A Cardboard Box
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- Oct 8, 2019
Do-overs won't happen. There's a couple possible long shot paths to victory, however he doesn't need a specific person doing a specific thing. Mail in ballots have been rejected at historically low rates, like less than 1% compared to 4-9% on average. Part of a judicial recount is verifying the ballots themselves to make sure they are kosher. It is within the realm of possibility for a significant number of mail in ballots to be tossed due to incompetence.Unless Trump finds a specific person who has committed a specific criminal action that has had a wide enough impact on the state's election outcome to warrant a total do-over for that state, Biden has won. A head needs to roll for this to change. Someone needs to go to jail for there to be enough of a problem in this election to do a state over.
We don't have the final tally from either AZ or NV. Nevada is close, and the Trump campaign is relatively sure they can flip Reno, which they claim would give them a win by less than 5k votes. If Trump wins the remaining votes in AZ 58/42 he takes the state, and the last two batches released have tracked just north of that. Phoenix is tapped out, but the suburbs and rural areas in Maricopa Co are still producing ballots to be counted. Overall I give the election probably 80/20 odds favoring Biden.