Hyperinflation

[Never Scored]

Yeah sorry kid, your fantasy about battling with other paramilitaries for a new nation won’t ever come about. Better get used to working for the rest of your life.

Do you think 1970/80s style stagflation is possible? If not what do you feel has changed between then and now that prevents it?

 

[Suburban Bastard]

Do you think 1970/80s style stagflation is possible? If not what do you feel has changed between then and now that prevents it?

We’ll probably enter a bull for a year or two, but Weimar Republic or Venezuela style hyperinflation is just beyond paranoid.

 

[mindlessobserver]

We’ll probably enter a bull for a year or two, but Weimar Republic or Venezuela style hyperinflation is just beyond paranoid.

I've never liked the "just because it's happened elsewhere does not mean it will happen here" argument. What precisely makes you think it can't happen here? Because I am watching the value of every asset class from Crypto and Silver to Gasolene and Beef increse in price that is becoming noticeable every week now.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

Yeah sorry kid, your fantasy about battling with other paramilitaries for a new nation won’t ever come about. Better get used to working for the rest of your life.

Great strawman, opinion disregarded.

 

[Seminal Ointments Lain]

Great strawman, opinion disregarded.

Great tinman, opinion considered ironically.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

Great tinman, opinion considered ironically.

Fuck off, inane gimmick account.

 

[Suburban Bastard]

I've never liked the "just because it's happened elsewhere does not mean it will happen here" argument. What precisely makes you think it can't happen here? Because I am watching the value of every asset class from Crypto and Silver to Gasolene and Beef increse in price that is becoming noticeable every week now.

Because these situations are nowhere comparable to the present day conditions of the United States; they were exceptionally awful situations fueled by a multitude of a factors taking place in nations that were both fledgling and unstable. In the case of the Weimar Republic, you had a nation that had imposed onto it massive war reparations that it wasn't capable of paying back, especially with it's war torn state. Add that to the fact their colonies were taken, some of their own mainland was taken which took away industry and resources, and a new government was established in the aftermath of civil turmoil. The institution could never strengthen itself as its short existence lasting a little longer than a decade was filled with political turmoil, complete with attempted coups, uprisings, quarrels that would make any US riot seem like a walk in the park, and growing instability as the political center kept losing support to extremists on either side. For the fucking Zimbabwe government, a place with an already weak agricultural based economy, completely and utterly fucked up their entire agricultural sector with their land reforms, which led to them printing increasing volumes of money to import food, with predictable results. And for the case of Venezuela, their entire fucking economy is reliant on the export of crude oil, their industry of which is crippled and falling apart. The price of their sole major export dropped significantly back in 2014, has yet to return to that level nor is it looking like it will for the foreseeable future, so as you can imagine things got pretty nutty. Their agricultural sector has also completely fallen apart to the point they also need to spam the [IMPORT FOOD] button.

The United States still plays a significantly large role in the global economy, even with China's increased presence, where nations are still flocking to it. There's a reason many tourist spots abroad, especially those in not-so-good economies, prize American tourists, because they want their USD more than any other currency. Though to be completely honest, I feel a decent sum of people who think "THE COLLAPSE IS NEAR" don't cling to it out of thought out reasons, but rather they want it to be the end. Many clinging to it as a form a retribution for various past events, such as the election, which some still have no gotten over.

 

[the fall of man]

No nation has ever been the backbone of the world economy before and hyperinflated. I think you’ll see an inflationary event, followed by a rolling deflationary event several months later, and just general badness for America and the world for years. The end of America won’t be a cataclysmic, instantaneous event. It’ll probably be just losing relevance over time.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

The United States still plays a significantly large role in the global economy, even with China's increased presence, where nations are still flocking to it.

I covered this in the OP you didn't read.

And of course, Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and Venezuela are only examples of hyper inflation, and in all three different shit happened. It does not need to be a 1:1 scenario to any of them to happen. Though it is strongly unlikely to happen, this is not a normal event, it's a pandemic where people were laid off en masse and are now being paid by the government to not work even despite vaccine rollouts, causing supply shortages due to a lack of labor. This goes without mentioning infrastructure hacks that appear to be an oncoming trend, plus the Biden administration's anti-industry stance they've exhibited by illegally shutting down the Keystone pipeline.

 

[Samson Pumpkin Jr.]

