2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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My best-case scenario prediction.
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I want to question one thing; are we underestimating how much IPEV will eat into election day turnout for Trump? The man himself ends most campaign ads with 'vote early and in person'.

It's all well and good that the gap is smallish, but it still needs to be closed on election day. Historical precedence seems useless given that this year's race has mutiple unique modifiers (COVID, TDS).
 
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Tour of Italy said:
You know I shitpost about the election a lot, and I've been engaged at arms length on an abstract political level. It's appealing to root for your team, to argue, to think about things in a theoretical sense.

But it dawned on me this evening that my employer had a rough year. Things are just barely starting to pick up in our industry, and if Biden follows Europe like an idiot and mandates another lockdown (or even gives my dumbshit Dem governor enough of an excuse), then there's a very real possibility that I can lose my job.

So yeah, fuck Biden for real, this can't happen. It's about me and my family now and my vote just took on an entirely different meaning.

I suspect that a number of people doing that same grim calculus right now who weren't as convinced as me to start with. I can only hope there are more of them than there are privileged dumbasses willing to fuck over the lower classes for their own fucked idea of virtue.
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This is one of the most important issues to me when I go to vote for Trump in two days. Trump has done alot of policies I like.

But wait now I don't want a second shutdown and this country can't handle a second one. Biden and the dems are too stupid to see that. Trump does actually, so thats my main issue for me voting for him wait now
 
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PeeveTheSheev said:
I want to question one thing; are we underestimating how much IPEV will eat into election day turnout for Trump? The man himself ends most campaign ads with 'vote early and in person'.

It's all well and good that the gap is smallish, but it still needs to be closed on election day. Historical precedence seems useless given that this year's race has mutiple unique modifiers (COVID, TDS).
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The Dems themselves are freaking out, because one of those modifiers (COVID) mainly negatively affects them, and mainly negatively affects in-person voting.

They will not turn out Election Day, because they traditionally do not and they are scared of COVID.

The fact we are seeing a 1% D-R gap in early voting is ludicrous. Floridian independents went R in 2016, any idea that they're disproportionately Biden is likely to be a fantasy; assuming Biden is 500k ahead because of independents is extremely optimistic.
 
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Meat Target said:
My best-case scenario prediction.
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Personally I see Trump keeping Wisconsin and/or Michigan due to his more heavy emphasis on the working class and Michael Moore panicking about a Trump victory. Say what you will about Moore, but he is more in touch with Michigan compared to most democrats. Wisconsin could still be red due to the riots but Wisconsin is an unpredictable beast.
 
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JosephStalin said:
If it doesn't exist, you make it happen.

I try to pump up every young person I meet who seems worth a shit. Tell them as long as they don't disqualify themselves by their own actions or lack thereof, there's no limit to the opportunities available. Provide examples of things I did, jobs I never even knew existed. But since I never disqualified myself I could take on those opportunities. Tell them the opportunities will be different, being a different time, but they're going to be there.

And if someone offers a job that seems weird or tough - jump on it! You were offered the job because the person offering knew you could do it, and do it well. Furthermore, such jobs can be the very best of all - make your own job! Have had several like that. When you make your own job, you have a lot of leeway in what you do and how you do it. Often your boss is busy themselves and cannot provide much specific direction, but gives you a general mission statement, such as "Get the systems in and get them in right." Job something for which you have no training? Don't sweat it. Your boss realizes that. Know what you know. Know what you don't know. Know who knows what you don't know, and here your boss will have some people for you to hook up with. This also means the boss knows you are still learning. But when you work hard, you sure can learn a lot pretty quickly.

Greatness lies within all of us. When you help others realize that, and get them pumped up to get out there and achieve greatness, you're displaying your own greatness. Nothing like watching the face of a young person that's "getting it". And it's funny...when you help others, you help yourself.

Not rocket science, folks.
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IDC how often we say it, I love you and your wonderfulness Grandpa Joe :,)

I voted today, and I'm sure I pissed a few people off by voting Democrat locally and republican nationally. My presidential vote went to Donald... Duck. I'm bad at lying and I don't want to lie to my friends when they ask me who I voted for, this way I can say, "Well I didn't vote for Trump," without having to vote for literal traitor Biden or a 3rd party candidate I knew nothing about. I'm sure the truth will come out a year from now, and by then I'll be comfortable with giving them depression by talking about Hunter Biden's Laptop and wheeling & dealing. They'll be saddened by a democratic loss, there's no need to poke the sleeping dog and make it worse. I live in Florida, so I'm not worried about a big democratic turnout or anything.

