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💼 CareercowDonald J Trump - 45th/47th President of the USA, convicted felon, Epstein bro, Putin/Netanyahu simp, serial liar, sore loser, cheat and the Chris-Chan of Presidents. THIS IS NOT USPG2.
Hitler was quite similar in that he abused law and the democratic process to consolidate power and then tore down the Weimar Republic from within. He needed several attempts to do so and the Nazis were even banned for a time. This systematic undermining of democratic institutions has a very similar ring to it. It's something that people are not very familiar with. Hitler needed a long time and had failed attempts to "get in", almost disappearing into complete irrelevance for a time in his political career. It was not smooth sailing for him.
I still don't see Trump as "OMG orange Hitler" for the simple fact that Hitler was a true believer to the very end while I don't believe that Trump believes in anything. He's a used car salesman, a flimflam artist. If he thought advocating for mandatory gender transitions would grant him power, he would do it without hesitation. While grifters like Trump are dangerous, they lack the mindset people like Hitler possess. He has no vision. The real danger is that he is paving the way for a successor who might.
After WW2 was over Germany's laws and constitution were very carefully formulated to make it impossible for another Hitler to abuse the process like Hitler did. Amongst other fail-safes, there is no single political position in Germany that has as much power as the American president has in the US as a result. I don't see these reforms happening in the US. No government institution ever reduces its own power willingly.
MTG resigning also means Massie's vote carries just a bit more weight. Trump could try to woo him to get him on his side, but as we see he's probably seething over this.
Now I understand why miggers are so hard behind Trump.
Cause if Trump goes, this chud takes the reigns and will enact the acceptable kind of happy illusions whether you like it or not.
This the same fag who said Ukraine and Russia should stop killing each other and trade and shit just a few days ago.
Let us not hope someone breaks into his house, rapes his wife, kidnaps his kids and he'll accept them as a roommate.
Trump is complaining about Leonard Leo, likely because he helped through the federalist society getting so many conservative judge picks done, along with complaining about everyone else against his tariffs.
Trump is complaining about Leonard Leo, likely because he helped through the federalist society getting so many conservative judge picks done, along with complaining about everyone else against his tariffs.
He's still calling the Democrats who rightfully said the military can refuse illegal orders traitors, that they belong in jail and are committing sedition. I can only imagine what's being said in the comments.
He's still calling the Democrats who rightfully said the military can refuse illegal orders traitors, that they belong in jail and are committing sedition. I can only imagine what's being said in the comments.
What is this unhinged lunatic paedophile seething about? The military is supposed to protect the interests of the nation and people, not one orange child molester's hatred of browns.
I can't believe there's someone I want to see croak more than Boogie2988 but here we are.
Trump is complaining about Leonard Leo, likely because he helped through the federalist society getting so many conservative judge picks done, along with complaining about everyone else against his tariffs.
Every Trump speech checklist: >We're earning GORILLIONS of DOLLARS
>I stopped 69 WARS
>Approval ratings in orbit
>Inflation is Exflation now
>Sleepy Joe Biden Obama Hilary
>Literally Greatest Time in History
>Democrats are evil corrupt icky poo hoaxers
>MAH MIGA
He absolutely believes it. He thinks he’s getting great trade deals due to tariff threats even though it’s all been fake or stuff like Qatar mentioning existing investments and goals which Trump then misheard and imagined he was obtaining for the US. He isn’t willing to accept he hasn’t achieved anything other than hurting the US economy.
This post broadly covers the current status of the Ukraine war and the peace process.
I've been more or less closely following the topic for years. I wrote this for myself, to order my thoughts, but I think it might be of interest to others.
It’s related to and covers Trump, so I figure it’s not too out of place here. In case you saw the earlier version, I added a bit and edited for clarity.
I tried to disentangle a convoluted web of relationships, and due to the wide scope, there's probably some errors and things that didn’t come to mind while creating this, but I think it's broadly correct. I had to simplify things to put them into writing, but I hope not so much that it creates an incorrect impression in people without background knowledge.
