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- Mar 29, 2014
"Wear a mask. Help slow the spread of COVID-19."
Shut up, Google.
Shut up, Google.
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Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big
- Thread starter JosephStalin
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Honka Honka Burning Love
In Clown World, the only god is the one who Honks.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
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- Aug 29, 2019
"Welcome to Costco
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2020
I was talking to my advisor who's Italian. He said the thing in Italy is that their lockdowns post-peak were lifted to a fairly high extreme, and that once they were put back in place the response made it so that the situation became bureaucratically absurd. Like "You can be open on Christmas Eve, closed Christmas day, open the next day, closed on weekends" etc. The other issue is that there is an election coming up and Italy has a historically volatile democracy. So any further economic repression from the system could easily result in a parliament collapse in the election.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2019
In all the financial hubbub everyone's forgotten to pay attention to the little things in life....
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
God why is phone posting on this forum such a pain in the ass...
Heard my brother unironically say he wishes masks became normalized after this..... Im glad I was wearing my face diaper to hide most of the expression I made...
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- Joined
- Feb 20, 2017
Imagine if the Kung Flu is just the anti-bodies, as per the X-Files mythos
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2019
Went to the DMV and to Walmart in the midwest US today.
The DMV had a lady playing hostess, asking if there was an appointment, giving out numbers and directing people to chairs. No one could just stand, they had to sit, 6 feet apart, even if they were just there to help someone else. It felt insulting and sort of like being in kindergarten.
Walmart was Walmart. Everyone was masked but some shoppers had a serious problem understanding physics. If I am occupying a space, you cannot march up and occupy the exact same space. It's just not gonna work, sorry if that ruins your plans. I am solid, dammit.
The DMV had a lady playing hostess, asking if there was an appointment, giving out numbers and directing people to chairs. No one could just stand, they had to sit, 6 feet apart, even if they were just there to help someone else. It felt insulting and sort of like being in kindergarten.
Walmart was Walmart. Everyone was masked but some shoppers had a serious problem understanding physics. If I am occupying a space, you cannot march up and occupy the exact same space. It's just not gonna work, sorry if that ruins your plans. I am solid, dammit.
SuiSui1
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- May 4, 2020
It really does feel like we (The common folk) are being treated like children. If you speak out or question anything they shush over you or send you to the principal office. It feels like they want to punish us for electing the wrong president instead of that Witch.
- Joined
- Feb 16, 2016
So, the good news is that I may have finally gotten through to someone about the numbers being cooked. I can't go into details, but I basically laid out the case I laid out here to them.
Interestingly they mentioned that the New York Times apparently noticed the fucking cliff that cases are falling off of, and they seemed oddly receptive to the idea that the cases are down because the testing isn't fucked anymore...this of course got me curious.
So I went and found the article:
None of the proffered explanation in the article convincingly hold water from where I'm sitting.
Herd Immunity? I don't completely buy herd immunity as an adequate explanation for the entire country falling off a cliff when only Florida and South Dakota didn't do shit and thus would in theory see the benefits first. To say nothing of the fact that a large portion of the country probably has a worse immune system now than they did at the same time last year due to a serious increase in staying inside and sanitizing everything. That cliff is too damn steep and continues to plummet, but at least this explanation is based in a concept which holds water.
The notion that people are being more careful? That holds zero water for me. I've heard nothing and seen nothing to suggest anything but Biden being sworn in happened. People are doing what they did for the last few months whether that be a moonsuit and NBC filters, or literally nothing, and this is based on what we've all been seeing. Same traffic, same behaviors, same everything. The "case surge" happened directly contrary to all the fucking increases in restrictions and went well past the margin of error for case reporting lag time wise.
In conclusion, this particular big statistical coincidence might be an angle that actually works for persuasion on the previously unconvinced.
That probably has a lot to do with the fact that anyone can observe that cliff in the data which is the Official Correct Data® and the origin of the memo is the WHO, another Official Good Guy Smart Organization®, and even Official Correct News Source® The New York times deigned to notice this trend, even if they avoided the obvious explanation for the cliff.
Maybe don't link the explanation for why cases are falling off a cliff to the notion that numbers have been pumped for months for political reasons immediately, or even in the same conversation, but if you've got a good handle on explaining how PCR testing works and how that relates to the memo, that might sow some productive brain seeds.
Interestingly they mentioned that the New York Times apparently noticed the fucking cliff that cases are falling off of, and they seemed oddly receptive to the idea that the cases are down because the testing isn't fucked anymore...this of course got me curious.
So I went and found the article:
A Fall in Virus Cases
And what else you need to know today.
The United States has never experienced a sharp and sustained decline in new coronavirus cases — until, perhaps, now.
Last year, new cases in the U.S. went through cycles of rising rapidly and then leveling off or falling only modestly. That was different from the situation in many other countries, where sharp drops sometimes occurred. Look at how much bigger the declines were in Western Europe last spring and last fall than in the U.S.:
Image
Credit...By The New York Times | Sources: Governments and health agencies
But now the situation may be changing.
