Depends. Southern Ontario would be a rustbelt state with a gutted manufacturing sector so I could see them being something like Michigan or Pennsylvania. Honestly, the Prairies would be in a better state since onerous government regulations currently handcuff our O&G sector in this timeline. Say what you want about the Americans, but they actually build shit rather than talk about it and would rush to develop with valuable resources like petroleum, gas, uranium, potash, and other potential minerals present in the former Rupert's Land. Something like the tanker and pipeline bans would never happen so Alberta could become a mini-Texas. Similarly, there would be a greater military presence there and the far north because of its strategic value. Productivity would be higher too since there is actual motivation to invest and innovate because we wouldn't be such priggish weaklings.