Ahh yeah that's a pretty good point.
Thanks for bringing me back down to reality.
My goal is not to cheerleader for either side, but to give an analysis of it based on reality. As much as 2020 and Clown World will allow.
Should SCOTUS officially take this up, one simple thing is true of both sides. Whoever wins will -need- to purge the other side. So if SCOTUS does take it up proper, its going to be a no-holds barred.
And I wouldn't bet on either side.
Up till now, the right has been mobilizing on a federal level, and the left has mostly ignored it and left it to the states to work it out with some mild to moderate assistance here and there from the federal level. This means a few things, good and bad, for both sides.
The GOP is already motivated, mobilized, and has had its arguments vetted, honed, and they have had time to make a lot of backroom deals for the counterattack by the left. But, that means they have also been spending their political capital. Their 'reserves' have taken a hit, and may be drained at this point. Additionally, as the attacking party, they are in a position of disadvantage having to argue every point and make ground.
The DEMs are the opposite, very demotivated due to a lackluster candidate and they have had very little in the way of vetting. Their aligned judges simply throwing everything out hurts them in this regard. Additionally, Trump was never meant to fight this and they have very little in the way of mobilization. But, they also have spent almost none of their political capital. They have more room to menuever. Additionally, they are the defending party. They already have the point, and need only withstand the attack.
Who wins largely will be based on who gains and keeps control off all (not just some, all) three levers of power here.
1: SCOTUS, can they be convinced to back off, how much do they have a personal or ideological stake in the game, is there any way to make a deal or move political capital in a way to either incentise an action or punish an action?
2: The State Legislatures. its a SCOTUS case, why does this matter? Simple, if the SLs are leaning towards a direction it directly leads SCOTUS to accepting it as it would reduce chaos to have a unified option. Reduce, not eliminate. The key goal in mind here is "The Road of Less Chaos". Immense pressure will be places on these legislature, the right to firm them up the left to sow discontent.
3: The Federal Legislature. The Georgia Runoff could prove... interesting if the case lasts long enough, so to could indicators of who is likely to win the senate. Ironically, this one is inversed from what you'd expect. If it looks likely for the Republicans to win the Runoff, SCOTUS is LESS incentive to assist Trump since the chance of court packing is reduced. Conversely, if it looks likely to go DEM or to TIE, SCOTUS feels pressure to side with Trump to avoid court packing. Additionally, SCOTUS will consider it from an accountability angle. A Senate controlled by the winner's other party is more likely to prevent any serious overreaches and reduce the chance of the chaos escalating in the short term.