Let's break down this post in a calm manner, shall we?
"here’s the truth nobody wants to hear (but I keep saying it anyway): They're not victims of tariffs. They're victims of their own incompetence."
Dwight's premise for his article is that the entire boardgaming industry is incompetent. In other words, a man who has published one boardgame, which I'd literally never heard of until someone linked this post, currently with a 7.5 ranking on BGG from 105 votes and sitting at rank 13,011, knows more about the boardgame industry than everyone else who has commented on this subject. A bold claim, but we should not focus on his credentials, but his evidence and argument and examine those.
"In their final Kickstarter update, Final Frontier announced that they were shutting down operations, leaving
Merchants Cove: Master Craft,
Rise & Fall, and
Unconscious Mind backers out to dry"
Rise & Fall and Unconscious Mind have delivered to backers. They also were published by Ludically and Fantasia Games respectively, not Final Frontier.
Dwight then talks about how Final Frontier made numerous mistakes. From their kickstarter update, this would definitely seem to be accurate; that they made numerous mistakes that caused them to be in a bad financial position.
We then have a diversion about CMON where first makes some value judgements about CMON and claims "CMON has a well-documented history of: Failing to deliver to customers". This claim is blatantly false. CMON has never failed to deliver a campaign. He also says "Acting with arrogant impunity because they know people will keep paying". This is a value judgement, not a factual one, and has nothing to do with the core premise of his post. He then suggests that CMON are run like a Ponzi scheme - essentially just throwing out more claims that he has no evidence for but are popular with a segment of the boardgame hobby that loves to hate CMON. Again, none of this has
anything to do with his core argument. He's simply levying attacks against a company he clearly doesn't like. It's both invalid and irrelevant.
Dwight then continues to more talk about Final Frontier, again, making his own interpretations of comments that they've made, and of their business decisions. This commentary is at points speculative, very judgemental, and filled with his interpretation of their words. That's not a factual argument - it's a subjective one. It's not the basis for a credible or logical argument.
He then moves on to talking about tariffs, claiming people should look at MFN status and the HTS website, and gives a selection of HTS codes. As others with even more detailed knowledge on this in the comments have already pointed out, the EO tariffs do NOT appear in the HTS, and that nearly all boardgames are being imported under HTS 9504.90.6000. Essentially there's a lot of hot air and outrage here claiming that other boardgame companies haven't done their homework and aren't doing their importing paperwork, even when there's a legal requirement for them to do so. His evidence for this claim? Nothing. In other words, this lengthy segment is nothing but a meaningless rant. The only thing he
does get correct is that there isn't a 245% tariff for boardgames. That's only for specific items, such as syringes. He uses this as an argument to say that there is only a 20% tariff, not a 145% tariff, and uses this as his core argument to say that literally the entire boardgame industry is incompetent. But it's a lie. And without that lie his entire argument has no basis. We could stop here, but let's continue to debunk Dwight's post.
He then moves onto Cephalofair and their CNN interview. He says that Cephalofair said "
1. “We started production before we had any idea what the tariffs would be.”" This is false. What Price actually said was "We went into manufacturing on our latest product line at 0% tariffs before we had any wind of what even a potential tariff percentage was we were looking at". That's a very different statement to Dwight's claim. He says Price should have known they would be hit with a tariff percentage because boardgames were already "at risk of a 25% tariff spike" ... in 2019. So his claim is that Price should have known that there would be at least a 25% tariff despite there being a 0% tariff since the "risk of a 25% tariff spike" that hadn't occurred in nearly 6 years. Dwight then says "So no, Price. You didn’t get blindsided. You ignored a moving train and then cried when it hit you." Given nothing had happened for 6 years, it wasn't so much a moving train as a stationary paperweight.
Dwight then says: "
2. “We’ve got $1.2 million of product stuck overseas—60,000 units—and we’re being told we’ll have to pay a 145% tariff to get it in.” This is the heart of the grift. We’ve already proven—
with actual HTS codes" Once again, Dwight has notably paraphrased Price in his "quote". However, at least this time the meaning is roughly the same, so I won't bother posting the actual quote. But again, this just showcases that Dwight's "quotes" aren't quotes, they're his interpretation of what someone says. That's disingenuous and potentially misleading. But to the substance of his claim, as we've discussed earlier, this is drawing on his lie that tariffs aren't 145%, which underpins much of Dwight's rant. And again, without it, his argument has no merit.
Dwight's next commentary is: "
3. “We’ve essentially been told to cease U.S. sales.” Let’s get this straight. He’s not saying they can’t operate globally. He’s saying they can’t sell in the U.S.—
specifically through their retail distribution pipeline. You know what that tells me?
They don’t have a direct-to-consumer strategy. That’s not a tariff issue. That’s a
business model failure."