Because these situations are nowhere comparable to the present day conditions of the United States; they were exceptionally awful situations fueled by a multitude of a factors taking place in nations that were both fledgling and unstable.

like the covid 19 pandemic and lockdowns basically crashing the economy. That's what I would call unstable conditions

especially with it's war torn state

while Germany did suffer immensely from the blockade, it was not war torn. only a couple areas saw fighting and the fighting wasn't that devastating

Add that to the fact their colonies were taken, some of their own mainland was taken which took away industry and resources,

the colonies were net loss for Germany financially when they owned them. The land taken away as a proportion of gdp was very small and the areas themselves were small. the biggest hit was a coal producing region of upper Silesia and Germany wasn't suffering from a shortage of coal (after ww1)

The institution could never strengthen itself as its short existence lasting a little longer than a decade was filled with political turmoil, complete with attempted coups, uprisings, quarrels that would make any US riot seem like a walk in the park, and growing instability as the political center kept losing support to extremists on either side. For the fucking Zimbabwe government, a place with an already weak agricultural based economy, completely and utterly fucked up their entire agricultural sector with their land reforms, which led to them printing increasing volumes of money to import food, with predictable results. And for the case of Venezuela, their entire fucking economy is reliant on the export of crude oil, their industry of which is crippled and falling apart. The price of their sole major export dropped significantly back in 2014, has yet to return to that level nor is it looking like it will for the foreseeable future, so as you can imagine things got pretty nutty. Their agricultural sector has also completely fallen apart to the point they also need to spam the [IMPORT FOOD] button.

this literally has no relation to hyperinflation. it's like saying "because there's no conflict, if I pump the market full of cheap product x the product won't go down in price." money is a commodity like any other and the government just flooded the market with it

Though to be completely honest, I feel a decent sum of people who think "THE COLLAPSE IS NEAR" don't cling to it out of thought out reasons, but rather they want it to be the end. Many clinging to it as a form a retribution for various past events, such as the election, which some still have no gotten over.

a collapse is the last thing I want rn. but I don't speak for everyone

There's a reason many tourist spots abroad, especially those in not-so-good economies, prize American tourists, because they want their USD more than any other currency.

they want it because the dollar is the world's reserve currency. it's the most stable and one of the most valued. But that didn't make it immune to hyperinflation. In 1970 when the Shah of Iran was overthrown, the dollar, for various reasons, started precipitously inflating. The way it was stopped was the fed raised the interest rates to 21%. Tell me what would happen if the fed raised the interest rate to 21% today? the government would go bankrupt. so, even if the dollar wasn't going to hyperinflate, the fed still has no way of stopping it if it did happen

 

[Suburban Bastard]

I covered this in the OP you didn't read.

And of course, Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and Venezuela are only examples of hyper inflation, and in all three different shit happened. It does not need to be a 1:1 scenario to any of them to happen. Though it is strongly unlikely to happen, this is not a normal event, it's a pandemic where people were laid off en masse and are now being paid by the government to not work even despite vaccine rollouts, causing supply shortages due to a lack of labor. This goes without mentioning infrastructure hacks that appear to be an oncoming trend, plus the Biden administration's anti-industry stance they've exhibited by illegally shutting down the Keystone pipeline.

I did read your OP and it wasn't any different than the 10 inch monster cock turd I shat out last friday.

Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and Venezuela are only examples of hyper inflation

And it's through examples we learn to understand the roots and causes of this phenomena. You're also ignoring that unemployment has been decreasing, obviously still work to go but holy fuck it ain't a doomsday level. Benefits and free aid will be phased out as we enter the final phases of vaccine rollout and normalcy returns, heck many states are already prepping for that. As for the keystone pipeline, yeah 40,000 jobs is sad, but it means fuck all in the grand scheme of a nation with 300+ million fuckers living in it.

