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Id go full doomer, but it's comforting to know the chinese are gonna have to contend with this shitshow now. Such a dam shame about all the civilians though.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...seized-afghan-military-u-s-withdraws-n1273081
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ing-reduce-border-patrol-money-historic-surge
Why? why on gods green earth do they think this wont fuck them over?
Absolute speculation, but its not entirely impossible that the non-pozzed overseers of the Afghanistan withdrawal (Anyone who sees active combat or oversees it rapidly becomes unpozzed) 'accidentally' ensured that the Taliban gets hold of some high-end gear just to fuck with China when they start things. The problem for China, and why I see it as inevitable that the area will become a military conflict for them, is that they... ironically don't do long-term planning well. Their entire economy is about hitting precisely their next stated goal, and this often comes at the detriment of long-term goals.
For example. They make a bridge, this bridge has to fall within a very specific budget to meet their financial quotas. They realize it will go slightly over, so they use lesser materials to come within budget. Down the line, the bridge breaks causing a significant gap in finances which must be made up with more corner-cutting because China's budgets are -fixed- and utterly unbendable.
If the people in charge are lucky, the damage will be noticed but not significant by the time the new budget is made. If they are less than lucky, it becomes a rapidly swelling 50 care pileup.
So what does this mean in relation to Afghanistan? Well... using their African operations as an example. They tend to increasingly squeeze the native population, while massively favoring their own imported population, igniting tension between the two. They get away with this in Africa due to overwhelming military force being an easy cowing method in Africa.
It exacerbates things in Afghanistan.
Inevitably, they are gonna spark a minor issue. They will send in their goon squads just like they always do. And that will ignite full hell. It's a matter of when, not if.
The left thinks they'll always been in control. They notice anything is amiss until their number comes up and the ground beneth them begins to crumble.
I think you are missing a "don't" in there. But yes, and it is a big part of why they overreach so hard. They assume they will always be in power, and that all institutional power is rightfully theirs. It's the same issue as China above. All choices they make are for short-term gain because long-term "They will always be in power". This is both an organizational -and- personal view. Though they are not ignorant of the possibility of losing power, unless the consequences can be made obvious within 2-3 steps of their action, they will handwave it.