Hyperinflation

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

I never said calling the debt - and wasn't even going near that scenario in what I said - I simply meant the value of their currency being pegged to the USD, that is all. The Chinese got most of their debt with good interest rates which to anyone today would look quite attractive, so they are not going to offload good paying bills, they are paying well. And while they are invested in US Debt, that really doesn't have much implication in how they act is regards to their economies or their currency.

China is in little position to really uncouple itself from the dollar, if they do they will hurt themselves the most. They're about to take an enormous demographics hit from their stupid one child policy, now they don't have replacement demographics. The workers they have now are at their limits as well with 996. If anything, China is losing strength. There's also the fact China can only innovate by stealing, since they have such a stranglehold on free speech, it's hard for anyone to be imaginative. I don't see them reaching parity with the U.S.

 

[MadStan]

They can't, they're invested in U.S. debt. If they call on that debt, they fuck themselves even harder than they would the U.S.

Not to mention that the Yuan is nowhere near the scale of the petro dollar, and their labor forces are in a stagnant situation where their one child policy fucked over their demographics and the average Chinese person already works six days a week, 9 A.M. to 9 P.M.

They also are no longer the nation of making cheap lightbulbs for everybody else, they're a middle class nation who are becoming expensive insofar as slave labor goes, not to mention China's policies of committing hostile takeovers of companies who dare to do business in their nations has caused people to avoid them and find alternatives, especially during the pandemic when China went full panic retard & shut everything down.

The reason this worked out for the Union is because there was increased demand due to the war, and then the expanded demand when the Confederates lost.

I couldn't agree with you on every point but China is merely going through the inevitable teething problems a nation hits when it starts to become wealthy; but frankly their model is a rather good one albeit they must soon make concessions in freedoms in order to facilitate the needed economic and financial expansion. They have an awful lot of good infrastructure and are working on new markets all the time and I imagine it will be China or Chinese companies that get goods made in India or Africa with the critical difference in that China will ensure they own most of the factories and are really just creaming those nations and continent for their cheap labor - which as you pointed out is getting less cheap in China itself.

The Yuan doesn't need to be on scale relative to the USD. Its on a scale it is because of trade volumes and even if it exceeds the USD is terms of GDP and any other measure, a currency that has a larger volume is still not as competitive as a lesser volume currency if the lower volume currency is more usable - and that's why the USD has value.

But we are talking about the USD here at home and the subject if inflation rather than China which is another matter entirely.

 

[Samson Pumpkin Jr.]

I’m gonna assume you meant to write “Hungary, Austria, and Bulgaria”. Their reparations weren’t anywhere at the same level Germany was slapped with and the allies essentially recognized Hungary and Austria were not in any condition to pay them off, while Bulgaria’s reparation total was a small fraction of what Germany owed.

Austria really couldn't pay their debts and they had them reduced. Hungary could pay their debts for the first portion of the 20s but struggled in the latter half. Bulgaria got lenient reparations because Protestants in the US had success spreading Protestantism there so Woodrow Wilson was probably lobbied by them to be lenient on Bulgaria. I know what I'm talking about.

I'm not gonna dig up the sources rn, but Germany could pay their debts well but went autistic and started printing money. Yes, the reparations were particularly harsh and they probably couldn't pay it off in full until the 1970s, but they kept up with their yearly installments.

And yeah no, history has shown that the state of the country is a factor in how inflation is taken. During the civil fucking war both the Union and Confederates printed money like a motherfucker. By the end of the war the Union’s currency was inflated but nowhere near the confederate currency which had hyperinflation bad enough to render it almost worthless.

I understand what you're saying and I agree. You have to take into account that most nations today will continue existing into the near future, so there is the difference that the CSA would literally stop existing where as the currency of another country might devalue but never stop holding value. In all this, the current economy is doing bad and we printed lots of money. We have the prerequisites. Even if you say there won't be hyperinflation you must admit there will be inflation. (there will be hyperinflation btw)

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

@Suburban Bastard you might not know this but one of the big reasons why the Confederate currency failed was because of counterfeiting from the Yankees causing inflation. It was also a massive contributing factor in their loss of the Civil War.

 

[MadStan]

China is in little position to really uncouple itself from the dollar, if they do they will hurt themselves the most. They're about to take an enormous demographics hit from their stupid one child policy, now they don't have replacement demographics. The workers they have now are at their limits as well with 996. If anything, China is losing strength. There's also the fact China can only innovate by stealing, since they have such a stranglehold on free speech, it's hard for anyone to be imaginative. I don't see them reaching parity with the U.S.

