Taliban offensive of 2021 and collapse of Afghan government.

[Ow The Edge]

Interesting development in Afghanistan.
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They want to look as forgiving as possible, or at least not bloodthirsty, for their new international audience. How long that will last I don't know, but I wouldn't bet more than a few weeks.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

They want to look as forgiving as possible, or at least not bloodthirsty, for their new international audience. How long that will last I don't know, but I wouldn't bet more than a few weeks.

This isn't the case, Baradar is actually forgiving as part of his nature. In Oct 2001 when the USA was bombing Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai went up into the hills to recruit anti-taliban fighters and ended up getting caught by the Taliban. Baradar actually had him brought to Kabul and released without issue or conditions since it was clear the Taliban was going to be ousted. Some 20 years later what do we find? Karzai willing to sit down the the Taliban and seriously tell people to not fight any longer alongside Abdullah.

I believe Churchill mentioned that Democracy are notoriously shit at handling complex negotiations when it came to warfare because they only operate in two states, complete victory or collapse, mind you at the time the concept of Fabian strategies had not percolated up to fight major Western nations when he said this. Churchill felt that he could have negotiated an end to the war far earlier with the minor Axis powers like Italy because Mussolini wasn't a dickhead like Hitler. Here we have an unelected body in the form of the Taliban just wheeling and dealing whatever it takes to make a national government and anyone that doesn't like what is going on can get fucked. I've heard alternating reports lately that Massoud is in negotiations with the Taliban and sometimes these reports state that he has agreed to terms and other times he is hellbent on never surrendering. I guess we will see, the campaign season is only two months longer. Come spring we will know what is going on.

 

[Ow The Edge]

This isn't the case, Baradar is actually forgiving as part of his nature. In Oct 2001 when the USA was bombing Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai went up into the hills to recruit anti-taliban fighters and ended up getting caught by the Taliban. Baradar actually had him brought to Kabul and released without issue or conditions since it was clear the Taliban was going to be ousted. Some 20 years later what do we find? Karzai willing to sit down the the Taliban and seriously tell people to not fight any longer alongside Abdullah.
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I believe Churchill mentioned that Democracy are notoriously shit at handling complex negotiations when it came to warfare because they only operate in two states, complete victory or collapse, mind you at the time the concept of Fabian strategies had not percolated up to fight major Western nations when he said this. Churchill felt that he could have negotiated an end to the war far earlier with the minor Axis powers like Italy because Mussolini wasn't a dickhead like Hitler. Here we have an unelected body in the form of the Taliban just wheeling and dealing whatever it takes to make a national government and anyone that doesn't like what is going on can get fucked. I've heard alternating reports lately that Massoud is in negotiations with the Taliban and sometimes these reports state that he has agreed to terms and other times he is hellbent on never surrendering. I guess we will see, the campaign season is only two months longer. Come spring we will know what is going on.

If he really is a forgiving guy how do you explain the likes of:

So it has started.. CONTENT WARNING
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Spoiler

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[Blancmange]

This isn't the case, Baradar is actually forgiving as part of his nature. In Oct 2001 when the USA was bombing Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai went up into the hills to recruit anti-taliban fighters and ended up getting caught by the Taliban. Baradar actually had him brought to Kabul and released without issue or conditions since it was clear the Taliban was going to be ousted. Some 20 years later what do we find? Karzai willing to sit down the the Taliban and seriously tell people to not fight any longer alongside Abdullah.
View attachment 2468026


I believe Churchill mentioned that Democracy are notoriously shit at handling complex negotiations when it came to warfare because they only operate in two states, complete victory or collapse, mind you at the time the concept of Fabian strategies had not percolated up to fight major Western nations when he said this. Churchill felt that he could have negotiated an end to the war far earlier with the minor Axis powers like Italy because Mussolini wasn't a dickhead like Hitler. Here we have an unelected body in the form of the Taliban just wheeling and dealing whatever it takes to make a national government and anyone that doesn't like what is going on can get fucked. I've heard alternating reports lately that Massoud is in negotiations with the Taliban and sometimes these reports state that he has agreed to terms and other times he is hellbent on never surrendering. I guess we will see, the campaign season is only two months longer. Come spring we will know what is going on.