New cases in the U.S. have fallen 35 percent over the past three weeks. Hospitalizations have dropped, as well. Deaths have not, but they have stabilized — and the death trend typically lags the cases trend by a few weeks.
“I like the trends we are seeing, and I am personally hopeful that things are going to get better,” Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “But there are a number of things that could also go wrong.”
1. We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.
Put those two groups together, and you realize that about one-third of all Americans have at least some degree of immunity from the virus. That may be enough to begin — begin — slowing the spread, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. explained on “The Daily.”
2. More Americans may be wearing masks and staying socially distant. Many still are not, as I saw on my recent 1,600-mile road trip. But any increase in safe behavior matters.
And there are signs of change. Multiple states tightened restrictions late last year. The country just elected a president who echoes scientific advice rather than flouting it. Some Americans may also be inspired by light at the end of the tunnel.
“I’m hearing from a lot of people that one of the reasons why they’re really hunkering down now is that it would be a shame to get a severe Covid case while waiting to get the vaccine,” Dr. Lee Harrison, the chairman of a local health board, told The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette this week.
Dr. Mark Escott, who runs the a local health agency around Austin, Texas, told the CBS affiliate there: “Folks are changing behavior. Folks are wearing masks, folks are staying home, and that is resulting in these decreasing cases.”
Dr. Alex Garza, a member of a pandemic task force in St. Louis, told The Associated Press: “The fact that this is happening in the winter when respiratory viruses typically spread the most shows us just how effective all the preventative measures actually are when we use them.”
The biggest reason for concern is the newly infectious variants that could cause case numbers to surge again, especially if people become blasé about masks and distancing — or the Biden administration fails to accelerate vaccinations. And the current rate of death from Covid-19 remains horrific.
But the U.S. has it within its power to make this month a true turning point.
And what else you need to know today.
The United States has never experienced a sharp and sustained decline in new coronavirus cases — until, perhaps, now.
Last year, new cases in the U.S. went through cycles of rising rapidly and then leveling off or falling only modestly. That was different from the situation in many other countries, where sharp drops sometimes occurred. Look at how much bigger the declines were in Western Europe last spring and last fall than in the U.S.:
Image
Credit...By The New York Times | Sources: Governments and health agencies
But now the situation may be changing.
New cases in the U.S. have fallen 35 percent over the past three weeks. Hospitalizations have dropped, as well. Deaths have not, but they have stabilized — and the death trend typically lags the cases trend by a few weeks.
“I like the trends we are seeing, and I am personally hopeful that things are going to get better,” Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “But there are a number of things that could also go wrong.”
The good news
Let’s start with two possible explanations for the recent improvement:1. We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.
Put those two groups together, and you realize that about one-third of all Americans have at least some degree of immunity from the virus. That may be enough to begin — begin — slowing the spread, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. explained on “The Daily.”
2. More Americans may be wearing masks and staying socially distant. Many still are not, as I saw on my recent 1,600-mile road trip. But any increase in safe behavior matters.
And there are signs of change. Multiple states tightened restrictions late last year. The country just elected a president who echoes scientific advice rather than flouting it. Some Americans may also be inspired by light at the end of the tunnel.
“I’m hearing from a lot of people that one of the reasons why they’re really hunkering down now is that it would be a shame to get a severe Covid case while waiting to get the vaccine,” Dr. Lee Harrison, the chairman of a local health board, told The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette this week.
Dr. Mark Escott, who runs the a local health agency around Austin, Texas, told the CBS affiliate there: “Folks are changing behavior. Folks are wearing masks, folks are staying home, and that is resulting in these decreasing cases.”
Dr. Alex Garza, a member of a pandemic task force in St. Louis, told The Associated Press: “The fact that this is happening in the winter when respiratory viruses typically spread the most shows us just how effective all the preventative measures actually are when we use them.”
It could get worse again
I want to emphasize that the pandemic has not entered an inexorable decline.The biggest reason for concern is the newly infectious variants that could cause case numbers to surge again, especially if people become blasé about masks and distancing — or the Biden administration fails to accelerate vaccinations. And the current rate of death from Covid-19 remains horrific.
But the U.S. has it within its power to make this month a true turning point.
None of the proffered explanation in the article convincingly hold water from where I'm sitting.
Herd Immunity? I don't completely buy herd immunity as an adequate explanation for the entire country falling off a cliff when only Florida and South Dakota didn't do shit and thus would in theory see the benefits first. To say nothing of the fact that a large portion of the country probably has a worse immune system now than they did at the same time last year due to a serious increase in staying inside and sanitizing everything. That cliff is too damn steep and continues to plummet, but at least this explanation is based in a concept which holds water.
