It's not any one specific thing that gets my attention so much as it is everything on the whole. I know I've probably already shat out a text wall about it but when everything is put under the same tent, it really doesn't make any sense. It's definitely within the realm of possibility, but when you take it as a whole instead of as isolated incidents, this would be the most improbable election in the history of this country, bordering on impossible.
1) Trump received more votes than any incumbent in a re-election bid in history. Population growth is all well and good, but upwards of 75 million votes is still fucking massive. That's more than 10 million than he had in the previous election, and the third-largest leap for any incumbent in the history of the country.
2) 95% of Republicans voted for him--it was basically unanimous--and he improved his totals with every single single demographic save for white men, but that fell only a small amount compared to the huge leaps he'd made in other demographics--such as black men-- where he gained more than 50% of his previous base. Joe Biden, meanwhile, fell well beneath 90% for many of the minority groups, which is far beneath the threshold where Democrats need to excel in order to win an election. It's basically a guaranteed loss.
3) Biden has the absolute lowest number of counties ever recorded for a "victorious" President at 524, even lower than Obama's previous 'record' of 873, and yet regardless of this, Biden somehow topped Obama's 2008 election by almost 20 million votes. The vast majority of these votes come from the cities, specifically the swing states that are currently being contested, cities with very large minority populations, which Joe Biden had an absolutely abysmal turnout with all across the country with the exception of these, specific cities.
4) Biden has somehow accomplished this without any gains whatsoever down-ballot. A "blow-out" candidate always has some measure of success for candidates that are down-ballot, leading to spikes in local, state, House and Senate elections. None of this occurred. Democrats lost every single contested election this year, and lost seats in the Senate and the House.
5) Trump, meanwhile, had a massive amount of down-ballot support, as the GOP has won every single contested seat that was up for grabs this year. All 27 of them flipped or maintained Red, even though every single one of them was supposed to be competitive. This is a pattern that you only see in candidates who have a massive victory and drag everyone else along "on their coat-tails", and yet Trump allegedly lost. The GOP did not lose a single state legislature, and actually gained seats at the state level.
6) The "Bellweather States" swung further in Trump's direction in this election than his previous one. Joe Biden didn't win a single one of them, and these states have been an accurate predictor for the Presidential election since 1852. The only President who lost his election with the 'support' of the Bellweather States was Richard Nixon in 1960, meaning it's not impossible, but it is very improbable.
7) Historically, states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin swing in the same direction as Iowa and Ohio, and Ohio tends to follow suit with Florida. With very few exceptions in a few scattered cities, Trump swept up the 'Rust Belt' in this election. Yet, Biden's lead and his "victory" in these three states is due to a massive outpouring of minority votes in Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. This support is exclusive to these cities, and was not reproduced anywhere else in the nation, only in the specific cities that Biden "needed" to win.
I do not think it is statistically probable that Joe Biden won this election. Every measurable metric that determines a loss or a victory was completely upended. He had horribly low minority support, and yet he "won." He failed to capture any Bellweather states, and yet he "won." He had absolutely no down-ballot support and lost his party every single contested election, and yet he "won."
Individually, none of these things are
too strange. Elections have been won in the past with one or two of these scenarios not playing out in the candidate's favour, but there has never been an election where
every single possible indicator has swung into the negative, and had the candidate come out on top, let alone come out on top so far that they completely
demolish all of the previous records, including the record that was just set by their
opponent in that election.