mirin that coffered ceiling

 

[MG-34]

View attachment 2459826
Only he can save Afghanistan now.
For those who don't know whom he is, he is Abdul Rashid Dostrum, a fucking hardass warlord who have been fighting the talibans since the 90s and was a key commander of the Northern Alliance.
Heard rumors that he was among the new one, but so far, it is not confirm

Abdul Rashid Dostum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

He's No Massoud, but the US was foolish for not just giving him the keys to Afghanistan and letting him run wild to pacify it. He would have been to Afghanistan to what Park Chung Hee was to the young Republic of Korea.

 

[дядя Боря]

If the rebels are able to secure a supply corridor to eastern Pakistan - they don't need to hold the territory, just secure it enough to move supply convoys back to their bases - I would put money on them be able to break out next year as it warms up.
But they only have a few more weeks to pull it off, and its a question of if they can.

From times of Soviet occupation there, local activity was highly tied to seasons, especially in the countryside. When winter arrives, there is usually a sease fire, amnesty of sorts and many goatfuckers would return to auls to winter out. But once things warm up, they would head out high to caves to play with guns. Without uniforms or signage, you could be in aul, see a goatfucker with an AK and have no idea if he was farming some shit, one of allies or foes.

I'd expect things would quiet down a whole lot by the end of this year with no major activity going.


China's history with Afganistan goes way back to the Soviet invasion. For some fairly complicated reasons, China did not approve the invasion, quite on contrary they boycotted Moscow Olympics over it. They also supplies assload of small arms and artillery, by some sources up to 100 thousand tonnes. Just to give you some perspective that when Soviets were there, it wasn't a war against goatfuckers with sticks. The shit Americans were facing there up til now was some weak sauce, so don't go all patting yourselves on the back. 70-80s ... shit was very real and enemy was well supplied with most advanced arms (not just stingers, but also mines etc.) and right over the border with Pakistan there were many camps where goatfuckers were well trained in use of those weapons, before heading back. And of course they had all the benefit of centralized intelligence.

 

[make_it_so]

From times of Soviet occupation there, local activity was highly tied to seasons, especially in the countryside. When winter arrives, there is usually a sease fire, amnesty of sorts and many goatfuckers would return to auls to winter out. But once things warm up, they would head out high to caves to play with guns. Without uniforms or signage, you could be in aul, see a goatfucker with an AK and have no idea if he was farming some shit, one of allies or foes.

I'd expect things would quiet down a whole lot by the end of this year with no major activity going.


China's history with Afganistan goes way back to the Soviet invasion. For some fairly complicated reasons, China did not approve the invasion, quite on contrary they boycotted Moscow Olympics over it. They also supplies assload of small arms and artillery, by some sources up to 100 thousand tonnes. Just to give you some perspective that when Soviets were there, it wasn't a war against goatfuckers with sticks. The shit Americans were facing there up til now was some weak sauce, so don't go all patting yourselves on the back. 70-80s ... shit was very real and enemy was well supplied with most advanced arms (not just stingers, but also mines etc.) and right over the border with Pakistan there were many camps where goatfuckers were well trained in use of those weapons, before heading back. And of course they had all the benefit of centralized intelligence.

China's support for the Mujahadeen was for the same reason the U.S. did - to support opposition to and hinder the ambitions of a rival power, which had been China's position vis a vis the Soviets since the Sino-Soviet split of the 1960s.

 

[дядя Боря]

China's support for the Mujahadeen was for the same reason the U.S. did - to support opposition to and hinder the ambitions of a rival power, which had been China's position vis a vis the Soviets since the Sino-Soviet split of the 1960s.

well, there was more. Some political disagreements since Krustchev went after the cult of personality of Stalin that did not go well with CCP. China and Soviet Union traded fire over Damansky peninsula and also China was warming up to US and Nixon's visit was around that time too, so all those factors kind of played in. Regardless, chinks are no strangers to Afgan and have some deep history there already.