I want to note that I correctly predicted Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine through today back in early spring of this year. Ukraine
As has been the case since the start of the war, most Ukrainians want peace, but so far, the only offer the Russians have provided is the domination of the entirety of Ukraine by Russia, which is seen as unacceptable.
The Russian increase of the production of long-range missiles and drones has in an increasingly large impact on Ukrainian industry and airfields, while the slow attrition of Ukrainian forces on the front lines is showing an effect there. The Armed Forces of Ukraine struggle to replenish losses, mainly due to large numbers of AWOLs. These are a result of the political and military leadership’s wasting of lives of soldiers to write good reports in the ultra short-term. There are no reforms trying to tackle this, as the top leadership is the main perpetrator. This issue has been reported on and complained about for years.
Russians have also caught up to Ukraine in regards to drone warfare and are now crippling Ukrainian logistics tens of kilometres from the front line, which complicates the situation.
A major issue is that the Russian military industry can expand and run without interruptions, because Ukraine lacks long range fire power. If it were provided, it could have an impact on the situation on the battlefield in the near term.
The Ukrainian strategy is to last and increase the cost of the war for the Russians, until the Russian leadership determines that the price of continuing the war his higher than price of ending the war, and agrees to negotiations.
Russia
There are several reasons why Russia invaded Ukraine, but I think the only one that required a war to resolve is Putin’s desire to unite the three Russian people into one nation. Any analysis of the root causes, and of possible solutions, needs to be mindful of this, otherwise it will draw wrong conclusions. Any peace deal that doesn’t see Ukraine absorbed by Russia must account for this goal when developing security mechanisms.
The Russian military suffers higher losses than Ukraine's, but since these can be replenished, that doesn't have an impact on the battlefield in the short to medium term. They are building a large stockpile of armed vehicles for an unknown purpose. Recently those occasionally saw use again, after being largely absent from the battlefield for most of the year, with mixed success: faster advances in some areas, at a high price in vehicles, but a lower cost in meat.
Overall, the appointment of Belousov had the anticipated effect.
The Russian economy is increasingly starting to show signs of cracking though, as does the federal budget. Regional budgets look pretty grim too. From the Russian side, this war needs to end as a soon as possible, and not drag on for another year, but there's no breakdown looming in the near future. For now, these economic issues mostly affect standard of life for ordinary Russians, and the worst won’t be seen until the unsustainable wartime funding stops.
The Ukrainian strike campaign is effective, but doesn't cause enough damage to impact the war so far. Reduction of gasoline production means that poor people can no longer afford to drive their car, and others are forced to drive less than they used to. The government doesn't need to care about it.
Russians for the most part hope for an end to the war, but see it as essential that Russia wins, regardless of why or how it started. Most don't think a change in government can have a positive result, so there is no thought of changing who rules.
Europe
EU/NATO see themselves as a probable target of Russian aggression after the end of the Ukraine conflict and assess that Trump favours Russia over NATO. Defence spending increases and re-armament have been happening since the start of the Ukraine War and have accelerated since Trump was inaugurated.
EU/NATO's goal is to delay further alignment of the US with Russia, and a possible US withdrawal from NATO for as long as possible to prepare defences and ramp up arms production. Plans for war time logistics and handling of casualties are developed. New factories are being built, and existing ones expanded, but it takes time to do that.
Europeans ultimately just want to grill, but their Eastern neighbor does not permit that.
They flatter Trump and invite him to fancy conferences that stroke his ego to buy time.
USA
Despite mayor successes by Russian information warfare campaigns, a majority of American citizens, as well as members of Congress, see Russia as an enemy, Putin as untrustworthy, and Ukraine as worth supporting.
The US government consists of several factions with different world views. The rabid pro-Russians are a small minority, though they are concentrated around the levers of power. They still need to contend with the conservatives, who have a more materialistic and "realpolitical" view of international relations, in contrast to the ideology/emotion based populist approach represented by the MAGA movement.
