than ever. You might as well say 'lightning needs to strike twice' to win a competitive marathon race if a broken weight scale claims you're a morbidly obese 9999lb person when you're a 130lb skinny man with optimal runners physique.

 

[Michael Jacks0n]

Maybe on the internet, but Trump supporters are getting more bold in real life. They chased Joe out of Texas and are holding dozens of car rallies across states and areas. Fucking Beverly Hills, CA is having Trump-less rallies. Biden is lucky to get 100 people to even look in his direction that aren't honking clown horns at him. And its only amplifying as the 3rd grows near.

Call it cope or call it what happened last time: people started going to Trump en masse at the last second to give him the win. We see its happening again in some polls that defy Nate Silver's decree of Orange man losing like that Iowa poll.

Let's see if lightening strikes twice.

Yeah, that's what makes me optimistic. I remember 2008 and 2012 when libs had a hardon for Obama, but not nearly as much as Trump's Army has for him. And not even Romney or McCain had this big of vocal support like this. Normie conservatives in pre-2016 elections just wore their t-shirts, wore their hats, and put election signs in their front yards. Fucking parades? Convoys? Horn-honking sabotage? Boat parades? Jesus Christ, these guys are making Dead-Heads look tame.

 

[Doctor of Autism]

You're severely misreading that tweet. He's saying +430K as in the vote total of Dems/Repubs/Indies since he last tweeted about FL results has increased by around 430K.

He's saying Dems are only 1% over the Reps in FL in the combined VBM/early-in-person voting so far. Similar to their 2016 lead pre-election day. That's a terrible sign for the Ds given that voting by mail and voting early is more popular for Democrats this year than it is for Republicans. This implies that election day voting in Florida will even be more Trump friendly than 2016, which suggests that Trump will win FL by a greater margin than he did in 2016.

If Trump wins FL by a greater margin than he did in 2016, it suggests he's winning re-election. These things don't happen in a vacuum.

Well even if Trump wins Florida greater than he did in 2016 it shouldn't indicate he will win, 2020 has proven itself to be a weird year but if history still takes precedent than Trump could likely win.

 

[Harvey Danger]

More Big Tech shenanigans. Trump is rightfully pissed.

From the linked article:

Priscilla Confrey, co-director of New Jersey Women For Trump, says Facebook did not send her any notifications about the removal or explain why the group was removed.

Facebook did not immediately respond to an inquiry from NJ Advance Media about the removal.

Facebook does affix warning labels on posts they deem problematic, and Confrey says in the last two weeks Facebook had flagged certain posts, including those related to COVID-19. When that happens, Confrey said she simply deletes those post rather than have them appear.

“People are really, really mad,” Confrey says. “When you have that many people and they’re shut down, they feel silenced.”

She said she’s sent several emails to Facebook asking for an explanation and for the group to be reinstated. She’s also reaching out to legislators.

 

[RedStorm]

Well even if Trump wins Florida greater than he did in 2016 it shouldn't indicate he will win, 2020 has proven itself to be a weird year but if history still takes precedent than Trump could likely win.

Florida has multiple demographics spread out across their counties, so if...

-Trump is doing better in Miami-Dade than he did in 2016 it means he's generally doing better with Hispanics, which implies that he will do better in a state like Arizona.

-Trump is doing better in Orange County and other counties with large minority populations than he did in 2016 (or at least, isn't doing much worse) it implies that he's doing better with nonwhites in general, which is good news for the rest of the country

-Trump is doing better with midwestern transplants in places like Pasco/Hernando/Sumter/Citrus it suggests that he'll do well in the competitive midwestern battlegrounds like MI and WI

 

[CrippleThreat]

Yeah, that's what makes me optimistic. I remember 2008 and 2012 when libs had a hardon for Obama, but not nearly as much as Trump's Army has for him. And not even Romney or McCain had this big of vocal support like this. Normie conservatives in pre-2016 elections just wore their t-shirts, wore their hats, and put election signs in their front yards. Fucking parades? Convoys? Horn-honking sabotage? Boat parades? Jesus Christ, these guys are making Dead-Heads look tame.

