2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Make Anime Illegal said:
That's what statistics is for most of the time. Only idiots act like statistics is the gold standard of knowledge, in reality it's something you resort to. We use it when we want to fool ourselves into thinking we're doing mathematics but we can't use probability theory.

All of the great sciences not only existed, but became extremely successful well before anything like null hypothesis statistical testing.
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As the saying goes, "lies, damned lies, and statistics".
 
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Caustic Gelatin said:
Now we won't have federal agents kicking down peoples doors screaming "YOU ARE UNDER ARREST FOR THE CRIME OF VOTING ORANGE HITLER". But I do worry about the amount of people that seem like they are salivating at the idea of being able to persecute people either because "our side won now to finish off the Nazis" or "our side lost we are the revolutionary freedom fighters". I bet there is a significant overlap of people who screech endlessly about how Trump is going to be building concentration camp for trannys, and people who demand that all those red-neck Trumpist need to be hauled away to a government work camp or some such nonsense.
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European Police in Coordinated Raids Against Online Hate Speech​

That is not as far-fetched as it sounds. Wrongthink is a very serious crime in some places.
 
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spent the past hour writing this up and I hope it'll be useful. Of course, this election will be unique due to all the voting by mail, but we should be able to compare the Florida and North Carolina results because those states will count both mail in votes and early in-person votes and election day votes quickly

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A summary of how election night 2016 played out from 7:00PM to midnight. You may want to use this as reference for election night 2020 and any other election night.

I've used the 4plebs archive at archive.4plebs.org/pol/ to dig into posts from /pol/ from election night to see the results they shared at each point in time, and I also used the NYTimes 2016 Live forecast pages to assess how margins for the race changed as the night went on.

From 7:00PM EST to 8:00PM EST Trump and Hillary exchanged leads multiple times in Florida

Let's start with this screenshot of Florida results from 7:09PM EST, as you can see they were disproportionately from Trump friendly areas.

7:09PM EST-->http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478650145203.png

At 7:22PM EST, here is how the results in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Virginia looked like: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478651005723.png

At 7:28PM EST, here is how the FL map looked. Notice all the counties that hadn't come in yet.: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478651404742.png

it took only less than four minutes later, at 7:32PM, for Trump and Hillary to trade leads: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478651584255.png

7:40PM EST, Virginia, Trump still had a double digit lead: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652018941.png

7:45PM EST, Florida. As you can see, Trump had a sizeable (by FL standards) 3 point lead: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652410969.png

and here is how the overall map looked at 7:50PM EST: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652642718.png

by 7:52PM EST however, Hillary jumped ahead to a 3 point lead: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478652906594.jpg

at 7:56PM EST, here was the overall map: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478653166699.png

by 8:03PM, Trump started to close in to only 1 point behind Hillary in Florida: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478653383661.png

at 8:09PM EST, Hillary had a substantial 9 point lead in Ohio: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478653818684.png

at 8:13PM EST, Hillary had a small lead in Texas: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478654010410.png

here is how the overall map looked like at 8:14PM EST: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478654056920.jpg

at 8:25PM EST, Hillary had a 6 point lead in North Carolina: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478654718942.jpg

and by 8:30PM EST, Trump had regained the lead over Hillary in Florida. He retained the lead from here on out until he won the state: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478655265693.png

here is how the map looked like at 8:47PM EST: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478656156261.png . Hillary was leading in North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, but those leads were all because there was a disproportionate amount coming from blue areas.

by 9:01PM EST Trump gained the lead in Ohio and kept it until he won the state, and was only around 1 point behind in North Carolina: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478656978494.png

Trump took the lead in North Carolina around 9:04PM EST and kept it until he won the state: http://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1478657091879.png

Trump also took the lead in Michigan around 9:13PM EST and kept it until he won the state

Aside for a few minutes early in the 9PM hour, Trump quickly took the lead in Wisconsin around 9:15PM EST and kept it until he won the state

At 9:30PM EST, the NYTimes Election Needle projected a 50% chance that Trump would win
At 9:48PM EST, the needle projected it at a 59% chance
at around 9:58PM EST, Hillary took the lead in Virginia and kept it until she won that state, but by this point it seemed obvious that Trump was going to win and did not need Virginia because of his leads in the rust belt
At 10:06PM EST, the needle projected it at a 69% chance
at 10:14PM EST, the needle projected it at a 73% chance
at 10:45PM EST, the needle projected it at a 92% chance
at 11:00PM EST, the needle projected it at a >95% chance

at 12:08AM EST, November 9, Trump took the lead in Pennsylvania and kept it until he won the state
 
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1604432233843-png.1704271

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The Pennsylvania AG deserves the wall..

EDIT: I mean, look at this guy!
https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1323625984004886528 (archive)
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He knows, and he's really relying on the mail-ins.
 

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OttoWest said:
Like I said, it surprised me! I saw more signage there than in Knoxville, but that may be because Knox County goes reliably red. Cookeville has at least three hilarious, massive Trump billboards on I-40 including a close up of that Hunter Biden pic where he looks passed out with a cigarette in his mouth.
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Lol, I saw the huge Trump billboards but not the Hunter one. I saw the picture someone posted but not in person.
It was really weird going from Portland-lite to giant Trump signs on every road.

My sister says that Chatt is more purple/less red than Knox, despite both being college towns. Maybe it's the proximity to Asheville. Wasn't Asheville the first to allow trannies in bathrooms? They increased the tax for it to go to some "BIPOC ONLY" fund. Place is nuts, glad I won't have to go back anymore. It's a shame, since I liked how dog friendly it was. Though sometimes it was almost *too* dog friendly, iykwim.
 