By "emotion" I mean the idiosyncratic personal views of a number of leaders at the top, that rely on social media conditioned "gut feelings" rather than deliberations and fact-driven analysis. Examples of such leaders would be Hegseth, Vance, and Trump.
There is a core of politicians in the MAGA movement who have a deranged, irrational hatred of Europe and NATO. Vance and Hegseth are high profile members of this group.
The United States is withdrawing forces from Europe to align the US’ stance with MAGA ideology and considers NATO a burden that offers very little to the US. This is combined with sabre rattling against and demands for territory of current NATO members Canada and Denmark.
Overall, the lack of strong central leadership gives competing factions a lot of leeway to make decisions on their own and implement them without communicating, which leads to contradictory and incoherent actions, and strategic paralysis.
Donald Trump
To understand events, it's important to understand the man who has the greatest ability to affect outcomes, by virtue of having available to him the largest amount of military force, economic weight and stockpiles of equipment, which is the president of the US.
Donald Trump:
- has significantly below average intelligence
- shows signs of increasing senility, such as forgetfulness, lack of ability to reign in his emotions and bouts of anger
- is a malignant narcissist
He surrounds himself with yes-men who affirm everything he says and ejects those who contradict a view he holds or disagree with him from his presence. Facts don’t matter, that's not how Trump's psyche works.
This environment lets his narcissism grow unchecked, which leads to his ability to deal with adversity decreasing over time. He simply rages, incapable of compromise.
It has led to Trump developing an increasingly delusional view of his own abilities, the situation in world at large, and how he is perceived. He for example believes that Putin and Xi respect him and see him as their friend, because he likes them and looks up to them. This is not true though, with catastrophic prospects for the security situation in the world.
USA vs Russia
Trump subconsciously considers Putin as someone he looks up to, an idol. This materializes as a desire to be on good terms with him and seeking his approval.
Due to his low intelligence, and delusional view of his own self worth, Trump is incapable of telling manipulative flattery from genuine esteem.
This is exploited by Putin:
- He says nice things to Trump and thus forestalls any actions by the US that would increase pressure on Russia to end the war.
- To Trump, Putin is the only person who is on his level, and therefore Trump is highly likely to believe Putin's words over those of his own intelligence services. Putin’s words shape Trump’s views of the cause and status of the conflict.
Trump also presses for peace not for any higher moral, or at least geopolitical reason, but due to his monomaniacal obsession with getting a Nobel Peace prize. His lack of patience means that he is obsessed with ending the conflict earlier, on any terms, which paradoxically prolongs the conflict, because it signals to the Russians that they have as much time as they need, and that the US will not pressure them to end the war by increasing the cost of the war for Russia. Trump will never receive this prize, so his pursuit of it is yet more evidence of his cognitive inadequacy.
The US negotiator, Witkoff, is a friend of Trump. He also has significantly below average intelligence. He has no subject matter knowledge, but doesn’t accept advice from American experts. Instead, he blindly believes what the Russians tell him about the history of the conflict and the situation on the ground. As a result, he mainly serves as a spokesperson for the Kremlin in Washington. He has repeatedly catastrophically misunderstood what the Russians told him and lacks the cognitive abilities to relay their position to American diplomats and officials back in the US.
His incompetence and Trump’s affection for Putin have allowed the Russians to delay any pressure on them to end the war for 10 months.
A first round of new sanctions finally took effect on the 21st, but the Russians are currently playing him and Trump again:
All "negotiations" for the last 10 months have been the Russians handing Witkoff demands while offering nothing in return, and Witkoff passing them on.
The Americans once again find themselves in a position to coerce their allies to accept a plan worked out by their enemies that is on its face ludicrous, impossible to implement, and goes against even American demands for the American role in a post-war order.
Trump is once again being used by the Russians to pressure and blackmail Ukraine into signing a surrender. If Ukraine surrenders, Russia wins. If it doesn’t, Trump sees it as defiance of him personally and does what he can to harm Ukraine. [Significant developments have taken place, see "The 28-point Peace Plan Scandal" below.]