For me at least, I'm glad that Biden at least gets 1/500 of people at his events than Trump. Those folks are wearing their masks, but at least you can tell they aren't so deathly afraid of the coof that they lock themselves in their bubbles and fuck up VBM. It's still a sad sight for Joe (and the guy is already a sad enough sight), but it makes the coof not have the "presence" it initially did.

 

[GuntPunt]

Going to see Trump tomorrow since he is in my neck of the woods. Should be fun.

 

[RedStorm]

Going to see Trump tomorrow since he is in my neck of the woods. Should be fun.

When he wins he should do a victory rally here in NYC. And in all the Safe Blue and Safe Red areas that he hasn't done rallies in this year.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Florida has multiple demographics spread out across their counties, so if...

-Trump is doing better in Miami-Dade than he did in 2016 it means he's generally doing better with Hispanics, which implies that he will do better in a state like Arizona.

-Trump is doing better in Orange County and other counties with large minority populations than he did in 2016 (or at least, isn't doing much worse) it implies that he's doing better with nonwhites in general, which is good news for the rest of the country

-Trump is doing better with midwestern transplants in places like Pasco/Hernando/Sumter/Citrus it suggests that he'll do well in the competitive midwestern battlegrounds like MI and WI

Yes, but with one caveat: doing better with Hispanics in FL is largely driven by his popularity with Cubans and Venezuelans. The Hispanic residents of Arizona are largely Mexican. It's important not to make the Democrat's typical mistake of treating an ethnicity as a homogeneous, hive-mind thinking blob.

Incidentally Barnes made a similar point about Arizona, saying there's a significant transplant community that moves there from the Rust Belt. I forget which state it was (I think Wisconsin), but if you figure it out you could look for a correlation there too.

 

[RedStorm]

Yes, but with one caveat: doing better with Hispanics in FL is largely driven by his popularity with Cubans and Venezuelans. The Hispanic residents of Arizona are largely Mexican. It's important not to make the Democrat's typical mistake of treating an ethnicity as a homogeneous, hive-mind thinking blob.

Incidentally Barnes made a similar point about Arizona, saying there's a significant transplant community that moves there from the Rust Belt. I forget which state it was (I think Wisconsin), but if you figure it out you could look for a correlation there too.

Yes, Miami-Dade wasn't the best example. But I still think we can extrapolate results in FL to other battlegrounds by looking at areas in FL with non-Cuban/non-Venezuelan Hispanics, areas in FL with blacks, and areas in FL with midwestern transplants. I think we can confidently predict the winner around 8:00PM.

 

[JosephStalin]

 

[Michael Jacks0n]

When he wins he should do a victory rally here in NYC. And in all the Safe Blue and Safe Red areas that he hasn't done rallies in this year.

Oh shit, I forgot you even live in NYC. I heard it might be Ground Zero for potential chimpouts after 8/4/2020. Then again, you live in Queens, correct? I used to work in Manhattan a long time ago, but I don't think I really went to Queens very often, so I don't know what the current demographics are like. I remember a lot of Asians and Mexicans from what I saw, but those two groups aren't the kinds to go full Planet of the Apes in the event of riots.

 

[Someone Awful]

Florida has multiple demographics spread out across their counties, so if...

-Trump is doing better in Miami-Dade than he did in 2016 it means he's generally doing better with Hispanics, which implies that he will do better in a state like Arizona.