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What pisses me off the most about the updates on voting integrity malarkey happening live is that, because of the Democrats' open willingness to cheat in any way they can, it's impossible to know if any issues are genuine or if they're part of the overall effort to remove Trump.
My election day goggles are "Everything that affects the voter is part of mass conspiracy to remove drumpf" when it's more likely quite a few incidents, if not the majority, are just things going wrong as they tend to do.
 
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Inventor of the Telephone said:

European Police in Coordinated Raids Against Online Hate Speech​

That is not as far-fetched as it sounds. Wrongthink is a very serious crime in some places.
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Countries that have no history of anything like the first amendment, yes. That doesn't mean Biden could revoke it by snapping his fingers.
legalkochi said:
It's not gonna work. Trump voters are gonna vote no matter the obstacle
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Also the current judiciary leans R now so these people are really playing with fire if they try anything too outrageous.
 
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Caustic Gelatin said:
Just the other day I overheard a (surprise surprise white college age) girl saying "I am going to laugh when the FBI shows up to every Trump supporters house". That along with the dude that hangs out at my local nerd hang-out that claimed he makes notes about what houses have Trump signs, is worrying. People have gone straight up loony-tunes crazy over this shit.

Now we won't have federal agents kicking down peoples doors screaming "YOU ARE UNDER ARREST FOR THE CRIME OF VOTING ORANGE HITLER". But I do worry about the amount of people that seem like they are salivating at the idea of being able to persecute people either because "our side won now to finish off the Nazis" or "our side lost we are the revolutionary freedom fighters". I bet there is a significant overlap of people who screech endlessly about how Trump is going to be building concentration camp for trannys, and people who demand that all those red-neck Trumpist need to be hauled away to a government work camp or some such nonsense.

I suppose if you holocaust the holocausters before they can holocaust you can prevent the holocaust in their minds.
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You need to report that guy to Homeland Security
 
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JambledUpWords said:
People really think that if Biden wins that glow-in-the-darks will really start harassing individual Trump voters at their homes? I swear, people like this really overestimate the power the federal government has. Also, doing that would be a losing strategy and any group that wants to retain their power should know that intimidation and harassment has the opposite effect on most people.
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Here's a secret: the glow-in-the-darks all have friends and families. I know the movies show James Bond with zero acquaintances but a federal agent needs enough social skills to function outside the house, which means that they have at least one friend/family member who gives a shit about him/her (and vice versa). The feds are not going to hire a Sheldon Cooper-type to bust up cartels.

No glow-in-the-dark is going to kick in doors for voting for Orange Man, because they know how quickly that shit can boomerang and affect their friends and family. Let's not forget that those orders would have to come from someone who also has friends and family. Are you seriously going to tell your team of veteran federal LEOs to start stringing up white people for being on the wrong side of history when they probably know everything about you and your family, and that you could be on the wrong side of history 4 years from now? I don't think so.
 
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Inventor of the Telephone said:

Right-wing media accuse Pennsylvania’s attorney general of rigging the election — because he called for all votes to be counted​

Media Matters says you CHUDS need to stop whining.
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Funny, I want all votes to be counted too. Lets not pull any of this funny business with the machines, shall we?

I also want all VALID votes to be counted. None of this shit with counting votes without post marks. The fuck guys. Can you at least TRY to look honest?
 
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CrippleThreat said:
1604432233843-png.1704271

View attachment 1704270

The Pennsylvania AG deserves the wall..

EDIT: I mean, look at this guy!
https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1323625984004886528 (archive)
View attachment 1704277

He knows, and he's really relying on the mail-ins.
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Crossing my fingers:
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Regardless, if anyone sees anything out of the ordinary- report and record.

1604433075698.png
 
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Kornheiser said:
When does the rioting start?
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Late May, 2020, though the beta was dropped in 2014 with Fetguson.
Caustic Gelatin said:
Just the other day I overheard a (surprise surprise white college age) girl saying "I am going to laugh when the FBI shows up to every Trump supporters house". That along with the dude that hangs out at my local nerd hang-out that claimed he makes notes about what houses have Trump signs, is worrying. People have gone straight up loony-tunes crazy over this shit.

Now we won't have federal agents kicking down peoples doors screaming "YOU ARE UNDER ARREST FOR THE CRIME OF VOTING ORANGE HITLER". But I do worry about the amount of people that seem like they are salivating at the idea of being able to persecute people either because "our side won now to finish off the Nazis" or "our side lost we are the revolutionary freedom fighters". I bet there is a significant overlap of people who screech endlessly about how Trump is going to be building concentration camp for trannys, and people who demand that all those red-neck Trumpist need to be hauled away to a government work camp or some such nonsense.

I suppose if you holocaust the holocausters before they can holocaust you can prevent the holocaust in their minds.
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These people miss a couple of key points:

1. They are more reliant on conservatives and moderates than the other way around. You can't cut mom and dad out of your life if their paying your rent still.

2. There are a ton of conservatives. Good luck waging war against 60 million.

3. Law enforcement is heavily right wing. Even leftwing police are probably only loosely aligned with the revolutionary left.

4. Right wingers have guns. They have dildoes and bongs. Even if they do have a gun, it's a greater liability to them than their target. See the black militias who friendly fired because they don't have any idea how to handle guns.

5. Scenario B ends November 4th. The right has been very restrained, but that ends very soon regardless who wins. We've had enough riots, enough lockdowns, and enough fake news. There will be no more Russian investigations. Even iron rods can be ground to needles.
 
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