@Samson Pumpkin Jr. I mean if you think a recession triggered by a pandemic that all nations of the world have to the sheer insanity that was Germany in the aftermath of ww1, then lol retard. But in seriousness, the reparations were fucking harsh dude, shit literally started to skyrocket after the first payment. War torn referred to the conditions afflicting Germany by her end, including a beginning rise in inflation caused by the nation's financing of the war (which the reparation mess would build off of) and absolute SHITSHOW that was 1919.

this literally has no relation to hyperinflation. it's like saying "because there's no conflict, if I pump the market full of cheap product x the product won't go down in price." money is a commodity like any other and the government just flooded the market with it

These are hyperinflations where a young politically unstable and/or economically weak nation money printed themselves into hell. Also, the 1970s were not hyperinflation. Economists define hyperinflation as when the monthly inflation rate rises above 50%. The 1970s stagflation was rough but it never got close to approaching these levels. A better example would've been the continental currency, which was mass printed by, once again, a new yet-to-be-solidified nation. (Notice the trend?)

 

[Samson Pumpkin Jr.]

@Samson Pumpkin Jr. I mean if you think a recession triggered by a pandemic that all nations of the world have to the sheer insanity that was Germany in the aftermath of ww1, then lol retard. But in seriousness, the reparations were fucking harsh dude, shit literally started to skyrocket after the first payment. War torn referred to the conditions afflicting Germany by her end, including a beginning rise in inflation caused by the nation's financing of the war (which the reparation mess would build off of) and absolute SHITSHOW that was 1919.

that's different because Hungary, Germany and Bulgaria were able to pay their debts well, but Germany was the only one that suffered hyperinflation. Hyperinflation only happens when you print lots of money. Yes, nations who are in turmoil tend to print money but it only tends to, it's not a guarantee. In short, hyperinflation has no regards for the conditions of the country, the ONLY relation it has is whether the country in question printed one third of their money supply in one year, which we did.

These are hyperinflations where a young politically unstable and/or economically weak nation money printed themselves into hell. Also, the 1970s were not hyperinflation. Economists define hyperinflation as when the monthly inflation rate rises above 50%. The 1970s stagflation was rough but it never got close to approaching these levels. A better example would've been the continental currency, which was mass printed by, once again, a new yet-to-be-solidified nation. (Notice the trend?)

the whole entire point flew over your head. The inflation stopped because the fed raised the interest rates to 21%. we can't do that today because the US is $28 trillion dollars in debt.

The only trend I see is: country prints lots of money then hyperinflation.

 

[Lieutenant Rasczak]

I believe hyperinflation (+50% Inflation rate) is possible in the United States, but not on the levels of Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, or post WW2 Hungary.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

I did read your OP and it wasn't any different than the 10 inch monster cock turd I shat out last friday.

Yeah bullshit, you just read the title and went straight to post because you assumed you knew everyone's position on the subject. You even made a refutation using a point I already made in the OP about the U.S. being the world reserve currency, as if nobody had thought of it or brought it up.

Also, the 1970s were not hyperinflation. Economists define hyperinflation as when the monthly inflation rate rises above 50%. The 1970s stagflation was rough but it never got close to approaching these levels.

Of course it didn't, it was averted through a higher interest rate.

A better example would've been the continental currency, which was mass printed by, once again, a new yet-to-be-solidified nation. (Notice the trend?)

Haha, lmao, correlation equals causation, flawless logic.

And it's through examples we learn to understand the roots and causes of this phenomena. You're also ignoring that unemployment has been decreasing, obviously still work to go but holy fuck it ain't a doomsday level.

Nobody said it was at doomsday levels yet, just that the current conditions were worthy of consideration. I'm not advocating that hyperinflation is going to happen nor have I ever, I speculated that it might.

Benefits and free aid will be phased out as we enter the final phases of vaccine rollout and normalcy returns, heck many states are already prepping for that.

What if things don't get better? What if we have another lockdown scare over the new Bird Flu in China currently? What if Ebola becomes a ubiquitous, global disease?

 

[Syaoran Li]

Do you think 1970/80s style stagflation is possible? If not what do you feel has changed between then and now that prevents it?

I think hyperinflation is astronomically unlikely but I think 1970's style stagflation is possible.

I've never liked the "just because it's happened elsewhere does not mean it will happen here" argument. What precisely makes you think it can't happen here? Because I am watching the value of every asset class from Crypto and Silver to Gasolene and Beef increse in price that is becoming noticeable every week now.

As others pointed out, the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe were not superpowers and neither the Reichsmark nor the Zimbabwean dollar were the reserve trade currency for the entire world like the US dollar is.

No nation has ever been the backbone of the world economy before and hyperinflated. I think you’ll see an inflationary event, followed by a rolling deflationary event several months later, and just general badness for America and the world for years. The end of America won’t be a cataclysmic, instantaneous event. It’ll probably be just losing relevance over time.

