He's going to be convicted because he was an arrogant shitbag that was so used to thumbing his nose at "civilians" for the past 20 years that he didn't realize the world was shifting beneath his feet and the only people he can safely behave that way toward these days are whites.
The evidence is abundantly clear that gf died from the effects of drugs on his horribly damaged and unhealthy body. But a jury made up of low IQ muds coupled with the real fear that anything other than a complete guilty verdict will open them up to at the very least personal financial ruin, and a not insignificant chance of physical violence means they came into this looking for a reason to convict him rather than the other way around. Most said as much during questioning. His arrogant hand in his pockets "step aside civilian" behavior is going to give them that. If he gave off the air of a humble hard working public servant that was concerned about floyd and was just trying to keep him restrained until ems could get there and help him, at least one of the twelve would have too much of a conscience to send him to the nig farm. It's why the other 3 will get hung juries at worst.
The truth is none of the evidence matters, and it never did. Chauvin behaved like an asshole, and no juror is going to go hero mode and put themselves at risk to protect the theoretical innocence of an asshole.