Look I feel you are throwing in many topics on top of one another that aren't relevant really. I didn't say they would decouple, I said if the USD keeps sliding they may have to decouple which has implications for how trade works globally - that is all. You can talk about China's missteps or policy but the idea China is weakening is not displayed in any meaningful metric. The only game in town that funds your armies, research, infrastructure and wealth is economics - and there is no statistic to back up the idea they are weakening in any way - on the contrary, they are gaining strength.

Don't take offense to them gaining strength economically, it is unlikely the US could now ever approach where China will be in a few years and that's OK, the most affluent economies with the highest standards of living and happiness aren't the ones with the largest GDP. I don't see the Norwegian countries complaining their economies aren't as big as the USA or China, but they are doing very well indeed on any metric of importance.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

I didn't say they would decouple, I said if the USD keeps sliding they may have to decouple which has implications for how trade works globally - that is all. You can talk about China's missteps or policy but the idea China is weakening is not displayed in any meaningful metric.

I get what you're saying, but what I mean is that China is headed for decline first and foremost. It's not happening now but it'll come and hit hard for China. Any strength China is gaining now is only as strong as their workforce is young, and they have fewer babies per year now than they do elderly people entering retirement.

I'm not offended by the prospect of China making economic gains, because they just make up bullshit to pad their waning wealth. Remember the ghost cities they built to inflate their GDP? They might be gaining some strength, but they bullshit their numbers to look better off than they are.

And I don't see Africa becoming a major hub for factory labor, it's a continent known for having few resources, save for chromium mines, gold & diamonds, and really shitty labor. Could Africa improve? Possibly.

India is a better prospect for your cheap lightbulbs but they fucking hate China's guts, so who knows how well that could turn out.

 

[Suburban Bastard]

@Suburban Bastard you might not know this but one of the big reasons why the Confederate currency failed was because of counterfeiting from the Yankees causing inflation. It was also a massive contributing factor in their loss of the Civil War.

Uh, probably more because they were an almost entirely agricultural economy which relied on exportation of their goods. So when the superior Union navy blockaded the hicks from conducting trade with the euros, things got, uh, quite the opposite of good.

Also obligatory #ShermanDidNothingWrong etc., etc.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

Something has just occurred to me, if hyperinflation were to occur, it would start with all the smaller nations first since everyone has produced an excess amount of money, that would mean currencies of smaller nations would lose value first and chain its way up to larger nations, and since the U.S. is a ubiquitous currency used around the globe, it would most likely be able to buff the impact and even more people would clamor for it than before, giving it even more strength potentially.

Uh, probably more because they were an almost entirely agricultural economy which relied on exportation of their goods. So when the superior Union navy blockaded the hicks from conducting trade with the euros, things got, uh, quite the opposite of good.

I said it was a massive contribution, not the sole reason. After all, you can't buy things with a currency that's worthless.

 

[MadStan]

I get what you're saying, but what I mean is that China is headed for decline first and foremost. It's not happening now but it'll come and hit hard for China. Any strength China is gaining now is only as strong as their workforce is young, and they have fewer babies per year now than they do elderly people entering retirement.

I'm not offended by the prospect of China making economic gains, because they just make up bullshit to pad their waning wealth. Remember the ghost cities they built to inflate their GDP? They might be gaining some strength, but they bullshit their numbers to look better off than they are.

And I don't see Africa becoming a major hub for factory labor, it's a continent known for having few resources, save for chromium mines, gold & diamonds, and really shitty labor. Could Africa improve? Possibly.

India is a better prospect for your cheap lightbulbs but they fucking hate China's guts, so who knows how well that could turn out.

No doubt China was heading for a decline - everyone was screaming about how bad their debt was and getting ready for the "great collapse". And now we have piled on more debt than they did and it should make us blush.

But is it really debt?

I've kept track of china for a long time, and yes I am familiar with the ghost cities, but at least they have something solid for the debt - i.e. a building. I'd sure rather have an empty city that could be filed rather than 3 trillion USD laying on a desert in the middle east as wasted munitions.

It is very hard for China to collapse because it is a global engine no matter how bad their debt; and the USAs argument that they were padding SOEs with free money has now gone out the window with the huge tax breaks we gave corporations and the billions we've handed to companies with essentially no requirement for payback. The USA is a global engine also.

