CN China's population shrinks for the first time in six decades

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https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/China-s-population-shrinks-for-the-first-time-in-six-decades

China's population shrinks for the first time in six decades​

Decline jeopardizes Xi's ambition to overtake U.S. as world's biggest economy

An elderly woman rides a tricycle in a village on the outskirts of Beijing. The world's most populous nation is grappling with a low birth rate. © Reuters
CK TAN, Nikkei staff writerJanuary 17, 2023 11:30 JSTUpdated on January 17, 2023 12:22 JST
SHANGHAI -- China's population shrank last year for the first time since the early 1960s, jeopardizing President Xi Jinping's ambition to overtake the U.S. as the world's biggest economy.
Data released on Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed China's population stood at 1.41175 billion in 2022. The birthrate was the lowest on record, and the death rate the highest since 1976. The natural population growth rate was a negative 0.6 per thousand, a slide from 2021's 0.34.
The population contraction confirmed the fears of officials and demographers who have raised the alarm for years as Chinese couples delay marriage. India is now expected to replace China as the world's most populous country this year.
Beijing introduced a "three-child policy" in 2020 to arrest the population decline, replacing an earlier "two-child policy" in 2016, which itself dialed back on the controversial "one-child policy" previously used to curb population growth.
The ruling Communist Party vowed at its national congress in October to introduce policies to boost birthrates and lower the cost of having babies.
Under a five-year economic plan through 2025, Beijing proposed gradually extending the retirement age to 65 for men and 60 for women, up from the current 60 and 55. It also promised to provide a better workplace environment for mothers and pregnant women.
The fall in the birthrate was the first since the Great Leap Forward famine in the late 1950s and came after the country announced a sharp increase in COVID deaths to nearly 60,000 in the five weeks through Jan. 12.
As in some other Asian countries, the uncertainty brought by the pandemic has added to young people's reluctance to get married and have children.

 

[A-Stump]

The official death toll of covid there is around 5K. There have been a lot of videos coming out recently, past month or so, of hospitals crammed with caskets and mass graves being dug so that certainly won't help.

 

[Absolutego]

The scary part is if Xi tries to take a page from Pootin's book and try to increase the population of his rapidly dying country by attempting to annex Taiwan

If a war with a country with nothing to offer other than grain (Ukraine) has fucked up the world order so much, imagine what happens when an important link in global chip industry gets fucked

Intel already opened a plant in Oregon and the TSMC is opening a new plant in Arizona. It's actually quite funny as you can find threads of Taiwanese nationalists complaining about Americans stealing their IP going forward.
Ukraine rattled the fuck out of western powers and Taiwanese companies saw the strategic weakness there.

 

[GumballFapper]

Intel already opened a plant in Oregon and the TSMC is opening a new plant in Arizona. It's actually quite funny as you can find threads of Taiwanese nationalists complaining about Americans stealing their IP going forward.
Ukraine rattled the fuck out of western powers and Taiwanese companies saw the strategic weakness there.

Those two plants at their best could make the chips necessary for the US military devices. They can't service the rest of 200 countries in the world and most probably not even the US civilian population.

 

[Absolutego]

Those two plants at their best could make the chips necessary for the US military devices. They can't service the rest of 200 countries in the world and most probably not even the US civilian population.

I believe both Intel and TSMC are opening a few more in the Eastern US, but you're right that it's not nearly enough volume to totally replace Taiwan. They also take ages to build out. I wonder if any of the Western European countries get one.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

I believe both Intel and TSMC are opening a few more in the Eastern US, but you're right that it's not nearly enough volume to totally replace Taiwan. They also take ages to build out. I wonder if any of the Western European countries get one.

They almost assuredly will. A lot of industries are suddenly extremely interested in on-shoring some significant percentage of their supply chain, even at a relatively increased cost. The goal of the production is not "Meet world demand in a new location" But "Meet a lot of X location demand in X location". There will still be major hubs of 'most' production around, but you will be able to get 'some' of what you need even if seagoing trade for a good collapsed again. Better some than none.