-Trump is doing better in Orange County and other counties with large minority populations than he did in 2016 (or at least, isn't doing much worse) it implies that he's doing better with nonwhites in general, which is good news for the rest of the country

-Trump is doing better with midwestern transplants in places like Pasco/Hernando/Sumter/Citrus it suggests that he'll do well in the competitive midwestern battlegrounds like MI and WI

- Miami-Dade County's Hispanics are dominated by Cubans that were a solid red block for Republicans, then gradually turned purple and then turned back red for Trump due to new immigrants. These new immigrants also contain Venezuelans and Columbians who are also solid red. But most other Hispanics groups are still mostly Democratic voters, which is why Hillsborough is becoming bluer. Puerto Ricans are one of the most reliable Democratic voting Hispanic voting block and is why the Tampa Bay area is no longer a bellwether. Given that Florida has a low Mexican population, it's not indicative of how Hispanics will vote in Texas and Western US states. Not to say that a shift couldn't be happening now among Mexicans that are not immigrants (Barnes brought up in the Arizona's "What Are The Odds" that Independent working-class Mexicans might be voting Trump), but formulating a reliable or even purple voting block for Republicans takes time, something they won't have if Trump loses. Which is one of the reasons why Trump needs to win, we can't expect anyone else to reform the GOP into a populist party like he is trying to do.

- Duval and Orange County widen out the Biden advantage by 4.6% and 4.28% respectively in early voting. I get that most of it was mail in ballot (not by much though), but that should indicate Duval is flipping and Orange County will become bluer. I know this website says a 5% Biden advantage or less is excellent for Trump, but I can't help but feel that's a narrative spin that Trump will win Florida easily rather than it be a competitive race where he ends up winning 2-3%.

- Are we sure about that? Pasco has barely improved when it comes to advantage although the others have improved by a few percentage. We need to see turnout on Election Day first before we jump to the conclusion that Trump's performance in Pasco, Hernando, Sumter, and Citrus means he will do better in the Midwest (although it is true, we should watch for them to see how they vote). The only reason why I made such a big deal analyzing the Miami-Dade county was because 1) it was to find the closest thing to proof of Trump winning over more Hispanic votes in general (especially Cubans) and 2) shows that even you assume a beyond Obama-level enthusiasm turnout for Biden in the county by giving him 95% of the Democratic vote, 15% of the Republican vote, and 57.5% of Independents that he has lost too many votes there to make it up in the rest of the state. Doing a similar breakdown in other counties with similar rigging against Trump likely would not show as much.

 

[The High Prophet of Truth]

But the Magic Number Machine is based on science!


I believe the real travesty is we don't tell young men what they can do, besides Go To CoLLeDGe. Or maybe it's the notion that they need to be told what to do at all. Cultural support certainly helps, but if your choices are be a doomer or try to figure things out on your own and you decide that's too risky or too much work, then you only have yourself to blame. You can blame others for making it difficult, but for as long as you use that as an excuse to not try, you shouldn't expect sympathy to save you.

I agree to an extent, but a lot of men are just so mentally down they need help to get there. Help that doesn't exist for young men today.

 

[Blubbles]

For me at least, I'm glad that Biden at least gets 1/500 of people at his events than Trump. Those folks are wearing their masks, but at least you can tell they aren't so deathly afraid of the coof that they lock themselves in their bubbles and fuck up VBM. It's still a sad sight for Joe (and the guy is already a sad enough sight), but it makes the coof not have the "presence" it initially did.

I wonder what Bidens rallies would be like without the coof. I dont think Trumps rallies would actually be that different but I wonder if Biden would get a larger draw.

 

[CrippleThreat]

I wonder what Bidens rallies would be like without the coof. I dont think Trumps rallies would actually be that different but I wonder if Biden would get a larger draw.

It will be like Hillary 2.0, and since the media won't be so on edge with protecting Joe like they are now, more people will obviously show up for his rallies, but if there is a sane group in this scenario, they'll shift for Trump because they can see and hear that Joe's losing it.

 

[Disc]

View attachment 1699167
A) Maybe.
B) That doesn't work like that. Nearby states feel the effect of other states trending with similar demographics.
C) Yes.

"Trump has Bill Kristol deepthroating a loaded 45 at DMV next to me fucking with me. I'll teach him to pull the trigger."

This was a good post right until the last line.

If you want to convince people that something's happening, the only thing better than enthusiastically saying it is someone who hates it trying to deny it... while saying they have to have a drink because they're getting nervous.