Dwight fails to understand that large businesses use retail distribution - it's more effective than a pure direct to consumer strategy. It sells products. If it didn't then retail stores would not exist. Dwight also ignores that Cephalofair DO run direct to consumer selling - that's what their crowdfunding campaigns are - and yet they still have a market for retail distribution that is profitable. Again, note that it's still profitable everywhere else in the world except the US. If it was a simple matter of only a 20% tariff on the production cost as Dwight claims, that
wouldn't prevent US retail sales - because that's analogous to VAT in the EU, where they still have sales. So once again, Dwight is lying - and moreover attributes Cephalofair's actions to cowardice. So not only is he lying, he's engaging in ad hominem attacks using those lies as the basis.
He then talks about "4. “Our last major project shipped 140 ocean containers from China.”" Dwight erroneously talks about this as Gloomhaven. This was Frosthaven, and those 140 ocean containers were sent across the globe, not all the to US. He then attempts to do some math to prove how Cephalofair should be making so much money off these containers. "Even padded and palletized, a Gloomhaven-sized box takes up around
1 cubic foot. So let’s say you can fit
~2,300 units per container. That means
140 containers = ~322,000 units." Again, this isn't Gloomhaven. It's Frosthaven, and includes not just Frosthaven (or Gloomhaven), but other add-ons, sleeves, organisers, sticker books, coins, etc. His math is wrong. But we'll be generous and accept this lie and erroneous math. "At their own stated production cost of $20 per unit, that’s
$6.4 million in manufacturing costs. At $150 MSRP? That’s
$48 million in potential retail value." Nowhere, and I mean
nowhere, do Cephalofair state their production cost per unit. Later Dwight links to a Cephalofair page where they give a theoretical cost of $10 to produce, with a 145% tariff applied, taking the cost per unit to $20. It also says that "
P.S. Gloomhaven & Frosthaven cost considerably more than $10 to manufacture..." So Dwight's production costs are a lie. He also states "$150 MSRP". In that campaign, Frosthaven sold for $100. When Frosthaven shipped, it was also in the peak of the shipping crisis, and Cephalofair ate all those costs without asking backers for extra money. But let's not forget "$48 million in potential retail value" - which would imply that Cephalofair takes all of that profit. Which is simply not true and ignores every single other business cost that went into making the game, and everyone else that takes a cut of the retail price (at a minimum, the retailer and a distributor, but likely at least one more business along the way). He continues in this vein repeating the lie that tariffs would only be $300,000 because again he's falsely claiming the tariff percentage is only 20%. With all the errors and lies that Dwight has made here, he has absolutely no valid point.
Dwight continues: "
Backers bankrolled your future inventory. You were sitting on a goldmine. You just didn’t know how to sell it." Again, this is him continuing his lie conflating worldwide shipping of Frosthaven with the current shipping of Gloomhaven.
He then repeats: "Cephalofair claims it cost them
$20 per unit to produce Gloomhaven 2nd Edition.
It doesn't. It's about
half that, unless they're getting scalped. But okay, fine. Whatever." As stated before, Cephalofair never stated their unit cost of production. And given the gross errors of fact Dwight has made at this point, the idea that his word should be trusted as to the "real" cost of production for Gloomhaven is laughable at best. He even cites this after providing the link to the page written by Cephalofair - meaning he hasn't even read the article he linked. But it gets
worse. "So their claimed total to import the games is:
$1.2M (production) + $2.94M (tariffs) = $4.14 million". Except they don't. What the post he linked to said was: "We have approximately
$1.2M in product produced and awaiting shipment from China currently. The United States generally accounts for ~60-65% of our business. If we shipped what we'd normally be allocating to the U.S. - we'd be looking at a U.S. tax bill of
~$800k+ once it lands at port and before we even start making any new sales (slower sales, at new higher prices." $800k is a
hugely different number than his claimed $4.14 million. So again, Dwight is directly lying about what Cephalofair said. Then he doubles down - "But Here’s the Problem: That Tariff Rate Is Fiction Cephalofair’s $4 million panic hinges on the idea that they’re being charged a
245% tariff. They're not." Again, that 245% is not mentioned
anywhere in Cephalofair's post. Dwight is lying non-stop about what they actually said.
Dwight then invents some more numbers about backers paying for the entire production run of Gloomhaven 2.0, again, using his false production cost figure as the basis for it. Additionally, he treats backers only as individuals paying for a single copy, ignoring that retailers are also backers of crowdfunding projects and will order multiple copies in order to sell them in their store, so there will likely be more copies required than his estimates. "But the key here is:
the backers didn’t just pay for their own games. They
bankrolled Cephalofair’s entire retail inventory. And now that plan is stuck in limbo. Not because of tariffs. Because they printed 45,000 extra units
on speculation without a fulfillment plan or tariff strategy." That backers bankrolled Cephalofair's entire retail inventory is a completely unsubstantiated claim which he has presented
zero credible evidence for. He also says they didn't have a tariff strategy. In this he's somewhat correct, but also grossly disingenuous, because when they started their production run (which take
months), there was no
need for a tariff strategy because there weren't any tariffs, and as mentioned previously, no suggestion that there would or should be any tariffs.