That being said, this'll be a 20 year thing - It will take time to spread the expertise and supply lines to account for this, and there's a long lead time between building a chip factory, actually producing the first chips, and then achieving acceptable yield on those chips. Once that's proven, we'll probably see a second wave of expansion to soak up any excess domestic demand. Past that, who knows.

 

[Kel1 shi1]

the rural poor decide to revolt.

It will be the new wealth losing their shit that will revolt. The poor will not be losing anything and can farm for food.

 

[The Mass Shooter Ron Soye]

I believe both Intel and TSMC are opening a few more in the Eastern US, but you're right that it's not nearly enough volume to totally replace Taiwan. They also take ages to build out. I wonder if any of the Western European countries get one.

News from December:

TSMC said to be considering building its first European fab

Taiwanese company won't rule it out amid reports execs are visiting Dresden, Germany

www.theregister.com

That being said, this'll be a 20 year thing - It will take time to spread the expertise and supply lines to account for this, and there's a long lead time between building a chip factory, actually producing the first chips, and then achieving acceptable yield on those chips. Once that's proven, we'll probably see a second wave of expansion to soak up any excess domestic demand. Past that, who knows.

Maybe we'll see an epic stagnation of process nodes after 15-20 years so that all new or revamped advanced fabs are targeting about the same transistor density and same post-FinFET transistor type. Or 3D becomes the new marketing push and that needs its own fab upgrades.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

Maybe we'll see an epic stagnation of process nodes after 15-20 years so that all new or revamped advanced fabs are targeting about the same transistor density and same post-FinFET transistor type. Or 3D becomes the new marketing push and that needs its own fab upgrades.

The last generation of FinFET is already in progress, and Intels already revealed their next plan in RibbonFET. Major technology changes like RibbonFET take a long fucking time to put through, but they also started on it years ago. RibbonFET is technically a 3d architecture, since you're stacking them. But there's constant running plans and work by everyone to find the next node a decade before they need it, they're not giving up on better yet.

The new fabs coming online are going to be current or last gen FinFET though - RibbonFET and such are leading edge, but there is still plenty of demand and need for the trailing edge nodes, and those matured spaces are far more easy to be economical in, a lot of the pitfalls are understood, and a lot of suppliers use them. There's an upper limit to the compute density you need in a car electronics suite, industrial machinery, etc. They don't need cutting edge, they just need good enough, and will happily trade size and performance for cost. Leading edge will likely be TSMC bound for the foreseeable future.

 

[The Mass Shooter Ron Soye]

The last generation of FinFET is already in progress, and Intels already revealed their next plan in RibbonFET. Major technology changes like RibbonFET take a long fucking time to put through, but they also started on it years ago. RibbonFET is technically a 3d architecture, since you're stacking them. But there's constant running plans and work by everyone to find the next node a decade before they need it, they're not giving up on better yet.

The new fabs coming online are going to be current or last gen FinFET though - RibbonFET and such are leading edge, but there is still plenty of demand and need for the trailing edge nodes, and those matured spaces are far more easy to be economical in, a lot of the pitfalls are understood, and a lot of suppliers use them. There's an upper limit to the compute density you need in a car electronics suite, industrial machinery, etc. They don't need cutting edge, they just need good enough, and will happily trade size and performance for cost. Leading edge will likely be TSMC bound for the foreseeable future.

I'm aware of the need for trailing edge nodes. Didn't feel like writing an essay so I condensed it into "advanced" fabs.

By "same post-FinFET transistor type" I mean whatever the "last node" uses over a decade or two from now. There might be some diversification for different applications. But in general there are a few GAAFET nodes planned, which RibbonFET is, then options beyond that like complementary FETs. It might be possible to do multiple types on the same wafer if needed, kind of like TSMC FinFlex.

Eventually, we might not get new node "shrinks" of any significance, or they will arrive very slowly like once every 5+ years. That could give breathing room for competitors like Intel, TSMC, Samsung, perhaps even SMIC, to catch up to each other.

Maybe they need to make major changes to fabs to do 3D fabrication that is more like a skyscraper compared to a hut. Something far beyond TSMC's Wafer-on-Wafer and whatever 2-layer RibbonFET thing Intel was talking about recently.