The notion that people are being more careful? That holds zero water for me. I've heard nothing and seen nothing to suggest anything but Biden being sworn in happened. People are doing what they did for the last few months whether that be a moonsuit and NBC filters, or literally nothing, and this is based on what we've all been seeing. Same traffic, same behaviors, same everything. The "case surge" happened directly contrary to all the fucking increases in restrictions and went well past the margin of error for case reporting lag time wise.
In conclusion, this particular big statistical coincidence might be an angle that actually works for persuasion on the previously unconvinced.
That probably has a lot to do with the fact that anyone can observe that cliff in the data which is the Official Correct Data® and the origin of the memo is the WHO, another Official Good Guy Smart Organization®, and even Official Correct News Source® The New York times deigned to notice this trend, even if they avoided the obvious explanation for the cliff.
Maybe don't link the explanation for why cases are falling off a cliff to the notion that numbers have been pumped for months for political reasons immediately, or even in the same conversation, but if you've got a good handle on explaining how PCR testing works and how that relates to the memo, that might sow some productive brain seeds.
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2019
On Rush Limbaugh today Rand Paul called for a boycott of shutdowns and masks. Is it... happening?
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2019
I agree with you that the numbers are suspect, but I would like to clarify that its states which have been hit the hardest which would see the effects of natural herd immunity first. Basically if the more of your population that gets infected, the quicker you start seeing the effects of survivors resistance "blocking" targets from the population.
Also Georgia had less restrictions and a shorter lockdown than Florida did. I'm sure that there are others (probably Texas IIRC).
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2020
- Joined
- Oct 10, 2014
He has zero symptoms. I'm inclined to say the test is more likely to be fucked than the vaccine.
If he dies, then Brianna Wu will take his place.
- Joined
- Dec 31, 2018
Johnson and Johnson’s vaxx is worthless.
- Joined
- Feb 16, 2016
Interesting about Georgia, that one I wasn't aware of. As for Texas, while I can't speak to whether the state at large actually listened to the state government and did what the statehouse told them to do, but I do know that Texas' Governor cucked to media pressure for "lockdowns" some months ago, though they may have reneged on that more recently. Can't say for sure though, don't live down there so my knowledge of Texas is second hand at best.
As for the herd immunity analysis I was hoping you'd chime in: I don't disagree with your analysis as that concept is solidly established, so my question is what kind of trend would you expect to see for herd immunity assuming honest data, and how does this compare to what we are seeing? This is a blind spot for me given a complete lack of training or education in the field so I'm curious.
- Joined
- Sep 5, 2016
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2020
I've been saying all of this since the beginning: we are 100% in a state of mass psychosis.
The way people are reacting to this virus, including but not limited to getting into enraged physical fights over whether or not someone is wearing a mask, policing one another 24/7, moralizing ordinary human behavior (staying home in isolation = good, seeing others = bad/evil) barricading themselves at home and cherry-picking data to pay attention to.....it's absolute lunacy.
I don't think exercising relative caution (sanitizing, staying home if sick, isolating from sick people, etc.) is insanity, but this "new normal" nonsense full of arbitrary, ever-changing rules and goalposts (both morally and legally), safety theater (temperature checks and rapid testing) and Moral Panicking is surely going to be looked back on by many with abject horror.
Twitter comments alone give you a good picture of how much people have collectively lost their fucking minds.
Also apparently Cuomo okay'ed 25% indoor dining in NYC starting next month and the online chimpouts are out of this world.
- Joined
- Aug 4, 2019
Can the psychosis that the government is causing with their lies and bullshit ascend to the part where people start shooting others over masks and what not? 1) It'll be damn funny, and 2) think of the memes.
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2019
For one, I need to reiterate that herd immunity is not a single, solitary binary but rather an equation or a "curve".
That being said we have a ways to go before herd immunity really takes any serious number of targets away virus because IIRC <20% of the population has been infected. What makes things more complicated is this virus might be able to spread in spite of host resistance (hence why people seem capable of testing positive twice, and why even the vaccine isn't guaranteed to prevent the spread).
So in short, I don't fucking know.
I'm sure someone with the software to model this shit could give you a good answer, but all the shit on my laptop is lower-end animal population modeling shit anyways.
The irony is in my undergrad virology, parts of microbio cell bio, and whatever one of three gen bio classes I took in my undergrad were all subjects that were like "WHEN WILL I EVER USE THIS?!?" and yet here I am...
This.
I feel the Motte & Bailey Fallacy is the official fallacy of CoronaPanic. People are suggesting & defending measures which are driving businesses to extinction; causing people to lose their homes, jobs, income, etc; forcing kids to suffer in isolation; you name it - then when confronted about your disagreement to such measures its this "woah bro, what do you have against washing ur hands?!?"
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2018
In all my social circles, the only confirmed death was this elderly church lady whose stuff I cleaned out. She lived in West Memphis, was a lifelong smoker and her house was caked in rat shit and roaches when I got there. A true paragon of health.
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