Anecdote: After months of negotiations between the US, EU and UA, the Americans decided to provide Tomahawks to Ukraine, which would allow the Ukrainians to hit Russian military industry. Even the Pentagon finally agreed that these were not needed for US readiness.
Trump called Putin to ask for permission, Putin said no, and the missiles were cancelled.
Asia
I don’t have background knowledge on Asia, so I will write very little here.
The much talked about "pivot to Asia" has not occurred and is no longer being considered. The US government uses extremely hostile rhetoric towards its traditional allies in the region, while Trump is developing a one-sided friendship with Xi, that mirrors the one he has with Putin. A forecast that doesn’t take that into account is likely to be wrong.
I assume you read the above before reading the following, so I’m not going to repeat things, but you might benefit from reading the below on its own regardless, since it provides an insight into how Trump's deficits affect US foreign policy.
An additional piece of context:
Following Witkoff’s catastrophic blunder that was the Alaska meeting, Rubio was inserted into the preparations of the Budapest meeting, since Witkoff will ALWAYS declare that the Russians made great concessions and are ready for peace, regardless of what was actually said.
Rubio correctly concluded that the Russians were not interested in ending the war and the meeting was off.
After this new "breakthrough" was revealed, Witkoffites immediately suggested that this means the Budapest meeting is back, but alas, see below.
The 28-point Peace Plan Scandal
This scandal began to properly unfold after I posted the above assessment on the evening of the 21st, US time, and further supports many points I made in it. It’s quite serendipitous.
This is an ongoing development though, so its outcome is as of right now undetermined.
Timeline
It was known for a while that Witkoff and Dmitriev were in talks, but little was released about the content, and little was expected, since both are low level people.
Last week. Trump started to again make comments about expecting an end to the war in the very near future.
On the 18th, out of nowhere, a leak of a supposed Russia-Ukrainian peace plan appeared in the press. Witkoff, being the clown he is, tweeted what was clearly supposed to be a DM “K leaked this”, referring to Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian negotiator. He quickly deleted this tweet, but it had already been screenshotted by reliable sources. This confirmed that the leaks were true and substantially right.
On the 20th, mouthpieces of Trump arrived in Kyiv to bluster and preen and threaten diplomats present into signing the deal, in the style typical of Trump era American diplomats.
On the 21st, Trump confirmed that the plan is serious and threatens Ukraine with serious consequences should Zelenskyy refuse to sign it.
On the 22nd, everything starts to fall apart. There are contradictory claims about who authored the plan, who had input in it, at what stage, whether it is supposed to be a final agreement, merely a proposal, or just a think piece. Different parts of the US government openly accuse each other of lying. Trump now says it is merely a proposal and subject to further discussions. As of the evening of the 22nd, the chaos is growing.
Throughout all this circus, the Russian side said very little, merely indicated that they do not see this as a final solution, rejected some points in it, but overall publicly mostly ignored the storm that engulfed Western diplomatic circles.
The Plan
The plan was noted for containing grammatical structures that are very unusual in English, but very common in Russian, suggesting that this was a poorly translated Russian proposal with few, if any, American inputs.
What is immediately apparent, is that the plan is incredibly poorly drafted. It contains a mix of ludicrously specific provisions (European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland, Ukraine is not permitted to specifically launch missiles at Moscow and St. Petersburg????) and insanely vague ones (All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.).
