I know I'm a bit late to the party on this but it's interesting so lemme throw in my two pennies.
1) More competent competition....
2) Big yabs. ...
Honestly though, I think the big genius stroke of Cover's approach is that it seems to attract NEET girls like a liquor store staffed entirely by cats. That gives them a lot of room to keep talents in the slave pits instead of causing trouble.
I mostly agree with you on this except for the idea of a "more competent idol agency." The Japanese are, culturally, very slow to change and this especially impacts established companies and corporations. An idol agency that tries to run a Vtuber brand precisely the same as they do their actual idols won't be as successful because it will come off as very corporate in comparison. I think this is why the novelty of Kizuna Ai, the upd8 talents, etc. wore off and while they still maintain viewers, a lot of people have gotten bored with them. There's a degree of authenticity with Holo and Niji that isn't quite as present in some of the other stuff I've seen. Holo has a leash but it isn't as short as an actual idol agency and that gives them breathing room to bring that authenticity forward. Niji's leash is even longer.
What could be a threat is a more competent and new agency that watched Cover and Niji closely, learned from their mistakes, and performs the streamer-idol balance better than Holo does.
Other than that, what Rezza said is spot on. Especially about the Korean monster.
1. Parasocial relationship. ... As soon as things return to normal, there's a chance that hololive viewership will drop off since people won't feel the need to watch streamers and will save their money for things to do with their friends.
Well, with the Great Reset stuff, it's up for grabs if the new normal isn't here to stay to some extent. I don't know how much of that is conspiracy theory tinfoil hat shit or legit agenda. Either way, though, I think this is true--these girls have actually helped people get over depression from being isolated due to lockdowns. At the same time, the parasocial relationships have cultivated a lot of unhealthy mindsets in some viewers leading to all sorts of ridiculous behavior. More fodder for this place, I guess.
2. The anime industry is currently a shitshow. ... Because these girls are in a way unpredictable, they're seen as much more entertaining than the boring dreck of a predictable anime, and weebs need their fix of cute girls doing cute things.
I agree, anime has been slumping. Oversaturation, the bottlenecking of the licensing industry, and the death of independent fansubbing communities has not helped the Western consumer interest either. I know a ton of people who basically stopped watching anime once Hololive hit the scene, including myself. I have no idea how most anitubers are doing but I do know one or two lolcows (some of whom have threads here) are plummeting into the abyss, both psychologically and in sub counts. Anime has been oversaturated for almost 10 years, at this point. The general impression I have is that anime is going to eventually retreat into being a super-niche thing and in ten or twenty years, the only shit coming over and licensed will be kids' stuff. Honestly, I think Hololive just accelerated this by providing competition. And that's the thing--Hololive is competition for anime if you think about it.
This has been something that has been in the back of my mind for a while, but if Hololive/Cover insists on staying apolitical no matter what (which is refreshing nowadays), would a charity stream go against their apolitical stance? I am aware that at some point Debiru from Nijisanji was allowed to donate to help koalas affected by the Australian fires (the "i will donate x amount of money based on the number of RTs i get" kinda deal), but is that an exception rather than the norm?
It is basic Japanese culture to be apolitical in public. If you want to find out what an individual thinks about controversial topics, you have to really get to know them, first. They've got a very "don't rock the boat" mentality. There are youtube channels of Japanese people being polled on the street to give their opinions about things but if you pay close attention, you'll notice how they are very careful with how they describe sensitive and controversial stances. Japanese companies don't get political publicly because that is very bad optics over there. BLM already has extremely bad optics in Japan and the Japanese have a very "our country's politics are none of your business" mindset. Even overtly political fiction tends to avoid portraying one side or the other as obviously good or evil.
So, short answer: I doubt they will ever get overtly political.
I give them 3-5 more years assuming there's nothing stopping their growth and most people stayed watching Hololive after the pandemic. One big advantage for Hololive is their English branch and there's no competitor for now. Nijisanji is late to the party and they are less popular than Hololive. VShojo could never compete with Hololive unless a miracle occurs.
Mostly agree. Like SALTE said, VShojo fans are mostly young as hell. They're also pretty niche. They'll grow out of it within a year or two. VShojo doesn't stand a chance, long-term. It won't be able to compete, the kids will get tired of the fad, and the organization is so full of lolcows it will inevitably self-destruct at some point.
But of course, controversy will exists. It is up to Cover to learn their damn mistakes because who knows, maybe in 2021 there's someone in the West complaining about Hololive talents not being [insert something not progressive] or some leaks that could danger the reputation of both the talent itself and Cover. But for now, the future is bright (maybe).
Cover went after Venti's vids that called Gura fans pedos. They're figuring out that they have to protect themselves and their talents from political activists. Worst-comes-to-worst, if the activists get bad enough, Hololive EN will get cut like Hololive CN but that is an absolute WORST case scenario and I doubt it will happen. The EN girls are keeping politics out of their streams and not responding to political trolling in chat (from what I've seen).
The Japanese have, until now, remained blissfully unaware of the various activist communities and networks that have seized power in many Western media companies. Those few Japanese who warned of Western money destroying anime and gaming were laughed into silence. Recent events, however, especially on the part of Sony, seem to have exonerated a couple of those guys and from what I can tell, more and more Japanese otaku and fans of various games have started realizing that Western activists are a threat. The number of Japanese who have taken notice still seems small but I think it may be growing.
There's a controversial political cause like trans right and BLM, and then there's a cause that basically everyone would accepted like helping animals survive, barring exception for some species like sharks or whales for the Japanese
The Japanese don't like causes that rock the boat. Despite BL and yuri media, the Japanese basically don't publicly acknowledge gay or trans behavior because it isn't conformist. They don't really overtly oppress them but rather ignore them (which can, indeed, be just as bad in such a community-centric society). In Japan, the nail that sticks up gets hammered down. Besides, after the student riots of the 1960s and the
Asama-Sanso Incident, the Japanese have become extremely low-key and gradualist in their pushes for reform. The sort of riots, protests, and activism in the West will only anger the Japanese and have the opposite effect. The Japanese don't really talk much about these groups and lobbies but from what I can tell, they really do not like them. There's very much a "if you don't like our country, values, and culture, leave" mentality.
Therefore, I think it's safe to assume Cover won't be taking sides, politically, especially with Western politics. Besides, I think they've learned their lesson with the CN debacle.