I vote blue most years but holy fucking shit do the dems need to be bitchslapped. I hope you guys are correct on cannibalism because even on the micro level I'm sick of trying to develop indie video games and being surrounded by brain dead commies who care less about games and more about messages. If I have to suffer through another indie clique becoming an anti-capitalist shithole I will explode on the inside.
Most public eye democratic leaders are retarded. I hope they fucking straighten themselves out these next 4 years.
 
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PeeveTheSheev said:
I want to question one thing; are we underestimating how much IPEV will eat into election day turnout for Trump? The man himself ends most campaign ads with 'vote early and in person'.

It's all well and good that the gap is smallish, but it still needs to be closed on election day. Historical precedence seems useless given that this year's race has mutiple unique modifiers (COVID, TDS).
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It's a good point, but Republicans are historically more election day voters. Yes, Trump is encouraging people to vote IPEV, and really hardcores are doing it, but I would be surprised if the overall Election Day turnout is D+.

You're right that nobody really knows how much EV is cannibalizing Trumps ED turnout, but we also don't know how Independents who have already voted have broken, and we also don't know how many crossover votes exist in the vote already banked. I suspect more registered Dems will vote for Trump than registered GOP will vote Biden. Trump's in-party popularity is off the charts, and Biden's isn't as high as that.
 
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PeeveTheSheev said:
I want to question one thing; are we underestimating how much IPEV will eat into election day turnout for Trump? The man himself ends most campaign ads with 'vote early and in person'.

It's all well and good that the gap is smallish, but it still needs to be closed on election day. Historical precedence seems useless given that this year's race has mutiple unique modifiers (COVID, TDS).
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At least in my neck of the woods, early voting is largely ignored by Republicans unless they absolutely cannot make it. Voting itself is made sort of a family event, you get everyone in the car, go vote, then go out somewhere nice to eat. Election day is fucking killer here for restaurant sales.
 
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RockPaper said:
It's a good point, but Republicans are historically more election day voters. Yes, Trump is encouraging people to vote IPEV, and really hardcores are doing it, but I would be surprised if the overall Election Day turnout is D+.

You're right that nobody really knows how much EV is cannibalizing Trumps ED turnout, but we also don't know how Independents who have already voted have broken, and we also don't know how many crossover votes exist in the vote already banked. I suspect more registered Dems will vote for Trump than registered GOP will vote Biden. Trump's in-party popularity is off the charts, and Biden's isn't as high as that.
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In 2016, Trump led Independents 46-42 from what I saw.
 
PeeveTheSheev said:
I want to question one thing; are we underestimating how much IPEV will eat into election day turnout for Trump? The man himself ends most campaign ads with 'vote early and in person'.

It's all well and good that the gap is smallish, but it still needs to be closed on election day. Historical precedence seems useless given that this year's race has mutiple unique modifiers (COVID, TDS).
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I am voting for Trump on election day. Some family members voting early. But most are waiting on Tuesday
 
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Aidan said:
Talk radio is much younger and is also much less established. I'm not saying the Republicans haven't tried to do the same, I'm saying the left-leaning bodies are much more established and just generally more prevalent. The trope of Republicans being out of touch old white men isn't really far from the truth and their media for a long time reflected that.

edit: Forgot to mention the NY Post thing imo is more due to the internet and Streissand effect more than it is the Republicans doing their part. If you want to see a true reflection of the media's grasp on the flow of information, talk to a non-internet-nerd about Kenosha.
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Kenosha thing is completely true, as well as people I've talked to not knowing that riots happened after July at the latest.
 
RockPaper said:
I believe you, but right now even if we want to guess, it's still a blind item. We only know the number cast.
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I think this:


...is right when it comes to the Independent breakdown based on county. The IPEV looks extremely good for Trump, even on Independents.

Also of relevance, from that guy:

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Again, today was the last day of Souls to the Polls. The fact it barely helped Dems is basically why Biden is probably finished in Florida.
 
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