Going point by point is beyond the scope of this, but the plan was considered by analysts to be
-vague, unbalanced, imprecise
-written by a legally illiterate person, because unenforceable, nonsensical, contradictory
-no enforcement mechanism even for the enforceable aspects, key points left entirely unaddressed
-includes provisions Ukraine has no way of implementing, such as a reform of NATO (!!!!) and distribution of EU funds, EU membership plan – NATO and EU were not consulted about this whatsoever and are not signatories
-makes demands of the US that the US government has categorically refused (specifically use of US military force against Russia should Russia violate the treaty)
Reactions
Panic in Europe and Ukraine, as this seemed like the worst case come true. Trump is finally deciding to sink NATO and align with Russia, since this plan is utterly unacceptable, even on a physical level but is pushed with threats and vitriol
Glee in the Russian information space, where it was perceived as cunning Russian diplomats throwing a hand grenade into the Western coalition, once again, and it blowing up spectacularly, once again.
Everything is in flux now, as NOBODY, not the Republican party, not NATO, not the EU, not Ukraine, and not even the Russians, see this as anything worthwhile, but Trump lacks the cognitive abilities to appreciate that.
It seems that Trump and Witkoff and perhaps some similarly inadequate people in Trump’s circle, were the only ones who didn’t immediately recognize what an abortion this was.
Conclusions
This confirms several diagnoses. Many of these were first made back in spring and have been confirmed over and over again since then.
-Witkoff is an incompetent moron and serves as little more than a mail man for the Russians.
-US “negotiations” with the Russians consist of the Russians handing the Americans demands and the Americans then trying to coerce their allies to surrender to those terms on behalf of the Russians.
-Trump has a delusional view of the world and does not understand what is going on.
-Trump either lacks the cognitive abilities to parse this plan, or at, best is too neglectful to bother to do so before threatening to use the force of the US government to coerce allies to sign it.
-Trump has a severe inherent pro-Russian bias that shows itself at every opportunity and constant work is required to keep it suppressed.
-The US leadership is shattered into factions that pursue their own ends without coordinating or communicating with each other. This negatively impacts the US’ ability to act on the world stage and coherently pursue goals. Since the President is inherently incapable of being a strong leader, this will likely only get worse over time.
He's still calling the Democrats who rightfully said the military can refuse illegal orders traitors, that they belong in jail and are committing sedition. I can only imagine what's being said in the comments.
He also claims he has found lawyers corrupt enough to back him up.
Stuff like this shows that the institutional order of the US is broken.
In a functional country, any of half a dozen things he did this month would be grounds for impeachment.
He’s only made about $400 billion thus far from tariffs. I say “only” because he’s on track to having a deficit of over $3 trillion this fiscal year, almost an entire order of magnitude higher than the money he’s collected from tariffs. Even if those imaginary DOGE cuts actually happened and he saved a trillion dollars, he still has a huge deficit to fill. He of course conveniently leaves that out. That is utterly disastrous and would be a crisis if it was any other president.
He's still calling the Democrats who rightfully said the military can refuse illegal orders traitors, that they belong in jail and are committing sedition. I can only imagine what's being said in the comments.
Panic in Europe and Ukraine, as this seemed like the worst case come true. Trump is finally deciding to sink NATO and align with Russia, since this plan is utterly unacceptable, even on a physical level but is pushed with threats and vitriol
There is also panic in the US Congress through much of this as the White House’s actions were so staggeringly stupid. The state department even trying to make statements implying sitting senators were lying about Rubio’s explanations for why the US was presenting Russia’s demands as its own.
Curious if the discharge petition for the Russia sanctions bill goes anywhere after this.
Where do you get that number from? It's a bit over $200b from January through October according to the Treasury, of which $60b-ish are from previous existing tariffs.
he gets his info from the ass-kissers in his orbit, so probably. His brain is mush at this point and his handlers are definitely committing elder abuse
Because we need more unrepentant lunatics who will break the law on Trump's say so on the streets.
Edit:
He posted another incoherent, falsehood filled rant complaining about Ukraine. Zelenskyy has expressed gratitude countless times.
Putin on the other hand insults him and makes fun of him, but he of course never ever complains about Russia, because he loves Putin and is too stupid to understand that he's being bullied.
I also want to point out that less than a month ago Trump himself gave the countries buying oil from Russia sanctions waivers, against the wishes of the EU, which has been trying to wrangle them for years to drop Russian imports.