Dwight then goes to talk about Frosthaven and its campaign. Once again through his repeatedly debunked $20 production cost per unit, he invents a figure of $11 million in capital that Cephalofair supposedly had spend and that "They had every opportunity to build out infrastructure, bring in experienced operators, plan for fulfillment risks, or diversify production." What infrastructure, experience operators, planners of diversification or production was this supposed $11 million going to buy them, or how would it have avoided the issue of tariffs? They can't build a factory in the US to produce the games in the US for that price. Not even close. And it would lack the appropriate infrastructure or skilled staff to be able to produce the components required. And this is ignoring all the other things that theoretical $11 million needs to be spent on in order to get a game in prototype stage to production, let alone sent around the world.
Dwight finishes his fact-free attack on Cephalofair with: "
This isn’t a tragedy. It’s a grift. And if you don’t like that word, fine. Call it what it really is:
An epic failure of leadership." So his whole point was to engage in a lenghty ad hominem against Cephalofair, based on his series of lies and misrepresentations.
The premise he laid out at the start of his post was that he'd be explaining how the entire boardgame industry is incompetent. He now tries to bring that point home: "If what I’ve laid out here is true—if board games
aren’t subject to +145% tariffs (or whatever made up number the hysteria brigade wants to drum up this week), if the real rates are closer to 20%, if there are clear ways around this entire mess—
then why is the entire industry saying otherwise? Why is everyone from Kickstarter publishers to CNN anchors repeating the same doom and gloom like it’s gospel? Here’s the uncomfortable answer:
Because this industry isn’t built on business. It’s built on hobbyists." Except as has been pointed out before, what he has laid out
isn't true. His conclusion is built on a false premise, and he's essentially saying that every single person in the boardgame industry except him
has no idea what they are talking about. Except that as I've pointed out time and time again, virtually everything he's said is a lie. His error laden commentary refers to two companies, and have done nothing to counter the evidence based arguments presented by a myriad of developers and publishers across the industry who are
shipping games right now - something that Dwight is most distinctly
not doing. His commentary is entirely theoretical - and even
he knows that, because he's written "If what I've laid out here is true" - and "
if" is the keyword here. Again, what he has laid out is decidedly
not true, and the fact that he prevaricated like this would seem to suggest that even he knows that what he's saying is an egregious lie.
So we reach:
"The Perfect Storm for Getting Screwed
Let me spell it out:
- The U.S. declares a 245% tariff—not on board games, but on a catch-all category that looks close enough on paper.
- China-based freight forwarders—who owe you no loyalty, especially in a trade war—now have an excuse to apply that rate.
- You don’t know the codes.
- You don’t question the paperwork.
- You assume the government is the villain."
No one is saying there is a 245% tariff on boardgames, but again Dwight is claiming that they are. The freight forwarders aren't filling out the paperwork with HTS codes. Just like the rest of the post, Dwight is inventing an alternative reality that fits his argument.
As a brief editorialisation, it should be noted that he writes the entirety of his post with an undercurrent of a political leaning that comes through over and over again. The fact that so much of his diatribe is against Cephalofair, a company run by Isaac Childres, known for beliefs that conservatives very much disagree with, would seem to be very much on brand with a heavily politicised viewpoint and pushing an agenda in support of the current US president.
He continues on after this with a bunch of pontificating with no substance, again accusing others of being incompetent. That was the premise of his post, but at no point has he done a single thing to prove his original claim. He insists that everything is fine, despite every other person in the space explaining in detail how it represents a threat to the boardgame industry as we know it.
Finally, Dwight concludes with trying to hock a book. As part of his sales pitch, he says: "If you’re tired of being lied to..." Yes, I am, Dwight. I'm tired of being lied to by you. Because that's pretty much all you did in your whole post.
I don't imagine Dwight will read or respond to this, and if anyone has gotten this far, thanks for reading. I hope it's highlighted to you how Dwight's post is not simply untruthful, but spreading a fiction that attempts to minimise the serious threat that US tariffs pose to the boardgame industry. And it won't just affect the US - the US represents a significant percentage of worldwide boardgame sales. If the industry dies there, then it scales back massively across the entire world. Unless these tariffs are stopped, it represents a huge risk to this industry, all the people who have jobs in it, and the chances of boardgamers getting new great games to play in the future. Don't let the disinformation in Dwight's post blind you to that harsh truth.
