2025 Israel vs Iran War

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Using a nuclear bunker buster could be plausibly deniable because Fordow naturally has nuclear material inside and leaks of radionuclides would be logical, amirite?
It would be obvious because there would be 2 sources of radioactive material, one below ground that would probably be more concentrated and one above ground that would go all over.
 
Now that is fucking weak sauce if true. Democracies are lame when it comes time to raise peoples passions. Iran is a "Democracy" right now. Just one with Theocratic control. Are there any people left with a claim to the Sassanid Dynasty around?

My Fellow Countrymen,

The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing. Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground and has lost control of the situation. What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together, we will pass through this sharp turn in history.

In these difficult days, my heart is with all the defenseless citizens who have been harmed and have fallen victim to Khamenei's warmongering and delusions. For years, I have tried to prevent our homeland from being consumed by the fire of war.

The end of the Islamic Republic is the end of its 46-year war against the Iranian nation.

The regime’s apparatus of repression is falling apart. All it takes now is a nationwide uprising to put an end to this nightmare once and for all.

Now is the time to rise; the time to reclaim Iran. Let us all come forward—from Bandar Abbas to Bandar Anzali, from Shiraz to Isfahan, from Tabriz to Zahedan, from Mashhad to Ahvaz, from Shahr-e Kord to Kermanshah—and bring about the end of this regime.

Do not fear the day after the fall of the Islamic Republic. Iran will not descend into civil war or instability. We have a plan for Iran’s future and its flourishing. We are prepared for the first hundred days after the fall, for the transitional period, and for the establishment of a national and democratic government—by the Iranian people and for the Iranian people.

To the military, law enforcement, security forces, and state employees—many of whom have been sending me messages in recent days—I say: Do not stand against the Iranian people for the sake of a regime whose fall has begun and is inevitable. Do not sacrifice yourselves for a decaying regime. By standing with the people, you can save your lives. Play a historic role in the transition from the Islamic Republic, and take part in building the future of Iran.

A free and flourishing Iran lies ahead of us. May we be together soon.

Long live Iran!
Long live the Iranian nation!

N. Korea slams Israeli attacks on Iran as 'crime against humanity',
SEOUL (AFP) - North Korea on Thursday slammed Israel's launching of strikes to spark its conflict with Iran, and warned the United States and European powers against "fanning up the flames of war", according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.

The North expressed "serious concern" over "Israel's military attack and resolutely denounces it," the spokesperson said, adding that Israel's killing of civilians was "an unpardonable crime against humanity."

"The illegal act of state-sponsored terrorism by Israel (is) raising the danger of a new all-out war in the Middle East region," said the statement, which was published by state-run news agency KCNA.

Putin: I do not even want to discuss the possibility of the assassination of Khamenei #Al -Hadath

A source tells us that the upcoming (IsraeIi) strikes will likely be different from those seen before.

CNN’s Fred Pleitgen and team have arrived in Tehran, Iran. They are the first Western journalists to enter Iran since this latest conflict began.

Trump pressed aides on whether the bunker-buster plan to bomb Iran's Fordow nuclear facility will work. Pentagon officials told him they were confident it would. - Barak Ravid

A U.S. official said the Israelis told the Trump administration that while they may not be able to reach deep enough into the mountain with bombs, they may "do it with humans."
 
Using a nuclear bunker buster could be plausibly deniable because Fordow naturally has nuclear material inside and leaks of radionuclides would be logical, amirite?
Why would we have to deny it? The USA has never signed on to a "No First Use" policy and has indicated repeatedly that if the target is nuclear in nature it could use nukes to destroy it. Nuking Fordow would actually send precisely the message the USA wants to send about nuclear proliferation in general.
 
Khamenei published a cope-filled yap session today, likely from his bunker. This is the original quality, its quite poor and it sounds like he is in an empty room or an echo chamber. He seems distressed and aloof.

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I just find it fucking absurd that the regime is internally headed by a senile retard in his 80s whose successors are better targets than he himself is.
 
Major General Newburry's office right now...


The Russians themselves don't even know what they have or where.
Oh I can believe it. Without giving too much away, I've only ever been tangentially involved in the power generation side of things, but when you hear some of the tales coming out of former Eastern Bloc countries its a miracle somebody hasn't taken the plunge yet. Theres enough for a spin-off show of American Pickers out there.
 