 

[Snekposter]

Also, contrary to popular belief the US military uses chips that are old, old, old, because unsurprisingly something like a missile that only needs instructions on how to get from Point A to Point B and isn't expected to be intact afterwards isn't the sort of the thing you want to be putting the latest chipset from Intel in. The bulk of the advanced technology lies in the overall avionics, such as any guidance and stabilization systems, plus any processing software to filter out interference and aid in targeting.

 

[Slap47]

China's population is rapidly aging from what I understand. I'm curious to see how chink boomers dying is going to effect China's geopolitical standing in the next few decades.

Do not worry. Their obesity crisis and lack of public healthcare will fix that.

Did he get his vasectomy? Overpopulation is only a third world problem. Every other country is shrinking without immigration expect Israel. It's definitely helps when you get a free money rain from oligarchs and the US, and are allowed to be nationalist. I also think a lot of these overpopulation fags secretly hate living in their crammed cities.

Israeli population growth is Hasidic Jews who refuse to pay taxes, work or fight in the military.

Not a good setup.

 

[Matajudios]

Do not worry. Their obesity crisis and lack of public healthcare will fix that.



Israeli population growth is Hasidic Jews who refuse to pay taxes, work or fight in the military.

Not a good setup.

Even the secular Jews have more children there than anywhere in the west. Also they aren't some monolith, I mean the secular Jews didn't appear out of thin air.
Becoming more religious is preferable to dying out either way.

 

[Archie_Kimkicker]

Microplastics for the win!

 

[AnonymousKot]

If only the nigger and kike population would shrink as well...

 

[The handsome tard]

From what I read it actually declined a few years ago.

What you mean is that it declined to anyone willing to pay attention. They just felt like "admitting" it now.

 

[Father Karras]

I don't know (nor do I really care). We had a falling because he was a MAJOR Hillary bro and he took umbrage when I expressed my distaste for her on Facebook. His usual tactic was to spout banalities about "trying to understand different points of view" and attempt to gaslight the hell out of me. However, I decided to stand my ground and he went ballistic by insinuating that I was an ingrate for not accepting his superior wisdom before un-friending me. I haven't heard from him since, which was just over six years ago and I never attempt contact since.

I kinda wanna see it now, but you know, could dox yourself with that

 

[JackoVerde]

supposedly china may have lied about its population numbers from 30mil to 60 million people at the high end.

 

[anustart76]

China and Japan took different routes, but ended up in similar places with their younger population. I guess this is just what happen when you don't give young people, especially men, real opportunities for growth and expect them to just go along with the system. Even worse in China, there is literally no easy fix for the literal shortage of women. Japan could at least change society a little and get back on track, but the culture is likely too damaged in China to fix any time soon.

 

[Manul Otocolobus]

Maybe we'll see an epic stagnation of process nodes after 15-20 years so that all new or revamped advanced fabs are targeting about the same transistor density and same post-FinFET transistor type. Or 3D becomes the new marketing push and that needs its own fab upgrades.

This will be happening within the next 10 years or so. We are literally at only 10x the true limits of physics at this point with silicon. Something is going to have to give; traditional transistor design as we know it with node shrinks doesn't have much room left.

 

[Rei is Shit.]

Also, contrary to popular belief the US military uses chips that are old, old, old, because unsurprisingly something like a missile that only needs instructions on how to get from Point A to Point B and isn't expected to be intact afterwards isn't the sort of the thing you want to be putting the latest chipset from Intel in. The bulk of the advanced technology lies in the overall avionics, such as any guidance and stabilization systems, plus any processing software to filter out interference and aid in targeting.

Thats not really true. The F-35 is using a powerPC chip of the same generation as the xbox 360 and PS3. The F-22 is using a pentium 2.

The problem with any computer hardware in military stuff is it needs to be radiation hardened, proven bugproof, and a billion other autistic requirements. All of that stuff takes years to certify.

The only place any chip younger than a half a decade or so is getting used is experimental weapons.