I always thought the "Biden Threat" was overblown and that he was there just to be dumped on by Harris or Warren.
Now I'm certain that he's become the Jeb! of 2020.
It always seemed to me that he was the most likely to win back working class Rust Belt voters. And with those states, the election. But 2019 Biden is just a drooling mess, and 2020 Biden will be even worse.
I now think Biden would be the best opponent.
-Progressives won't get behind him.
-Swing voters won't turn out for him.
-Moderate Democrats might look for a third party alternative when they realize with his age and mental state he would not be able to perform the job.
And lastly there's his VP choice. A good VP choice complements a nominee's weakness and pacifies doubters. Mike Pence is a great example. For Evangelicals, having Pence on the ticket of a serial philanderer, non religious, not outwardly pro life nominee was encouraging. Even Biden being on the ticket of a young, progressive black Obama was a good choice to pacify the old, white establishment corporate types.
Palin was awful because it was solely an identity play to get women to vote for McCain. Whoever the Dem nominee is will likely have an identity VP.
But on a Biden ticket whoever is VP has to be acceptable in their own right. No one voted for Trump expecting Pence to ever take over. But if anyone votes for Biden, they have to be aware that there is a significant chance the running mate becomes President, either officially or unofficially. So if there is a Biden/Stacey Abrams ticket and you are not willing to accept a President Abrams, you better not vote for them at all.
If Creepy Joe is nominated, that means he was the most popular. Therefore by extention, his running mate would be less popular than him. If people were wanting the running mate to be President, they would have won the nomination themselves. So obviously no one wants the running mate to be President either.
They are so fucked if Biden gets the nomination.