There are more swing states that some here realize. There's not as many as there were in 2016, but still quite a bit. Keep in mind I consider swing states as those that have a shot of voting either blue or red this year.
These are the swing states,
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Maine at large
Maine 2nd Congressional District
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska 2nd Congressional District
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin
Previous swing states Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, and Iowa are no longer as such. Colorado and New Mexico have too many liberals and Hispanics to turn the tide for this election, especially with Gary Johnson no longer around. Likewise, I expect Ohio and Iowa to become reliable red states in the future. Anyone expecting Texas to turn blue is delusional as there are still enough Hispanics voting Republican there to turn the tide. That means both Trump and Biden have more safe states than last election. This year has no new swing states.
Trump needs to defend Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine's 2nd Congressional District, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, and North Carolina. Fortunately, I am optimistic that most of the will stay red this election. Trump is polling well in North Carolina, Georgia, and Maine's 2nd Congressional District and I think he'll keep Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District too. The real concerns are Arizona and Florida.
Both have a high Hispanic population and Arizona's Hispanics for the most part don't vote Republican. Florida has a higher percentage of Hispanic Republican but that is because of the Cuban population which are currently swing voters. My gut feeling says Arizona will stay red though that might be because Biden is not too far up in the polls (ahead 2.0 as of August 14th on RealClearPolitics). Trump needs to do whatever he can to keep these states because if he loses even one of these states, it will be nearly impossible to make ground up. If he loses Florida, the curtain has closed on his administration. In fact, I would argue that it will be
the tipping point state that decides the election because 29 electoral votes is a significant amount.
From there, if Trump can successfully defend all of these states, he has to then defend one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. All of these are trending blue this election and I would not be shocked if all of them went blue to be honest. If he wins even one, he wins the election. If he loses one, then he has to pick up a state with ten electoral votes or higher.
Potential pick-ups for Trump are Maine at-large, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. The thing is, Maine at-large, New Hampshire, and Virginia are not likely at all to turn red. Both Maine at-large and Virginia poll double digit leads and New Hampshire is close to it too. The only reason Virginia has a shot is because of its governor trying to strip away the right to bear arms but don't hold your breathe for it and even if it does, it will only be a one-time thing. I've heard Nevada had record registrations among GOP but we'll see if that amounts to anything. Right now, I think it will turn blue but my prediction might change once we see more polling.
But I think Minnesota has a decent shot of turning red. The riots have damaged Minneapolis's economy for years to come. When Minnesotan voters turn out to vote, do you think the riots and violent protests will get swing voters to think "Yeah, we need a man with dementia and a authoritarian Californian prosecutor in office"? No. Some might decide to sit out, but it will not convince people to vote blue. Not to mention the state has been trending progressively redder since last decade. Clinton won the state by less than 2%, but the disastrous effects of the riots might be what pushes it over. I think it will be the one state Trump manages to flip, and it's the one I want to see flip the most. Minnesota has been the state the most consistently voted Democratic in presidential election since 1960, voting only for Nixon in 1972. The Republicans have an opportunity to turn the state into a reddish-purple state while people are willing to listen to alternative options and they would be wise to do so.
Trump needs to go all in on Arizona, Florida, and Minnesota. The first two are needed to win the election and the latter is a potential Republican-leaning state like Ohio and Iowa are turning out to be. From there, defending either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania or picking up Nevada will also help Trump since you can bet there will be unfaithful electoral voters who will try to throw him out of office. 2020 is down to the wire and for once, we can say this could decide the course of America going forward.
Here is my current prediction map,
View attachment 1521661
Should note that Florida should really be a toss-up state since unlike Arizona or Minnesota, I can't say I lean either way with that state. The "Lean Red" is purely out of my bias. I give it 50/50 on Florida. Arizona and Minnesota are more like 60% Trump, 40% Biden.He won't carry Washington this year, that's for sure. We could, however, see both Washington and Oregon turn redder this year as a result of the riot, but we won't see flips from either states. The only state that could potentially flip red because is Minnesota and that's because Trump got pretty close to getting it last time. I'd say Virginia but that's also unlikely and if it does flip, it will be because of what happened when the governor tried to take all of the guns away. Plus I'm not recalling any riots that happened in the city but I also don't have the list of riots on hand.
In fact, I can see the coastal Western states - even California (given Harris's record in representing them will turn some of them off) - all vote redder this year but none of them will result in a flip. If that happens, it means Trump has less room to lose in the popular vote and still win the Electoral College.
