2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Nate Silver: "Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog"​


Nate, how the fuck is Biden simultaneously the overpowering, landslide candidate and completely dependent on a single state that keeps him from becoming the pitiful underdog candidate?
It's for the same reason why Trump is simultaneously the biggest, tropical storm nuking idiot on Earth, and a chess grandmaster with an intellect that makes geniuses around the world blush.

Crazy how Nate disregards Michigan Wisconsin, Minnesota, and other probable Trump blockers though. If he gave Florida the same spotlight in 2016, as he's now doing with Pennsylvania...

Get out your rainbows. Now.
 
If Biden wins and implements his retarded lock down and attempts to get rid of oil, then the country is going to be facing a legit economic depression. This is what worries me, not some gay gestapo.
I agree. I would hate Biden winning but not because he's going to put all the white men in FEMA camps like some Alex Jones conspiracy. He'd destroy the economy with endless lockdowns and confused energy policies and revoke Trump's efforts to flush out critical race theory nonsense which is weakening the country, but that would just result in the USA losing its greatness and superpower status, not the start of some kind of far fetched communist dictatorship.

It's an odd situation where I sort of agree with the melodramatic people here, but for different reasons.
 
This is right, and yet not!

There's actually multiple factions on the left. There's the woke left, then there's the dirtbag left. The woke left like Kamala because PoC, but then there's true believers in socialism dirtbag left know she's a neoliberal.

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I disagree, because the older left is still using that Koolaid. Let's not forget that time in the Dem debates where everyone wanted to give illegals medical insurance, as if that was somehow a pressing issue to American citizens.

There is no faction on the left that's going to support the embarrassment that is Joe Biden once the Trumprage steam runs out.
 
It's for the same reason why Trump is simultaneously the biggest, tropical storm nuking idiot on Earth, and a chess grandmaster with an intellect that makes geniuses around the world blush.

Crazy how Nate disregards Michigan Wisconsin, Minnesota, and other probable Trump blockers though. If he gave Florida the same spotlight in 2016, as he's now doing with Pennsylvania...

Get out your rainbows. Now.
Pennsylvania is the tipping point state in this election. Trump almost certainly wins Florida, therefore the focus shifts to winning enough of the rust belt and Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of any state in that region. Michigan is second.

Both candidates are campaigning hard there for a reason. An interesting point is that Biden's campaign, dodgy as it is, is also focused on winning those tipping point rust belt states and isn't really buying into the Blue Texas meme people like Nate Silver were pushing at one point, which makes me wonder what all these weird Biden +10 polls were about when even his campaign clearly doesn't believe them.
 

Nate Silver: "Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog"​


So... Trump's going to be crushed by the overwhelming power of Biden's enormous support base and 90% chance to win, and yet the entire election comes down to whether or not Biden wins virtually the only state he's bothered to campaign in. Nate how the fuck is Biden simultaneously the overpowering, landslide candidate and completely dependent on a single state that keeps him from becoming the pitiful underdog candidate?

Why the fuck does anyone listen to this bald spot on stilts?
Nate Zirconium is hedging his bets. He got a lot of pushback from the Left when Trump won and then weaseled out of it by claiming he gave Trump like a 10-15% chance or something. If Trump wins, he gets to pull his numbers out that supported it, and sticks around for another four years.
 
Pennsylvania is the tipping point state in this election. Trump almost certainly wins Florida, therefore the focus shifts to winning enough of the rust belt and Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of any state in that region. Michigan is second.

Both candidates are campaigning hard there for a reason. An interesting point is that Biden's campaign, dodgy as it is, is also focused on winning those tipping point rust belt states and isn't really buying into the Blue Texas meme people like Nate Silver were pushing at one point, which makes me wonder what all these weird Biden +10 polls were about when even his campaign clearly doesn't believe them.
It doesn't help when Biden went to Texas once, he was quickly bullied out of the state and some of his advisors/staff was urging people to not believe the polls.

Though it seems Biden has gotten a bit defensive in some of his stops as his recent stops in Minnesota say a lot about his campaign.
 


Screenshot_2020-11-01 Marc E Elias on Twitter 🚨BREAKING Texas Supreme Court DENIES Rep….png

Anyone have more info about these 126,000 ballots in Harris County?
 