Using a nuclear bunker buster could be plausibly deniable because Fordow naturally has nuclear material inside and leaks of radionuclides would be logical, amirite?
radiological analysis of the fallout could tell the difference
a stockpile of enriched uranium leaves different kinds of radionuclides behind than the aftermath of a modern multi stage nuclear warhead
 
You have to hand it to Russia. They really were the "backyard wrestling" of nuclear powers.

I wonder how much stuff they have stuck in a rail siding somewhere.
Honestly I do. Their designs (for the time) were far superior to american attempts (according to us scientists) at multi stage thermonuclear weapons and were the first to achieve 100MT. There were designs up to a GT idealized but were actually never put into production as you'd blow away half the atmosphere around it into space and as well you are breaking thru the limit of atmosphere cooperating in thermonuclear re-ignition and might just ignite the entire world with it. The activation altitude is so high that you would be basically bordering to half space for maximum effect and it's just not that much useful. If you go lower it's just an overkill and the plasma sphere would touch the ground and so on. A total mess. However the soviet or any russian regime is such that people die due to alcoholism and bureaucracy and never achieve greatness.

Their calculations that are used for modern stealth aircraft were published in public papers without any notice whatsoever.
So is it still better to use already made tritium than to use Li6? I'd imagine that it would since a part of the energy made by the bomb has to go towards processing the Li6 (giving it a neutron to make it split into Hi4 and H3 and then making H3 fuse with H2), maybe I'm wrong.
Already made tritium is beneficial as the reaction doesn't eat neutrons and you can start fusing D-T without pre-reaction.
The benefit of lithium is that it is a solid and doesn't decompose.
LI6 eats neutrons and LI7 eats and releases a neutron, but it's not a very high energy one to sustain a chain and would just turn to breeding material. Not a waste still.
If Russia was very involved in their nuclear buildiup it would be possible but they're more invested in drones and regular missiles no?
I'm not saying they didn't get help but there's very little for russia to gain with Iran. Drones are basically crumpets for them. They already have oil and all other nuclear tech.
I never knew polonium was used for that, just thought it was another (mostly useless) crazy radioactive element.
You can use actinium too.
Both of these are an absolute bitch to handle and process. They are very active, create decay heat, gasses, irradiate your entire bomb and personnel and are an absolute nightmare to breed and refine.
Cost of Polonium is 50 trillion USD per kg. Compared to Pu at 7 million USD and uranium at 100USD/kg it's just not viable except if you want to make a tea with it.
 
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Can Israel End Iran’s Nuclear Program?​

A conversation with leading American physicist and nuclear weapons expert David Albright about what Israel’s campaign has achieved so far and whether U.S. military assistance is needed​


dropping a couple 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on the most important and heavily protected piece of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Such a strike would potentially reset the entirety of international arms control.
A successful U.S. attack on Fordow would establish a precedent that a would-be atomic scofflaw couldn’t ignore, with Washington acting as the final bulwark against the spread of nuclear weapons in cases where the NPT regime failed.

You could probably convince Trump to go through with the attack with this alone.

He would be the one to flip the table over. He would be the one to decide who does and doesn't get nukes, not some bureaucracy.

Seems very Trumpian
 
The Russians themselves don't even know what they have or where.

I was told point blank, at a Certain Job I had in the 1990s, that we do not discuss Russian nuclear material - ever, at work. File it all under "nothing ever happens" but half of us were kinda sure one of the 'stans (prior to 911) was going to do something Real Fun one day and it was going to be traced back to Chelyabinsk or some other garden spot in the FUSSR.

TBH I'm kind of amazed it wasn't.
A lot of nuclear material from USSR was smuggled out for cheap after the collapse. Including the RTG pucks. Some was traced to the middle east and probably ended in Pakistan or similar.
Using a nuclear bunker buster could be plausibly deniable because Fordow naturally has nuclear material inside and leaks of radionuclides would be logical, amirite?
Nukes have a very specific radioactive signature that you can detect in decay products. You can differ them even from reactor products that escaped into air.
There's no deniability here.
The increased risk is that the neutron+xray wave also sets off the underground uranium storages and then you have a big big fuckup on your hands. Shitty fizzled material that is mixed with dust and is escaping to the atmosphere in an area that is too radiocontaminated to seal.
 
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