Thank you for posting this! I've been meaning to do a blow-by-blow of this for a little while, but wasn't able to find it.
The introduction is a little pathetic. The former "red team" planner for the government is coping and laying out basic facts that a grade schooler would know. America is a big deal. America going to war (even with itself) is going to be a big deal for the rest of the world. Things might be more complicated than you'd think at first!
The first point is an outright lie. Events like the
Northeast Blackout of 2003 were bad, but hardly led to widespread looting and pillaging, certainly not within the hours that such an attack would take to resolve. (And if somebody does have a bullet-proof plan for attacking the grid and coordinating with other highly-skilled team members, they're probably FBI, FYI.) You'll note that red planner doesn't go into details about these certain spots on the grid that marksmen could take out, because they don't exist. There is vulnerability in the power grid, but that's more going to be the
result of Cyberattacks against the infrastructure itself, rather than... a marksman shooting down a transformer? I legitimately don't know what red planner was trying to say, and I don't think they knew either. This is getting stupider the more I'm thinking about it, so I'm going to move on.
The second point is fanfiction and can't be discussed. For it to have any validity, you have to accept that the world's dumbest red team planner is sharing information with 4chan, and while Federal workers do stupid things, this is a bridge too far. Anyway, I'm Boe Jiden and the actual desertion rate is 600% in peacetime. I am weeping with laughter.
The third point is also tremendously stupid. Better equipped than the military? I'll believe that when Qanon puts a B2 bomber over Washington. I can believe that they practice a lot with their weapons, but a rarely discussed point when it comes to gun ownership in the United States is the way that's broken down. Even a cursory search reveals that, while we do have a gun ownership per capital of 120k guns to 100k people,
not everybody in the United States owns a gun. One person with 100 guns is going to be a lot less effective than, say, 100 people with ten guns. This isn't Fate/Stay, there's no infinite gunworks.
The fourth point would be a point if it wasn't ridiculous. Why are we thinking about Russia's involvement (a crippled power focusing on consolidating wealth into the hands of its oligarchs) than a place like China,
a far greater economic and military power with ambitious foreign-stretching plans? The answer is that this piece is enormously stupid. This isn't an academic article, this is an alt-right cope piece masquerading as an intelligent analysis of threat capacity and capabilities. But I'm getting sidetracked from talking about the points it's trying to make again. The author ignores their own desertion rate (75%) to say that the military would be operating at 50% capacity. Is that 50% of 25%?
Who's doing this math?
The fifth point is weird. Yeah, there'd be unrest during a civil war. But why does red planner immediately assume that all the prisoners in the United States will instantly join the Conservative rebels? They've been so good at making their treatise look good by throwing out random percentages, why suddenly give it up? The kindest answer is that nobody has enough research to determine what they'd do, beyond causing chaos. This would be fine if said rebels could give up creature comforts, but even a stint in prison (which I'm not saying is good, just not as bad in comparison) seems beyond the capacity of those who would charge the capitol to tolerate.
The sixth point is at once wrong and at once right. Yes,
infrastructure in the United States is in dire shape. But we're talking about dire shape as in, "won't continue broadly working safely in fifty years" and not "will fall apart when a marksman shoots a telephone pole." It would be a logistical clusterfuck, but that hasn't stopped Detroit and Baltimore from staggering along for decades. To quote another
(German) general, "“The reason that the American Navy does so well in wartime is that war is chaos, and the Americans practice chaos on a daily basis.” I don't know why red planner insists on threatening us with nothing, but whatever keeps him happily weeping.
The seventh point would be fascinating, if not for the fact that it's bullshit. Firstly, the red state blue state paradigm is weird. Is red planner defining that by if the state voted for Obama? If the governor's a Democrat or a Republican? This is a good way of knowing that they're full of shit when they say they were part of a red team in military wargaming. They can't even define the sides relative to one another! Back to the point, who's the largest agrarian producer in the United States? The answer probably isn't one that any of you would consider a red state.
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You'll notice that the listing isn't about crops that are, say, staple crops, but instead focus on agricultural output. The sad truth of the matter is that when it comes to farming in the United States,
factory farms dominate food produced. It's great that Timmy Teabagger would immediately surge out to try to take a factory farm, but that'll turn it into a straight up confrontation between his forces and the forces of Capital in the United States and worldwide. Vlad won't help those who can't help him return. I genuinely can't believe that red planner has gone through seven points by now and hasn't mentioned how the rebel group will sustain itself a week out. Maybe they'll have a communal Onlyfans.
The eighth point is where red planner realizes that his entire thesis of Russia leading a civil war off of American unrest is exceedingly stupid and tries to gloss over it by just asking questions (which is weird, considering how they were able to somehow estimate how many people would defect from the military under Obama's leadership?). How are they going to get out to those flyover states anyway? You'll note that there isn't, say, discussion of if those urban areas could hold areas that the rebels tried to take, or how the deserters would somehow be able to take those bases in urban areas. Having a majority of the military somehow work with them is great (assuming again that this is at all accurate), but we don't know where those people would come from, or how high up in the chain of command they would be. A military without funding or access to logistical support isn't going to get very much done.
The ninth point is hilarious because of how it switches gears halfway through, from "the media will be on our side" to "we'll destroy the media and prevent it from working" (I'm glad red planner remembers point one, because I had forgotten by this point). And why would I care if the rebel faction could monitor my conversations? They're too busy trying to get
Vlad to send them medicine to do anything.
The tenth point is grimly funny in retrospect, because that would be the final conclusion from all of this. That the rebels would win so effortlessly that of course Obama would have to sling nukes at the population. This is a weird one, because by red planner's own math, a majority of the military are going to be supporting the rebels anyway. Maybe it comes down to the upper echelons of the military being the ones who are holding out? Why would the rest of the world immediately join the rebel cause? Aren't the rebels the ones railing against the United Nations and China and Europe and whatever? Red planner even mocks Europe and Sweden in his treatise, why in the world would Europe be willing to help? The correct answer is that red planner has decided that Russia's the only foreign power that will be able to act and of course be willing to help, and while it must warm hearts to the East to know that he has so much faith in them, I don't know where that faith comes from.
Tl;DR: The final point red planner makes is the real takeaway from this. All this thought exercise (and I use that phrase extremely graciously, as that was abominable to think about, much less break down) comes down to is coping. When it comes down to it, if we do enter a civil war, it's going to mean that everybody loses, not that red states (whatever we define those are) are going to win because Vladimir Putin. If you see treatises like this, that make rebellion and terrorism sound like super fun and easy ways to get what you want, for the love of God, think before you act, because I can guarantee that those people either don't know what they're doing and/or don't have your best interests at heart.