Here's an intersting article that's at least tangentially related to this coming election and what comes afterward:




Any thoughts on this? Where does the GOP go after Trump?
Hopefully flushed. The good news, is even if Trump loses, there's not going to be a "maybe you should suck off minorities/women more" push like 2012 did and what 2016 certainly would have been. Depending on how badly Biden/Harris bungle the country's future, you could be looking at some new candidates more like the "RWDS Trump" the media imagined.
 
Didn't AOC play Among Us a little while ago? There seems to be a recent trend of Democrats trying to appear as the cool hip party but a lot of the pandering doesn't come off as genuine, almost as bad as their attempts to meme.

All this focus on games makes me believe even more that one day we'll actually get Trump mentioning GamerGate. I'm still waiting for the minecraft playthrough with Barron showing Trump the ropes, have some family bonding while building a Trump Tower.
Fuck that Trump would build a wall "A big beautiful wall!"
 
Also, it feels to me like our disagreement is more about whether the older left actually drank the Koolaid and got disillusioned, versus me thinking they never drank it.
This is a good summary, though I'd note its not an either or. The disagreement is even more specific than that, its whether the MAJORITY were disillusioned or never drinkers. I don't think either of us would assert that the other camp does not exist, merely disagree on which side is the majority. I could definitely craft a few good arguments for your side, though I do hold mine is closer.
 
It's for the same reason why Trump is simultaneously the biggest, tropical storm nuking idiot on Earth, and a chess grandmaster with an intellect that makes geniuses around the world blush.

Crazy how Nate disregards Michigan Wisconsin, Minnesota, and other probable Trump blockers though. If he gave Florida the same spotlight in 2016, as he's now doing with Pennsylvania...

Get out your rainbows. Now.
Pennsylvania and the Rust Belt could go 60% for Trump and every news outlet except Fox would refuse to call the states for Trump because of the postal votes.
 
This is a good summary, though I'd note its not an either or. The disagreement is even more specific than that, its whether the MAJORITY were disillusioned or never drinkers. I don't think either of us would assert that the other camp does not exist, merely disagree on which side is the majority. I could definitely craft a few good arguments for your side, though I do hold mine is closer.

My thought is that if they actually had a come-to-Jesus moment, the Dems would right now not be in lockstep behind Biden, and be horrified by even false-Koolaid promises.

Maybe that's the last vestiges of my faith in humanity showing.
 
Pennsylvania and the Rust Belt could go 60% for Trump and every news outlet except Fox would refuse to call the states for Trump because of the postal votes.
I think besides Fox, CNN and the more politically neutral stations would call the states. That sounds weird to say but despite CNN being Anti-Trump, it isn't 100% on the Biden train given there were many moments where many at CNN seemed pissed at Biden throughout the campaign and also were pissed at Pelosi too.

Of course give me your rainbows but I believe that the only stations not going to call states for Trump are the far left news like NBC.
 
Biden is not going to win Florida man. Holy shit.
Yeah, he won't. Which is a really bad sign for his campaign, Florida has been a bellwether state for decades now, if Trump and Biden are tied there in the official(biased)polling, Trump will likely win Florida again. Which means that Biden's campaign is doing a lot worse than the media would like you to think.
 
I think besides Fox, CNN and the more politically neutral stations would call the states. That sounds weird to say but despite CNN being Anti-Trump, it isn't 100% on the Biden train given there were many moments where many at CNN seemed pissed at Biden throughout the campaign and also were pissed at Pelosi too.

Of course give me your rainbows but I believe that the only stations not going to call states for Trump are the far left news like NBC.

CNN has already called Michigan for Biden based on the early voting.
 
Seriously, I will be surprised as hell if Biden takes Florida at this point. The state looks like Trump is going to easily win it.

If Trump manages to win Florida by over 3%, then I think that's going to be a good indicator of how the trends will go for the rest of the night. I just don't see a President-Elect Biden happening if Trump takes Florida by a comfortable margin. No way would Florida be an outlier among the rest of the electorate ... Historically, that is simply not how elections go.
 
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