I know the whole comparison of America to the Roman Empire is very cliche but I really do think the decline and fall of the United States will be a slow and steady decline that ends with a whimper as opposed to some ridiculous apocalyptic scenario like in the movies.

 

[CockPockets]

I want someone to make an unrealistic awful prediction so I can screenshot it when it doesn't become true and farm reddit karma

 

[MadStan]

Suburban Bastard has a good grasp of what we are seeing and some of the opponents to this poster seem to lack some of the thought process and are a little emotive - especially when comparing early 20th Century scenarios - or using Zimbabwe as an example (which is like using Venezuela as a good example of socialism).

There are huge volumes of cash in the global system that need to be weeded out; or you inflate it to make the debt less bothersome.

My only concern is during the Trump administration the Fed (no reflection on Trump) attempted to unwind the balance sheet and it was met with near open revolt on the markets. It did not go down well and they pulled back from dumping the toxic assets.

So I really have no idea how they do it now when the sheets are just chock full even more so. The USD is losing ground against foreign currencies so there is some balancing going on; but this has to be stopped because if the Chinese see it going too far down they may have no choice but to decouple from it which has more ramifications.

I don't profess to know how this gets sorted but would appreciate some good input rather than emotive nonsense and alarm. So speak if you've any rational statements to make.

 

[Suburban Bastard]

that's different because Hungary, Germany and Bulgaria were able to pay their debts well, but Germany was the only one that suffered hyperinflation. Hyperinflation only happens when you print lots of money. Yes, nations who are in turmoil tend to print money but it only tends to, it's not a guarantee.

I’m gonna assume you meant to write “Hungary, Austria, and Bulgaria”. Their reparations weren’t anywhere at the same level Germany was slapped with and the allies essentially recognized Hungary and Austria were not in any condition to pay them off, while Bulgaria’s reparation total was a small fraction of what Germany owed.

In short, hyperinflation has no regards for the conditions of the country,

And yeah no, history has shown that the state of the country is a factor in how inflation is taken. During the civil fucking war both the Union and Confederates printed money like a motherfucker. By the end of the war the Union’s currency was inflated but nowhere near the confederate currency which had hyperinflation bad enough to render it almost worthless.

Yeah bullshit, you just read the title and went straight to post because you assumed you knew everyone's position on the subject. You even made a refutation using a point I already made in the OP about the U.S. being the world reserve currency, as if nobody had thought of it or brought it up

Cope. Seethe. Dilate.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

So I really have no idea how they do it now when the sheets are just chock full even more so. The USD is losing ground against foreign currencies so there is some balancing going on; but this has to be stopped because if the Chinese see it going too far down they may have no choice but to decouple from it which has more ramifications.

They can't, they're invested in U.S. debt. If they call on that debt, they fuck themselves even harder than they would the U.S.

Not to mention that the Yuan is nowhere near the scale of the petro dollar, and their labor forces are in a stagnant situation where their one child policy fucked over their demographics and the average Chinese person already works six days a week, 9 A.M. to 9 P.M.

They also are no longer the nation of making cheap lightbulbs for everybody else, they're a middle class nation who are becoming expensive insofar as slave labor goes, not to mention China's policies of committing hostile takeovers of companies who dare to do business in their nations has caused people to avoid them and find alternatives, especially during the pandemic when China went full panic retard & shut everything down.

And yeah no, history has shown that the state of the country is a factor in how inflation is taken. During the civil fucking war both the Union and Confederates printed money like a motherfucker. By the end of the war the Union’s currency was inflated but nowhere near the confederate currency which had hyperinflation bad enough to render it almost worthless.

The reason this worked out for the Union is because there was increased demand due to the war, and then the expanded demand when the Confederates lost.

 

[MadStan]

They can't, they're invested in U.S. debt. If they call on that debt, they fuck themselves even harder than they would the U.S.

I never said calling the debt - and wasn't even going near that scenario in what I said - I simply meant the value of their currency being pegged to the USD, that is all. The Chinese got most of their debt with good interest rates which to anyone today would look quite attractive, so they are not going to offload good paying bills, they are paying well. And while they are invested in US Debt, that really doesn't have much implication in how they act is regards to their economies or their currency.