 

[Ghostse]

From times of Soviet occupation there, local activity was highly tied to seasons, especially in the countryside. When winter arrives, there is usually a sease fire, amnesty of sorts and many goatfuckers would return to auls to winter out. But once things warm up, they would head out high to caves to play with guns. Without uniforms or signage, you could be in aul, see a goatfucker with an AK and have no idea if he was farming some shit, one of allies or foes.

I'd expect things would quiet down a whole lot by the end of this year with no major activity going.

I think you may have missed the point:
no matter what the state of forces, everything is going quiet down in September. No significant territory will change hands until spring.

If the Non-Taliban faction is able to at least conditionally open a path to the border, they will be able to get overland supply during the fall and be in good shape to start fighting come spring.
Not only will it be easier to supply them, but their supporters will be able to point to their ability to establish a corridor to Pakistan as proof of their ability to push out from their strongholds. This makes convincing patrons easier, so they will get more people signing up to send them shit.
So if they can open the corridor by end of month, I would give them very good odds of being able to end 2022 with borders very similar to the Taliban/Northern Alliance lines pre-US invasion.

If they cannot accomplish this in the next coupleweeks, they will likely end up getting supplied probably by covert airdrop or specially bribed convoy, but it will be much less. It'll also be harder to convince people to participate in resupply since there's little evidence they won't surrender or get rolled once the fighting starts again.
Then I'd say whether they are able to push out from their strongholds at a little worse than even odds unless there is a shake up.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

If he really is a forgiving guy how do you explain the likes of:

I don't know exactly when that video was made and also its not possible for leaders to know of the antics of every troop under their control. The only details I've managed to dig up is that his name is Haji Mullah Achakzai and that he was a Police Chief out west near Herat or in Herat. The Taliban haven't made a statement about any antics this guy was up to for the past 20 years, nor has any news agency covered it beyond "he was anti-taliban." Baradar can be forgiving as he wants but remember he acts through intermediaries, the Taliban is a coalition of tribes and various factions and some may just tell Baradar to fuck off. They appear unified on the outside but certainly are not on the inside.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Regardless, chinks are no strangers to Afgan and have some deep history there already.

I still think that Uighur thing is going to bite them in the ass, and hard. It is the will of Allah.

 

[axfaxf]

The Dehmazang area of Kabul is now ablaze with a huge fire that looks to encompass multiple city blocks. Reports of warehouses with fuel tanks being the reason for the conflagration but those are really just rumors, a fire can start anywhere in a place like Kabul, it's been hot and dry there, a cigarette butt or kitchen appliance fire is all that's needed to set it ablaze.

Here's the insane bit, though.

There are no firefighters. Kabul is looking at the capabilities of firefighting that maybe an outlying Roman province might have had 2000 years ago. In a city of 5 million people.

They will be doing whatever they can to lower the official number of casualties, but I don't see any way thousands of people aren't burning to death/trampled fleeing fires right now and through tomorrow.

The fire is now by the Kabul Zoo, which has not been emptied of animals. If it smells like barbecue over in that area, pour one out for Khanzir, a donation from China who holds the distinction of being the only pig in Afghanistan.

I want #SaveKhanzir to go viral. This shitshow seriously need some humor.

 

[MrJokerRager]

I still think that Uighur thing is going to bite them in the ass, and hard. It is the will of Allah.

Nobody in the mainstream Muslim world cares about the uighurs. Most didn't do jack whenever Palestine gets bombed once in a while by Israel or Pakistan begs for help with Kashmir or the Buddhists in Myanmar going 1488 on the Rohingya or when the Russians, raped the Chechens superhard or when Bosnia was getting remove kebabed.

They are an alien race to Arabs and Pakis and Turkmen and Turks since they are far away and not good political fodder since the Chinese generally don't intervene actively in Muslim affairs by lecturing them on women's rights or whatever gay liberal shit of the week.

There is the interesting case though of the Hui where the Han Chinese have little to no issues with them but got problems with the uighurs.

 

[Ishtar]

Most didn't do jack whenever Palestine gets bombed once in a while by Israel

Arab street used to care, but they stopped due to Palestinian grifting and ingratitude and the fact that Israel isn't being driven into the sea anytime soon.

