Sea Levels Are Rising Faster Than Most Pessimistic Forecasts - 'fearmongering scientists' undersold things once again

Climate change is causing oceans to rise quicker than scientists’ most pessimistic forecasts, resulting in earlier flood risks to coastal economies already struggling to adapt.

The revised estimates published Tuesday in Ocean Science impact the two-fifths of the Earth’s population who live near coastlines. Insured property worth trillions of dollars could face even greater danger from floods, superstorms and tidal surges. The research suggests that countries will have to rein in their greenhouse gas emissions even more than expected to keep sea levels in check.

“It means our carbon budget is even more depleted,” said Aslak Grinsted, a geophysicist at the University of Copenhagen who co-authored the research. Economies need to slash an additional 200 billion metric tons of carbon — equivalent to about five years of global emissions — to remain within the thresholds set by previous forecasts, he said.

The researchers built on the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s models, many of which only consider the last 150 years, by incorporating data going back several centuries. The new observations show about a half-meter of sea rise by the end of the century can now be expected with just a 0.5 degree Celsius rise in temperatures. Oceans could rise more than 1 meter at 2 degrees Celsius, a trajectory that will be easily passed under current climate policies.

“The models we are basing our predictions of sea-level rise on presently are not sensitive enough,” Grinsted said. “To put it plainly, they don’t hit the mark when we compare them to the rate of sea-level rise we see when comparing future scenarios with observations going back in time.”

The conclusions follow last month’s warning that rising temperatures have melted 28 trillion metric tons of ice — equivalent to a 100 meter thick sheet of ice covering the entire U.K. — making the worst-case climate scenarios more likely. The new methodology for tracking sea level change could help insurance companies, real estate developers and city planners erecting tidal-defense systems.

“The scenarios we see before us now regarding sea-level rise are too conservative – the sea looks, using our method, to rise more than what is believed using the present method,” Grinsted said, adding that his team at the Niels Bohr Institute is in touch with the IPCC about incorporating its results in next year’s sixth Assessment Report.
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Original paper: https://os.copernicus.org/articles/17/181/2021
Doi: 10.5194/os-17-181-2021
 
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So all these Brave Climate Warriors are going to sell their beachfront property? Perhaps John Kerry will give up the private jet flights to pick up stupid Climate Awards? No? Then why should I care? I've seen the map of the Earth if all the ice melted, which would take at least a century, if their models are right, which they generally aren't. Florida, would be fucked, but on the plus side, Canada and Siberia would become pretty great places.

Maybe if we reduce CO2 from 0.04% of the atmophere to 0.039% of the atmosphere it'll fix it.
 
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Unassuming Local Guy said:
Oh good, the yearly "in fifteen minutes we'll all drown" report is in. I don't care what people say, I've been reading the same doomsaying for the past thirty years and I have no plans on stopping!
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Unless you are the sexy AF Raiden:
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Nobody cares about climate change anymore, and nobody is going to do anything about it even if it is as precisely as big of a problem as this article claims. The sacrifices to standard of living involved in fixing the problem, however big it may be, are simply too high.
 
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All these scientists blabbing on about "carbon budget" sound like fucking idiots perpetually but the media acts like what they say makes fucking sense so it gets a pass.

The entire premise of a "carbon budget" is that we have knowledge of how much "carbon" we're allowed which given how these scientists keep blowing these forecasts every time a green energy check looks ripe for the picking, how can they even begin to claim an iota of real knowledge on the size of the "carbon budget" if their fucking estimates seem to have exactly one consistent thing about them, and that is that the predictions are fucking wrong.

Maybe, just maybe, it's because the causation they're assuming to be true isn't nearly as strongly correlated OR predictable as they suggest it is, and the carbon budget is a number they pulled out of literal thin air like 95% of the shit the EPA comes up with.
 
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When they start bitching at China and India, when they start encouraging nuclear power instead of all of the other climate damaging shit, when they make electric cars cheap enough for even service industry people to afford, when the elite quit jet-setting on an airplane with just themselves and the crew, when the rich and powerful stop buying coastal land...

Then I'll worry about it.

Until then: Nuke the whales.
 
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HarblMcDavid said:
All these scientists blabbing on about "carbon budget" sound like fucking idiots perpetually but the media acts like what they say makes fucking sense so it gets a pass.

The entire premise of a "carbon budget" is that we have knowledge of how much "carbon" we're allowed which given how these scientists keep blowing these forecasts every time a green energy check looks ripe for the picking, how can they even begin to claim an iota of real knowledge on the size of the "carbon budget" if their fucking estimates seem to have exactly one consistent thing about them, and that is that the predictions are fucking wrong.

Maybe, just maybe, it's because the causation they're assuming to be true isn't nearly as strongly correlated OR predictable as they suggest it is, and the carbon budget is a number they pulled out of literal thin air like 95% of the shit the EPA comes up with.
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It's been ages since I've looked at the relevant material, but if I remember right, CO2 is a shit greenhouse gas that does have an upper limit of what it's capable of. The dumbasses that point to Venus always forget to bring up the exact breakdown of its atmosphere and that it's significantly closer to the enormous ball of nuclear fire in the sky that keeps all of us from becoming popsicles.

I'm not saying that Climate doesn't change, any honest historian can tell you it changes, sometimes incredibly rapidly and unexpectedly. The Medieval Warm Period didn't involve CO2 output. Volcanoes blowing up have caused "years without summer" and snow in central Europe in July. The big thing is we can survive and deal with warming far, far better than we can sudden cooling.

I'm also pretty sure we're still technically coming out of an ice age. Makes figuring out what is actually "normal" kinda hard. That said, I'll care when our "betters" start showing they care through their actions.
 
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The Door said:
Weren’t we supposed to be living in atlantis around a decade ago? Cant the world ever end on time?
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We were supposed to have another ice age like 20 years ago and the hole in the O-zone layer was supposed to have cooked us alive by now.

It's almost like the earth goes through phases or something, ermigawd.
 
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Jet Fuel Johnny said:
When they start bitching at China and India, when they start encouraging nuclear power instead of all of the other climate damaging shit, when they make electric cars cheap enough for even service industry people to afford, when the elite quit jet-setting on an airplane with just themselves and the crew, when the rich and powerful stop buying coastal land...

Then I'll worry about it.

Until then: Nuke the whales.
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Funny you should say that - our resident autist environmentalist mouth-piece, Greta Thunberg, recently said she "stood in solidarity" with Indian farmers who are demanding a repeal of three laws implemented in September last year, aimed at deregulating the country's agriculture sector. The farmers say the laws will help big business but destroy the livelihoods of smaller farmers, who form the backbone of the agriculture sector that amounts to almost 15% of India's $2.9 trillion economy.

Guess how the Indian government responded? They said that she was literally trying to target India's democracy and told her (and others like Rihanna) to STFU.


:story: :story: :story:

Turns out when you give your PU-LEESE THINK OF DA EARTH speech to people who don't give a shit, they aren't gonna listen and tell you to fuck off. Who'da thunk?
 
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Just a reminder not a single pier has been swallowed by sea levels rising or come close, not even 200+ year old ones like Ryde Pier on the Isle of Wight. Neither have any countries/islands at sea level disappeared.

But sure, let's pretend we can predict the climate one year from now, when we can't predict the weather one week from now.
 
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