It raises an interesting question of whether there is any point in paying back any debt if we all know it can never be repaid and should have us look at monetary policy in a different fashion - and thus we come back to the inflation matter. It raises the point of why bother with taxation at all if we can print and keep inflation under control. Can we? If we view debt as assets then what did America buy with it's debt? I think we spent it poorly, but really, we don't need to pay it back and other countries are starting to call our bluff. The 2008 blast took us into territory we could never come back from - we used the USD - the worlds currency - and gave ourselves 4 Trillion for nothing - and we didn't pay it back and lied that we would - so every other country kind of is a little pissed off at this as well hey, why do these guys have the keys to print machine and we don't?

One way to get rid of excess cash is to tax the shit out of where the money ends up - corporates. Or we tax everyone to death to squeeze out the money and burn it. Or we arrive at a new monetary policy, globally. Because the USD is everywhere and it is distorting everything.

All I can say is I am uncomfortable with the inflation that is happening at the moment and I am noticing it in the products I use to make a living. There are reports afoot that some supply shocks will loosen the noose on inflation and we will see some slowing down. If you are low income you will notice it far more, but it certainly is rising.

I fear we've entered into a territory where all countries are now going to spend; no one is going to hold back printing and some other method of controlling inflation is going to be required. And what that is I do not know; I fear burdensome taxes and I would scream about it if I actually had a better idea. And I don't.

I have a small nest egg and I am literally watching it devalue in real time; and I am fighting the "fight or flight" urge to put it somewhere to make more than the real inflation.

So I'm sitting on the fence watching. Perhaps not the most ideal strategy, but I do not like to act until I think I can see what is on the horizon, and I certainly do not.

In 2020 when they turned the taps on I literally stepped back from the TV and said "Are you fucking crazy??" and since then its been crazy town.

 

[Samson Pumpkin Jr.]

I get what you're saying, but what I mean is that China is headed for decline first and foremost. It's not happening now but it'll come and hit hard for China. Any strength China is gaining now is only as strong as their workforce is young, and they have fewer babies per year now than they do elderly people entering retirement.

so is the west. Who would win: a Brazilified west or an old China? a slap fight between two terminally ill patients

edit: SOMETHING ELSE, can you recommend some reading on inflation

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

so is the west. Who would win: a Brazilified west or an old China? a slap fight between two terminally ill patients

Yeah the West is in financial decline but not nearly to the breadth & scope that China is, for one thing people still immigrate to the U.S., legally or otherwise. We're not seeing brain drain like other countries did such as in the case of Operation Paperclip.

 

[Freshly Baked Socks]

Special Messages:

• Vladmir Putin is not the only person who gets advance notice when one of his Russian hacker groups will be shutting down an American industry... certain members of the US congress are also notified through various channels.
  Our nation is again experiencing yet another industry shutdown allowing pre-notification of these hacker attacks to make Putin and others wealthier by using front-men to make sudden and large stock purchases in the affected industries.
  Putin and his Russian hackers predictably know that American corporate greed will use hacker attacks to raise the price of their products and the short-term buy-and-sell will add millions to their bank accounts. To date my agency has failed to work to find out which members of the US Congress have made additional stock purchases in Colonial Pipeline before or during the Russian attack that shut them down and raised gas prices. As of this hour Dir. Wray has failed to assign investigators to find out who made sudden transactions in JBS knowing full well that beef prices would soar.
  Huge investments in terror-related attacks on American industries generally occur under Democrat presidents (beginning with the oil-price 'crises' during the Iran Hostage Incident in 1979), and with gas prices again being affected by the first Trade Center Bombing under Clinton (even though Afghanistan did not produce a single drop of oil), and again during the Obama Admin in which Obama not only did nothing to bring gas prices down, Obama told Americans to expect even high prices... rising to an unthinkable level. We are now seeing the Obama pattern returning under his former VP... along with new attacks on other industries which Joe Biden is pretending to be powerless to stop even though he has complete authority to order beef prices to freeze at last week's level before the JBS attack.
  Americans need to brace themselves for sudden price increases on virtually any industry they depend upon... and with each attack Putin will get richer, and members of the US Congress will follow Putin's lead.
  Financial terrorism will be the order of the day under Joe Biden as he pretends to be powerless to prevent them and pretends to be less powerless to do something about the predictable price gouging that certain people will quickly profit from.
  Signed,
  (D/W Redacted), FBI

source: http://www.americanwarlibrary.com/deawatch/daily.htm, 02 Jun 2020, 10:00 PST, 1st Edition

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

source: http://www.americanwarlibrary.com/deawatch/daily.htm, 02 Jun 2020, 10:00 PST, 1st Edition

FTS Wire - DEA Watch

archived 3 Jun 2021 05:15:28 UTC

archive.is

Why is this website so janky lookin'? I don't think I trust it.