That said, how much of that is Arab governments being chummy with Israel and how much the opinion of Arab man in the cairo bazaar has changed is questionable.

 

[Dog-O-Tron 5000v5.0]

I wanna secede from the US

The Texas Republic will rise and we won't have to deal with this shit.

Unless Greg 'happy wheels' abbot fucks up my state more

If I have grandparents from TX can there be a Law of Return policy?

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Interesting development in Afghanistan.
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https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/1429182770983538689

Steve Hanke on Twitter: "The brother of now-former #Afghanistan presi…

archived 22 Aug 2021 02:28:36 UTC

archive.ph

I'd be mad too if tens of millions of dollars suddenly appeared in my brother's bank account and I didn't get any of it.

China's support for the Mujahadeen was for the same reason the U.S. did - to support opposition to and hinder the ambitions of a rival power, which had been China's position vis a vis the Soviets since the Sino-Soviet split of the 1960s.

Not just that, China encouraged Maoist ideology in Afghanistan and in the 70s and 80s there were small Maoist groups active who periodically conducted attacks against the pro-Soviet government. They were never numerous and were BTFO hard by the Soviets and their remnants mostly vanished in the 90s.

They are an alien race to Arabs and Pakis and Turkmen and Turks since they are far away and not good political fodder since the Chinese generally don't intervene actively in Muslim affairs by lecturing them on women's rights or whatever gay liberal shit of the week.

It's more a matter of Chinese influence rather than dislike. Turkish nationalists are big on the Uyghur cause since they're both Turkic peoples, but there's one key problem--China owns Turkey. Basically the Turkish economy is utter shit because they tried to run it on "Islamic principles" so Turkey needs money, so they ask China. Turns out that getting cash into your economy is more important to Turkish politicians than making Allah happy, so now Turkey lets their domestic nationalists make a bunch of noise (basically like what the US does) all the while they do what China says in regard to Uyghurs living in Turkey which involves harassment, arrest, and deportations. Turkey's ruling class is basically the Turkish version of particularly stupid GOP cuckservatives.

Same thing with other Muzzie countries who raise a fuss about the Uyghurs. Most of them are owned to some degree by the Chinese and the political class loves getting big fat checks from the Chinese. So even if a lot of the population genuinely wants to help the Uyghurs as their Turkic/Islamic/whatever brethren, their governments will do nothing.

And the global Ummah did help Bosnia in the 90s, there was a decent amount of Saudi aid which Osama bin Laden helped distribute and gained Bosnian citizenship for his efforts. Hundreds of al-Qaeda fighters were active in Bosnia among thousands of Mujahadeen. This is why you'll find a lot of Saudi-style Islam in Bosnia to this day and why a sizable amount of Bosnians fought for ISIS.

 

[Ghostse]

the Buddhists in Myanmar going 1488 on the Rohingya

No one likes the Rohingya. They are Muslim Gypsies and even Bangladesh has told them to get fucked, stay out and go get Nirvana'd bitch, lol.

 

[Unyielding Stupidity]

There is the interesting case though of the Hui where the Han Chinese have little to no issues with them but got problems with the uighurs.

The reasons why China tolerates the Hui and not the Uighurs is because the ethnically Chinese Hui are happy to kowtow to Beijing and not cause any trouble for the CCP, while as the ethnically Turkic Uighurs would rather be in charge of their own independent Islamic nation. And considering the massive wealth of oil and natural gas in Xinjiang/East Turkestan, China would never want to give up that land.

 

[Euler's identity]

And considering the massive wealth of oil and natural gas in Xinjiang/East Turkestan, China would never want to give up that land.

And that's also the reason lots of neocons are now oh so concerned about Muslim's rights.

 

[Buttigieg2020]

Jim rightfully applauding the Britbongs.
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https://twitter.com/QuarantinedCoof/status/1429228119379091460

QuarantinedCoof on Twitter: "The next time an American General tells …

archived 22 Aug 2021 01:51:47 UTC

archive.ph

Nice to see the British are expediting the next wave of refugees.