- Joined
- Jul 7, 2015
Trump will do the same or slightly worse with blacks, the same or slightly better with Hispanics, and will win on the suburban white vote like Republicans always do. There’s no reason to believe wild fantasies about a minority swing to Trump that I can see, other than a few cherry-picked polls.
I’ve seen that take from all sorts of people lately and it reeks of cope. Conservatives don’t want to admit demographic change will doom the GOP.
It looks like I was wrong. He did do substantially better with minorities. But, a couple things:
1. Trump still needs whites to win and shouldn’t take them for granted. The gap with minorities is now smaller but still a pretty big gap, and if he kept his same ground with white men or improved, he’d be in a much better place rn. It’d be 2012 GOP autopsy-level stupid to depend on minorities to win this.
2. It’s an unusual election year: Lockdowns, riots, and neither candidate mentioning immigration much would skew Hispanics for Trump higher than usual. Shouldn’t assume trends of gains with minorities this year (or many other trends) will continue under more normal circumstances.
3. Think about the policy implications: If they’re doing better with Hispanics, GOP might be inclined to lighten up on immigration as they wanted to do pre-Trump (as their corporate donor class wants cheap labor). Compromise on amnesty, DACA, etc. might be incoming. Is it worth it?
4. Demographic change has implications beyond red vs blue. There’s an audience for Trump-type RW populist caudillos in Latin America too, but those places are shitholes regardless. If the future of America is corrupt and incompetent Hecho-en-Mexico Trump ripoffs sandwiched between the typical 3rd world mix of bloodthirsty tinpot communists/foreign intelligence puppets, that’s cold comfort to me.
A lot of people want an easy narrative from results so far where idpol is defeated and we don’t have to think about that icky race stuff ever again. But IMO it’s not that simple.
(To be fair, I think it’s quite possible dem fraud efforts could target white male ballots specifically)