 

[Freshly Baked Socks]

Why is this website so janky lookin'? I don't think I trust it.

The boomer who operates it hasn't changed formatting in over 20 years.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

The boomer who operates it hasn't changed formatting in over 20 years.

Is he trustworthy? Has anything he said been verified?

 

[General Tug Boat]

I think the worse of it is an stagnation event like during the 70's in a hybrid with the 08 housing recession. The conditions are too perfect for there not to be some total halt in the growth, yielding to the inevitable raising of interest rates. I don't think the event is going to ever reach Weimar levels, unless all together foreign entities completely 180 on imports, as well utilizing the USD for exchange. Which realistically that isn't going to happen anytime quick.

With Biden fucking around with the mineral extraction and energy sector is what is going to cause the rebound to take a lot longer. Supply chain is going to take a few years to readjust for sure and shortages will cause issues for exports. Though this isn't something that America is going to not survive. Just life is going to be slightly more uncomfortable until there is reform in the GOP, House, and DOJ. Which if the midterms are any indicator, that will end up occuring, because of the ineffective nature of this third term Obama administration is going to have when handling the market opportunity that has presented itself. Especially in regards of the energy sector getting fucked, if anything, nothing of any use will get accomplished.

A Weimar situation would occur if we end up getting into a hot war with China and if the US ended up losing. Which even looking at the dynamics of the US defence, that would be a very unlikely scenero. I'm not going to say that the middle class isn't going to be continued to be gagged by the BBC, but the main damage points are going to be in the Dem dominant cities, which you are already seeing the scales shift in the balance of the power.

Hyperinflation is going to indeed cause issues for the next couple of years, but really is going to depend on whether or not America wants to keep making these lateral movements with this green energy shit.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

There is only one solution to beat back the money printer going brrrrrr

Spoiler

 

[Freshly Baked Socks]

Is he trustworthy? Has anything he said been verified?

The postings are almost entirely anonymized reports of unpublished events, so trusting the source may be impossible. Only when reading the site regularly, do some reports seem prescient when considered retrospectively. It also offers plainly outlandish hot-takes from federales who display their own ignorance - not all anonymous reports are created equal.

I rate the site "fantastic", in the same way KF can be - absolutely titillating gossip I could not find anywhere else. Phillip Roger Coleman, the website operator, has been vilified and canonized - depending on whom you speak to - which can be natural when you run a website which confounds the powers that be. Or, he's a total crackpot running a 30+ year scam. Either way, I'm entertained.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I think people ITT have wildly different definitions of what hyperinflation is. I too doubt we will see Venezuela or Zimbabwe levels. Regulators will push the panic button long before that. I do however think we are about to enter a period where inflation with exceed 10%. It's already starting. Low wage employers have started to offer hiring bonuses and increased wages. The prices of goods and services have started to increase. Property values have started to greatly increase in price. There is not a house in my area that isn't getting sold for more then list price, and usually within the span of days. The list prices themselves are up massively. We are going to start seeing Rent Prices rise to match this very soon and that is when the real shit will start because it's going to happen in conjunction with the unemployment dole expiring. People are going to start flooding back into the labor market, taking those hiring bonuses and higher wages which will in turn super charge things. And with the new Child Credit stimulus set to start AT THE SAME TIME things are going to get freaky.

We are right on track for the summer inflation and my previous predictions of serious consequences in the fall at the earliest. I would say we all have 6 months to a year left to prepare.

 

[Marchesa of the Vast]

I've kept track of china for a long time, and yes I am familiar with the ghost cities, but at least they have something solid for the debt - i.e. a building. I'd sure rather have an empty city that could be filed rather than 3 trillion USD laying on a desert in the middle east as wasted munitions.

This is about where I decided to look over and see who was posting. Those buildings are literally trash that is falling apart unusable because if they were to be occupied (which they aren't designed to be in the first place) they would lose their value. The whole point of those ghost cities is for people to invest in and then hold onto like a fucking Shiba Inu coin. They'll literally steamroll over entire blocks and rebuild for new investments. Part of this is because the Chinese stockmarket makes the crypto market look sensible. Part of it is because mainlanders are autistic about fengshui. It's the PRC version of "dig a hole, fill it back up, economic growth!"

If there is one thing that doesn't inspire confidence in the PRC, it's the way their construction sector operates.